Trade Policy - Japan stated that tariffs are not a suitable method for correcting imbalances [1] - Countries with imbalances should resolve them through internal measures [1]

Monetary Policy & Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is crucial for achieving stable economic outcomes, especially low and stable inflation [3][4] - Markets would be concerned if central bank independence were threatened [4] - The Fed leadership likely believes tariff effects won't cause prolonged high inflation, especially given the less tight labor market compared to 2022 [8] - The FOMC holds a range of views regarding the appropriateness of lowering interest rates while tariff effects are present [11] Economic Outlook & Data Analysis - Recent data suggests the labor market doesn't require significant rate cuts, and underlying inflation trends are moving towards 2% [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates three rate cuts later this year, potentially starting in September, due to a relaxed view on inflation [5][6] - Consumer spending appears somewhat softer when adjusted for tariff-driven price increases [14] - Tariffs are expected to slow the pace of economic growth due to their function as taxes and the uncertainty they create [14] - While tariffs may lead to slower consumption and final demand growth, other factors like bank earnings, M&A, and IPO activity suggest increased business and consumer confidence [15] - The economy is not expected to enter recessionary territory [15] - Growth for the year is expected to be in the low 1% range, below the trend pace of around 2% [19]

>> Welcome back to Squawk Box. President Trump saying he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell, though he has been toying quite publicly with that idea. Senator Elizabeth Warren has been defending the chairman's role at the FOMC.And Senator Warren joins us this morning. She is the lead Democrat on the Banking Committee. Good morning to you.We just had a guest on in Kevin Warsh. Some someone who folks have speculated about potentially taking that job. He openly talked about the idea of regime change.And ...

Trade Relations - The Trump administration attributed the decline in ethanol shipments to Brazil to tariffs [1] - The loss of the US biofuel's largest export market is partially due to America's own actions [1]

Anything left unsaid, anything that we need to give extra emphasis to. Do you think when it comes to President Trump's criticism of Chair Powell and how this still sits in the market, I was wondering whether we get any clues from what happens at the short end of the U.S. Treasury curve as to how much Fed independence there is, I suppose how much the two moves on criticism from the White House. I think that's a great way to look at it in terms of like we did see the tear come lower but didn't completely coll ...

It is time for money, power, politics. Trump's next big tariff deadline is August 1st, about two and a half weeks away from now. So far, he appears to have only landed a few primary agreements, and he has sent dozens of letters to countries dictating new tariff rates.But today, he insisted all those letters now count as deals and said there are more coming. We have some uh we have some pretty good deals to announce, but every time we send out a letter, that's a deal. The big one really is going to be on the ...

is day 178 of the second Trump administration and Donald J. Trump just cannot figure out how to deal with the Epstein backlash. Here's a suggestion.Stop talking about it. Well, he's not. Today, he tried something we very rarely see.He directly attacked his own base, calling them weaklings for falling for what he now calls a hoax. I I can't explain it well enough. I'm going to have my colleague G Garrett Hake give you all the details.Tonight, President Trump lashing out at his own supporters amid the ongoing ...

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market reacted negatively to rumors of President Trump firing Federal Reserve chief Pal, with longer-term interest rates increasing from 497% to 507% in an hour, and the S&P 500 decreasing from 6,254 to 6,201 [3][4] - The market rallied when the President denied the rumors, indicating that the stock and bond markets do not want Pal ousted [3][5] - The market is questioning whether Trump is wrong about firing Pal, as stocks are supposed to benefit from lower interest rates, but didn't soar when the rumor of Pal's firing surfaced [8] - The consumer price index showed signs of inflation from the President's tariffs, with higher prices for clothing, furniture, cleaning products, food away from home, meats, poultry, coffee, gasoline, and even soft drinks [10][11] - The Fed is waiting to see the full impact of tariffs before cutting rates, as the economy is not currently in a slowdown, and employment is at 41% [14][15] Big Banks Earnings Analysis - The big banks' year-to-date gains ranged from 7% for Bank of America to nearly 25% for Goldman Sachs, setting a high bar for earnings season [32] - JP Morgan raised its full-year net interest income forecast by $1 billion, but also raised its expense guidance by $500 million [34][35] - Wells Fargo cut its full-year forecast for net interest income, causing the stock to drop more than 5% [38][39] - Citigroup reported a big top and bottom line beat, with net interest income more than $1 billion above the consensus estimate, and the stock jumped 37% [42] - Bank of America managed a bottom line beat, but missed on the top line due to a nasty net interest income miss [45] - Goldman Sachs had the best report of the big banks, with investment banking up 26% year-over-year, equities trading up 36%, and M&A advisory revenue up 71% year-over-year [48][49] - Morgan Stanley reported healthy top and bottom line beats, with wealth and investment management having $82 trillion in combined total client assets [49] Cheesecake Factory Analysis - Cheesecake Factory's stock is up over 31% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 65% gain over the same period [53] - The company has 350 locations across the US and Canada, including 215 flagship Cheesecake Factory restaurants [54] - The diverse menu eliminates the "no vote" when deciding where to go out to eat, and the wide variety of price points offers value for everyone [57] - Cheesecake Factory's annualized unit volume is $125 million, an obscenely large number for the restaurant industry [58] - The company has been named one of Fortune Magazine's 100 best places to work for the 12th consecutive year [60] - Recent operational performance and notable results were driven by the company's talented team and ongoing focus on staffing and retention [62] - The company delivered impressive unit level margins of 166% in its most recent quarter, while Wall Street was only looking for 158% [66] - The company is planning to open 25 new locations this year across all their brands, with North Italia's unified at $775 million and Flower Child's at $46 million [67][68] First Horizon Analysis - First Horizon delivered a strong enough quarter to make the stock rally, with a small revenue beat plus a nice 3 cent earnings beat off a 42 cent basis [78][79] - The customer has become very encouraged and confident over the course of the last 90 days, with momentum building across the quarter [81] - The company's CFO said that the high rates has really stifled mortgage originations, but the team has done a really nice job of consolidating market share [86] - Lower rates would actually accelerate growth in the economy, and would have a stimulative effect in the near term [90][91] - There's a real opportunity in the middle market space, and there's a very good place for First Horizon in this space [93][94] Investment Strategy - When a stock starts to go lower, it will often keep going lower until all the people who don't know anything are done selling, and you get a terrific price from their ignorance [113] - If you own a stock and you see it go down, first check the conference call transcript, then put it through a chatbot and ask if anything went wrong that you might have missed [115][116] - If it checks out, then the answer is you need to do some buying on weakness, because the weakness won't last for long [116]

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he expects tariffs to have a bigger impact on inflation in the months ahead, making the US central bank’s current restrictive stance "entirely appropriate" https://t.co/jugr8i2yCg ...

Six months after his return to the White House, how effective have Donald Trump’s tariffs been? Our Big Mac index suggests that the dollar isn’t as competitive as he might have hoped https://t.co/gSWcJaGh1r ...