Core Insights - The federal government shutdown has ended, and statistical agencies are working to catch up on missed economic releases [1][4] - Delayed economic reports can complicate decisions for investors, businesses, and policymakers [3] Economic Data Release Schedule - Key reports that have been rescheduled include: - Q3 employment cost index on Dec. 10 (originally Oct. 31) - September U.S. trade deficit and wholesale inventories on Dec. 11 (originally Nov. 4) - November U.S. employment report on Dec. 16 (originally Nov. 7 and Dec. 5; October household survey canceled) - November Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Dec. 18 (originally Nov. 13 and Dec. 10) - Q3 Gross Domestic Product initial estimate on Dec. 23 (originally Oct. 30; subsequent estimate postponed) [5][6] Canceled and Unscheduled Reports - Several reports have been canceled or are yet to be rescheduled, including: - September housing starts and new home sales (originally scheduled for Oct. 17 and Oct. 24) - Advanced reports on trade deficit, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for September, October, and November [6][7]

you think Kevin Hasset ultimately would be a good good choice whe when it comes to economic monetary policy market stability all all the important things for the Fed chair >> I think all five candidates on the short list um are qualified experienced and I think reduce the concern that we once had that you will get a purely political appointment >> cuz that that was the concern with Hasset and I have to say just based on my own reporting of talking to you know bank executives and and hedge funds executives t ...

Core Insights - President Donald Trump is expected to announce a new Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas, as Jerome Powell's term expires in May [1][6] - Trump aims to appoint a candidate who is willing to lower the federal funds rate, indicating a shift in monetary policy direction [2][3] Candidate Considerations - Five candidates are under consideration for the Fed Chair position: Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock director Rick Rieder [2][6] - Trump's previous criticisms of Powell include accusations of maintaining excessively high interest rates, which he believes hinder economic growth [3][6] Economic Implications - The Federal Open Market Committee, which consists of 12 members, votes on interest rates, but the Chair plays a crucial role in setting the agenda and influencing monetary policy decisions [3] - The federal funds rate impacts borrowing costs across various loans, and the Fed's dual mandate focuses on maintaining low inflation and high employment [4]

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Monday said he sees increased downside risks to employment, though repeated his view that policymakers need to proceed slowly as interest rates approach neutral https://t.co/KW8HHgQAG5 ...

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran on Wednesday described data that showed employment at US companies increased in October as “a welcome surprise,” though he reiterated interest rates need to be lower https://t.co/FgXF2BVrdR ...

Friday's cooler thanex expected CPI print is boosting expectations for the Fed to trim rates by a quarter point at this week's meeting. Joining us right now is former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. She's also a CNBC contributor.And Loretta, what do you think. The the numbers were a little weaker than anticipated, but you're still looking at uh inflation up better than 3% on a year-over-year basis. >> Yeah, Becky, thanks.Good morning. You're you're exactly right. If you looked at the headlines comin ...

Federal Reserve Policy - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, reaching its lowest level since September 17th [1] - Fed Chair Powell suggested, but did not explicitly state, that rate cuts are likely to continue [3] - The Fed judged it appropriate to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance at its September meeting [4] - Powell indicated the Fed might soon halt the reduction of its balance sheet (QT) due to signs of tightening liquidity conditions [6] - Powell's comments did not decisively endorse future rate cuts, but he also did not push back against market expectations for two cuts this year [8] Economic Outlook - Rising downside risks to employment have shifted the Fed's assessment of the balance of risks [4] - Data suggests higher downside risks for employment and inflation, primarily due to tariffs rather than a broader inflation issue [5] - Prior to the shutdown, data indicated the economy was on a firmer growth path [5] - The Fed is monitoring liquidity conditions, including repo rates [6] Market Observations - The market reacted positively to Powell's comments regarding the potential halt of balance sheet reduction [6] - The market firmly expects two rate cuts this year [8]

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve (Fed) considered lowering interest rates, with debate primarily focused on the number of cuts this year, potentially two or three [1] - The Fed decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) on September 17th [1] - One expert suggests the Fed should not cut interest rates and should have considered hiking them by 0.25% [2] - There are concerns that the Fed's September to December rate cuts last year were premature, based on a potentially flawed assessment of inflation [3] - All 12 voting members cut interest rates by 0.25%, raising questions about the Fed's priorities [4] Dual Mandate & Economic Objectives - The Fed's dual mandate (controlling both inflation and employment) is seen as an inconsistency, hindering its ability to effectively manage either objective [5][6] - The European Central Bank's single objective (inflation) is contrasted with the Fed's dual mandate [6] - The current administration is focused on maintaining a strong economy and low unemployment [7] - There's a divergence between the administration's focus on economic growth and the Treasury Secretary's desire to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, potentially creating conflicting objectives [8] Economic Strength & AI Impact - While growth numbers suggest a strong economy, employment figures may not reflect this strength [9] - The AI sector is significantly supporting the economy, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this boom and the potential for a "hiccup" [10] - AI is expected to be a significant long-term phenomenon, but there will be failures along the way, with potential hype exceeding actual value [12] - A potential failure of some AI companies in the next six months could have a stock market-wide impact [13] - The non-AI economy is underperforming, raising concerns about stagflation (weak economy with rising inflation) [13] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The Fed's 2% inflation target is not being met, with inflation running at 3% [13] - The New York Fed's survey of consumers indicates an increase in inflation expectations from 3.2% to 3.4% over the next year [13] - The Fed should prioritize dollar stability by maintaining a low and stable inflation rate [14][15] - Employment should be the responsibility of the US Treasury [15]

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams supported further interest-rate cuts this year [1] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring US employment [1]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials initially agreed on further easing after a quarter-point interest rate cut, though some expressed caution [1] - The Fed's decision to cut rates was influenced by a perceived shift in the balance of risks, with downside risks to employment increasing and inflation risks either diminishing or remaining unchanged [2] - A balanced approach is needed when addressing employment and inflation, focusing on the side of the mandate that is further from the goal [4] - There is an ongoing debate regarding how restrictive the Federal Reserve's policy is, influencing market perceptions [3][9][10] - The consensus leans towards future rate cuts, with the primary question being the extent of these cuts [9][10] Inflation Outlook - Some believe productivity and lower net migration will exert downward pressure on inflation, with employment not being a significant source of inflation [5] - Concerns about inflation stem from tariffs and elevated inflation expectations, with businesses planning to pass on tariff increases to consumers; most expect tariff effects to materialize by the end of next year [6] Economic Factors - Artificial intelligence (AI) is being closely monitored for its significant impact on GDP and investment, as well as its potential to reduce employment [7]