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Rise in AUM to Aid BlackRock's Q1 Earnings, Higher Expenses to Hurt
ZACKSยท 2025-04-09 15:50
Core Viewpoint - BlackRock is expected to report improved quarterly revenues and earnings for Q1 2025, with a significant year-over-year growth in assets under management (AUM) and revenues, despite facing higher expenses and lower non-operating income [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Expectations - BlackRock's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by increased revenues and AUM growth, although higher expenses and lower non-operating income were challenges [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM is $11.79 trillion, reflecting a 12.6% year-over-year increase, while the company's own estimate is $11.78 trillion [7]. - Revenue from investment advisory, administration fees, and securities-lending is projected to grow to $4.38 billion, indicating a 15.9% year-over-year rise, with the company's estimate at $4.31 billion [8]. Group 2: Revenue Components - Investment advisory performance fees are estimated at $224.1 million, showing a 9.8% growth, while distribution fees are expected to be $318.1 million, a 2.7% increase [9]. - Technology services revenues are projected at $446.9 million, suggesting an 18.5% year-over-year rise, with the company's estimate at $429.5 million [9]. - Advisory and other revenues are expected to reach $64.4 million, indicating a 9.2% year-over-year increase, with the company's estimate at $60.2 million [10]. Group 3: Expense Outlook - Total expenses for BlackRock are anticipated to rise to $3.53 billion, reflecting a 16.2% year-over-year increase, driven by restructuring initiatives and inorganic expansion efforts [11]. Group 4: Major Developments - BlackRock completed the acquisition of Preqin in March, enhancing its private market capabilities to meet client demand [12][13]. - The company launched a bitcoin exchange-traded product, iShares Bitcoin, in Europe, following the success of its U.S. fund tracking the cryptocurrency [14]. Group 5: Earnings Predictions - The chances of BlackRock beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings are considered low, with an Earnings ESP of -2.06% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [15][16]. - The consensus estimate for first-quarter earnings is $10.69, revised downward by 1.4%, indicating a 9% increase from the previous year [16].