Market Trends & Trade Impact - A trade deal with the EU removes a negative surprise from the markets [2] - US consumers are likely to bear the brunt of tariffs, potentially slowing the US economy [3] - Trade concerns may fade if the European deal is finalized and China trade issues are postponed [2] - The market has largely priced in a positive scenario, potentially overvaluing current conditions [7] - Fear-based investing has generally performed poorly in the past decade [11] Investment Strategies & Sector Focus - Staying invested is recommended, particularly in sectors with secular drivers unrelated to trade, such as AI [13] - Favored sectors include US large-cap equities, tech, communication services, financials, and utilities [13][14] - Less favored sectors include small caps, emerging market equities, and consumer discretionary, due to their greater exposure to trade and tariffs [15] - Equities, especially in favored sectors, are relatively attractive compared to bonds, which offer near-zero after-tax, after-inflation yields [16] Market Valuation & Outlook - The S&P 500 is up 12% since the Liberation Day announcement, exceeding initial expectations [10] - NASDAQ 100's forward earnings multiple is at 28 times, below the pandemic peak of 30 times [11]

So we have a Fed meeting and then we have a jobs report. Let's start with the Fed meeting. The decision itself, not expecting too many fireworks there.But as always, there's a lot to talk about in that press conference, Julia. Absolutely. There's a lot going on.Of course, Chair Powell will put on his best poker face and reassuring voice and tone, which he's very, very good at, and say that, look, that things are there's a lot of disruption going on so far. You know, you've got a little bit of creeping highe ...

Foreign companies that have borne the costs of Donald Trump’s tariffs until now may not be able to absorb them for ever. The president loves defying his adversaries, in the economics profession and beyond. But he is always his own worst enemy https://t.co/xrh25x0KPT ...

Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The week includes the Jolt survey, consumer confidence data, and the Fed survey [2] - ADP number is expected to be on the low side, with 82,000 expected [3] - GDP adjustments are anticipated due to import handling [3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator will be released [4] - Non-farm payrolls are expected to be 102,000, but previous reports have surprised to the upside [4] - The Fed meeting and announcement are significant, with potential dissents from Waller and Bowman [5] - There's a very low probability (2.1%) of a Fed rate cut in July, but a 66% probability for September and 63% for December, indicating expectations of two cuts this year [6][7] Tariffs & Economic Impact - The removal of crazy high tariffs and uncertainty about tariffs is noted [9][10] - The focus shifts to the economic impacts of tariffs, including potential inflation and weakened growth [10] - The stock market's reaction to these economic factors is being observed, with some suggesting a potential disconnect between the stock market and the economic outlook [10][11]

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum is getting squeezed between Donald Trump's tariffs and sanctions and her party's political scandals, says @JPSpinetto (via @opinion) https://t.co/50kH57Pfdd ...

LIVE NOW: Donald Trump’s tariffs are changing Europe’s approach to Chinese investment — and some EU leaders are keen to welcome Beijing's money and influence.🎧 Ask your questions in our Live Q&Ahttps://t.co/KfrIBnf2eS https://t.co/ry2FpdSmJ6 ...

Geopolitical Impact - Donald Trump's tariffs are reshaping Europe's stance on Chinese investment [1] - Some EU leaders are showing interest in welcoming Chinese capital and influence [1] Investment Climate - The evolving geopolitical landscape may lead to increased Chinese investment in Europe [1]

Donald Trump has won the Hulkamania tariffs brawl he started, says @johnauthers. His bullied victims never came together in self-defense (via @opinion) https://t.co/ZLvi9MPb8y ...

Donald Trump has pledged tariffs of 50% on Brazilian exports and threatened its president. But Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appears reinvigorated by the feud https://t.co/6QHhkS3BAqIllustration: Ricardo Santos https://t.co/939bXAefRN ...

President Trump and several officials from his administration took a field trip this week to the Federal Reserve. They wanted to check out the renovations that have gone over budget and continue keeping the pressure on Fed Chair Jay Powell to cut rates. The first opportunity to do that is next week, just a few days before tariffs are set to spike unless more countries make a deal with the administration. This week, the president celebrated more trade deals and frameworks, particularly one with Japan that Tr ...