I want to kick off the conversation with the fact that the Fed has been waiting to see what the impact of tariffs will be on inflation over the summer months before charting a course forward on interest rates. And we got the first reading of that this week with the June CPI. We saw that tick up a tenth of a percentage point to 2.9%.That was up from 2.8% previously. Are you seeing any indication that tariffs are pushing up inflation now. I think you saw it on goods.If you look at the core goods inflation, es ...

When we raise a price, it's not as if the consumer just accepts it. Where do American customers for wine go if they decide the price is too high. I'm not going to buy that.Where are you going to find champagne. Where are you going to find Shatona Pop. Where you going to find Keianti. You're not going to find it in Oregon or California.A Fingerlakes wine, let's just be clear, is nothing like a Napa Valley wine. Nothing like a wine from southern Italy or northern Italy or the center of Spain etc. My my gist i ...

But the people and few people have fought harder for the bill than we're signing than uh some of the people here today. You you have been unbelievable. It's our White House AI and cryptozar David Saxs who has done such a great job. And I did his I did his uh he had a he has a show now. He become a showman. a couple of years ago, right? It's probably two years ago now in San Francisco and I did his show and I heard he's a very smart guy and we had a great show. You kept it going a lot longer and you got Is t ...

Economic Concerns & US Dollar - The US national debt has increased significantly, from $10 trillion to $37 trillion, with projections of an additional $20 trillion over the next decade [3][4] - The US dollar is experiencing a decline, down 20% in the last six months, raising concerns about its status as the global reserve currency [6] - The decline of the US dollar poses a risk to the US's global dominance and could lead to a decrease in the value of money [5][15] Trade & Tariff Policy - Potential blanket unilateral tariff rate of 10% to 15% is being considered [1] - Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is causing hesitation in international budgeting and investment decisions for multinational corporations [23][24] - Tariffs are contributing to the return of inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [26] Political & Economic Impact - Political extremism and reckless behavior are contributing to the growing debt and potential fiscal crisis [12] - Irresponsible tax and spending policies under both Democratic and Republican leadership have diminished the US's standing and currency [15] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is a bigger issue than the tax numbers themselves [27]

Market Concerns & Tariffs - The market's biggest concern revolves around tariffs due to the uncertainty of their endpoint and potential effects on sectors, market capitalizations, and investment styles [1][2] - The EU tariffs are significant due to the EU being a major trade partner, and the lack of a livable agreement introduces volatility [4] - Europe is considering other trade partners to offset potential losses with the US [4] - A livable agreement between the US and the EU is expected to be reached, potentially at a lower rate than the discussed 15% [5] US Exceptionalism & Economic Resilience - Oppenheimer Asset Management believes US exceptionalism remains intact due to innovation in technology [6][7] - The US is seen as the "cleanest dirty shirt" in a "hamper of dirty shirts," highlighting its relative strength compared to other countries, particularly regarding technology [7] - The US consumer remains remarkably resilient despite multiple interest rate hikes and pauses [3] - No recession is expected [3] Global Market Dynamics - International markets have outperformed the US recently, driven by lower valuations and expectations of tariff agreements [6][7] - The rest of the world feeds into globalization [7] - Technology is deeply embedded in societies, businesses, and consumers worldwide [8]

Donald Trump is readying plans for industry-specific tariffs to kick in alongside his country-by-country duties in two weeks, ramping up his push to reshape the US' standing in the global trading system by penalizing purchases from abroad https://t.co/k0XwDkVhFu ...

Inventory & Tariffs - Many shippers front-loaded inventory ahead of tariffs, leading to unusual inventory levels for this time of year, with 77% of Flexport's customers reporting sufficient stock [2][3] - A temporary surge in airfreight demand is observed from Southeast Asian countries to beat the August 1st deadline for higher tariffs [4] - The industry anticipates potential shortages if tariff rates significantly increase, impacting businesses [6] Trade Lane Dynamics - China to US trade lane is down approximately 16% year-over-year, an improvement from a 60% drop following the April 2nd tariff announcement [7] - China's overall exports are up 5%, but exports to the US are down 16%, indicating a significant shift [8] - Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand and Vietnam, experienced a surge in exports, but face higher duty rates announced for August 1st [8] Red Sea & Suez Canal Disruption - Container ships have not been transiting the Suez Canal since December 2023 due to Houthi activity, impacting approximately 30% of global container traffic [12][13] - The disruption in the Red Sea is keeping ocean freight rates artificially high, with no foreseeable return to normal [13]

Potential Impacts of Tariffs - Proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals could lead to higher prices [1] - Higher insurance premiums are a potential consequence of the tariffs [1] - Drug shortages are a possible risk associated with the tariffs [1]

Brazil’s president may have won the first battle over Trump's tariffs, but he won't win the war without a comprehensive deal, says @JPSpinetto (via @opinion) https://t.co/WcQ2rKn2Hy ...

"We see these tariffs as self-defeating and an act of economic self-harm."Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers tells @ocrook he is concerned about the effect of US tariffs on the global economy https://t.co/qgrPVhNwOJ https://t.co/4rwadzR6lq ...