I'm a little bit more concerned about the direction of inflation to be honest with you than I am employment. The Fed's got a much more difficult degree of landing because believe it or not, the Fed gets a weekly update of the ADP estimate. Most people don't understand that.So, the Fed's not flying blind when it comes to the labor market, right. Inflation's a little bit more difficult. They're probably going to be talking to the MIT Harvard billion uh prices project.and to get an idea of what's going on. The ...

V i e w p o i n t | 29 Sep 2025 15:06:58 ET │ 12 pages US Economics CITI'S TAKE A flurry of Fed speak following the resumption of cuts at the September FOMC meeting confirms that Fed officials continue to differ in their views on the economy and monetary policy. The 10 Fed officials who want to cut 75bp or more this year agree with Powell's view that downside risk to employment imply moving rates further toward neutral, but the 9 officials who want to cut 50bp or less remain concerned about upside risk to i ...

Inflation Concerns - Service sector inflation is showing signs of life, with prices paid by service sector companies for inputs increasing, suggesting upside risks to service sector inflation [1] - Services make up 60% of the CPI index, so a higher rise in service sector inflation suggests that overall inflation may be more sticky and elevated [1] - The consensus forecast expects inflation to be 3% for the next 12 months, while the Fed's target is 2%, indicating a potential upside risk to inflation if the economy doesn't slow down [2] - Goods inflation is moving higher partly because of tariffs, and service sector inflation is also showing upward pressure, leading to the conclusion that a pause in rate cuts may be warranted to assess alternative inflation indicators [2] - If inflation stays higher for longer, consumers will face higher prices, impacting real spending, especially for price-sensitive consumers [2] Economic Outlook - The absence of government data on non-farm payrolls and inflation makes it challenging for markets and the Fed to assess the true state of the economy [1] - Economists have been predicting slowdowns that haven't materialized, and the delayed negative effects of the trade war may not arrive, suggesting the economy may not slow down as expected [1] - Alternative data sources to watch in the absence of government data include Redbook same-store retail sales (weekly), OpenTable restaurant data (daily), and Star hotel data (weekly) [1] AI Impact - The AI story now makes up 35% of the S&P 500, with the 10 biggest stocks accounting for almost 40% of the overall S&P, indicating a high concentration [2] - Larger companies are beginning to report a slowdown in their adoption rate of AI, posing a risk to the economic outlook if the AI story starts to fade [3] - There is a very high concentration in the AI story that's driving the stock market forward, which is somewhat disconnected from what's going on in the economic outlook [5]

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This uptick of inflation that we've been seeing coupled with the jobs payroll jobs numbers deteriorating have put the central bank in a bit of a sticky spot where you're getting deterioration of both sides of the mandate at the same time. If the inflation looks like it's going to be transitory, and I say that word with with with some fear, >> then I think the employment side of the mandate would be dominant. But that you see this uptick in inflation and particularly the uptick in services inflation which is ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expresses caution regarding rapid interest rate cuts due to rising inflation and deteriorating employment conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Employment - Goolsbee highlights an uptick in inflation alongside deteriorating payroll job numbers, creating a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve as both sides of its dual mandate are under pressure [2]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in September, with indications of potential further cuts before year-end [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Goolsbee, a voting member of the FOMC, acknowledges concerns about inflation and employment but notes that data suggests a stable labor market [3]. - He believes the underlying economy can support gradual interest rate reductions over time from current levels [3].

Well, as you know by now, there is no official jobs report today because of the government shutdown. But we found another way to try and get a look at employment in the month of September. We're going to call this our own squawk survey.Evans S is the CEO of Aura Intelligence. That's a platform for workforce analytics. Bill Dunlberg is the chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses.Both have real data on the state of jobs in this country. And of course, we have our very own senior e ...

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