When you look at trade negotiations right now, could they actually change the outcome of the European economy. Well, I think that there's going to be a very relevant factor. And if you see, for instance, if you watch our our predictions, they are different alternatives, different different scenarios according to the different outcomes that we might have.I hope that, you know, the negotiations will be finalized. So at least this, you know, will deliver a little bit of predictability because now, you know, th ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on U.S. Treasuries (USTs) and a bearish stance on the U.S. Dollar (USD) [1] Core Insights - Tariffs are significant, with U.S. government revenue from tariffs annualizing over 1% of U.S. GDP, indicating that they do not represent a zero-sum game [1] - U.S. importers paid tariffs equivalent to 65% of corporate income taxes in 2024, and these tariffs represented 15% of non-financial corporate profits after tax in Q1 2025 [10][11] - If corporations absorbed all tariff expenses, profit margins would have fallen to 11.7% from 13.8%, below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [10][26] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - U.S. importers' tariff payments in June annualized to $327 billion, or 1.1% of Q1 2025 nominal GDP [12][16] - The analysis suggests that tariffs act as a significant tax burden on corporations, impacting profit margins and overall economic growth [11][29] Corporate Profit Margins - In Q1 2025, non-financial corporations reported $2.127 trillion in profit after tax, with profit margins sitting at 13.8% [22] - The report highlights that if tariffs were fully absorbed, profit margins would drop significantly, indicating potential economic stress [26][34] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the economic backdrop is skewed to the downside, with airline passenger traffic slowing and potential impacts from tariffs expected to manifest in inflation data [30] - The recommendation is to stay long U.S. Treasuries and short the USD, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [1][30]

Market Performance & Sentiment - The first half of the year saw an extraordinary market bounce from the April lows, with significant intra-quarter swings [1][2][3] - Sentiment change was notable, with Meta up almost 30% and JP Morgan up almost 20% [2] - The NASDAQ is on the verge of making a new relative high against the S&P, a key indicator for market players [7] - The S&P and NASDAQ made brief new highs, closing the first half near all-time highs with a VIX below 17 [8][9] Economic Factors & Risks - The first half of the year was one of the worst for the US dollar since the 1970s, with a nearly 7% move lower in the dollar index during Q2 [5] - A weaker dollar is beneficial for multinationals and the big tech trade [9] - The Fed lowered its growth target for the US for the second half of the year [10] - There is confusion regarding the Fed's next move, with scenarios for both lowering and maintaining interest rates [11][12] Sector Performance & Concerns - The reemergence of big tech companies has been a significant driver [6] - While tech may continue to drive the market higher, caution is advised due to potential shifts in the dollar or crude oil prices [9] - Energy, materials, home builders, retail, and pharma sectors are underperforming, indicating a lack of broad-based rally [9][10]

Joining us now is Evercore chairman emeritus and black rockck co-founder Ralph Schlaststein right here on set. It's great to have you. Welcome.It's great to be here. Let's start right there. Uh because what what an incredible second quarter we had.Uh tariff tantrum. Is it over. Is is the fear about peak tariffs behind us.Well, I I think you can never say it's completely behind us because I don't think we have a absolutely certain path as to where the president and his team are going to take the tariff discu ...

🔥 UPDATE: Most major banks now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25–100bps starting as early as July, while a few still see no cuts in 2025. https://t.co/rjnPVpIMYM ...

Interest Rate Impact - A 1% interest rate may solve the looming debt bubble [1] - A 1% interest rate provides an opportunity to refinance debt over an elongated period [1] - Minimal interest could make paying off massive debt more realistic [1] - Younger generations may be able to consider buying homes without massive debt overhang [1] Economic Consequences - The cost of goods will increase if interest rates go to 1% [1] - The value of the dollar will decrease significantly [2] Opportunities with Dollars - Opportunities include buying a house, buying a car, refinancing debt, and using credit cards [2]

Interest Rate Impact - Cost of goods will increase due to interest rate changes [1] - The dollar's purchasing power will decrease significantly [1] - Lower interest rates make buying a house, buying a car, refinancing debt, and credit card interest more affordable for those with capital [1] Investment Strategies - Individuals with the ability to save capital should consider two strategies [1] - Strategy 1: Accumulate as much capital as possible in "safe" ETFs like S&P, Nasdaq, or money market funds until rates are below 3%, then buy a house [2] - Strategy 2: Invest aggressively in assets like individual shares, crypto, and luxury collectibles, as their value is expected to increase parabolically with significantly lower rates [2]

WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG ETF IQ. " I'M SCARLET FU. KATIE: I'M KATIE GREIFELD. REMARKABLE TURNAROUND FOR STOCK SPLIT KATIE: IT HAS BEEN STUNNING. THE MORE THAN $15 TRILLION GLOBAL ETF INDUSTRY, WITH THE FIRST HALF OF 2025 NEARLY IN THE BOOK, STOCKS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH. S&P 500 ON PAYS FOR ITS BEST QUARTER SINCE DECEMBER 2023. SCARLET: WITH TWO-YEAR YIELDS AT LOWS, WE LOOK AHEAD AT WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THE BOND MARKET RICK RIEDER OF BLACKROCK. KATIE: AND THE NEXT GENERATION OF CRYPTO FUNDS EDGING CLOSER TO AVAIL ...

Welcome back. The S&P 500 NASDAQ hitting record highs this morning as we close out the first half of the year. Joining us now, Apollo global management chief economist Torson Sllock to give his outlook for the economy in the second half of the year.Torson, very good morning to you. Good to see you. Thanks for having me.Um, just that snapshot on what we learned there from Kevin Hasset and the developments over the weekend. Is is your expectation that the big beautiful bill ultimately does whether it's this w ...

Scott Bessent indicated it wouldn’t make sense for the government to ramp up sales of longer-term securities given where yields are today, though he held out hope that interest rates across maturities will be falling as inflation slows. https://t.co/0JlIiHjDpl ...