Let's talk markets, uh, Fed, interest rates, inflation, and so much more with a guy who you probably need to know even better than you may already. David Zervos is here. He's chief market strategist at Jeffre, CNBC contributor, and yes, now he is officially on the list of candidates being considered for the job of Fed chairman.So, good morning. Now, do you have to watch your words in a different way, do you feel like. I I I think that's probably fair to say.I would also say that uh you know I kind of have t ...

Market Overview & Mortgage Rates - Single-family permits have been declining, impacting smaller builders disproportionately [1][2] - High mortgage rates are hindering housing market recovery; a rate of 6% is seen as a potential catalyst for improvement [2] - Housing market performance tends to improve around a 6% mortgage rate, but maintaining this rate is crucial [3] - Achieving sub-6% mortgage rates is challenging given current Federal Reserve policy and inflation levels [4] - Bond market anticipation has already factored in a 2% rate decrease from 8% in 2023 to 6% in 2024, even without Fed rate cuts [7] Housing Sales & Demand - New home sales remain near 2019 levels, indicating existing demand, but are sensitive to rate fluctuations between 6% and 7% [5] - Existing home sales remain low, while new home sales have been relatively stable since 2018 [5] - The market is missing approximately 1 million mortgage buyers compared to the peak of the last decade, which saw nearly 6 million total home sales [10] Economic Factors & Future Outlook - Residential renovation projects are slowing down, signaling a potential economic downturn [6] - Weaker labor data is needed to potentially drive mortgage rates lower under current Fed policy [8] - Improved mortgage spreads are a positive sign for the rest of the year and into 2026, potentially allowing for lower rates even without significant yield drops [9] - Historically, housing markets recover through wage growth, household formation, and eventual rate decreases [10][12] - Getting mortgage rates down to 6% and holding them there is necessary to stimulate single-family permits, housing construction, and job creation [12]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 FED CHAIR POWELL IS SCHEDULED TO DELIVER A SPEECH NEXT WEEK ON THE FED’S POLICY FRAMEWORK. https://t.co/qTxHKZx944 ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: The probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 99.8%. https://t.co/vfHn97vxPY ...

Yes, Bloomberg reporting was on the spot here, Mike, the idea of a fill in fed governor, we talked about this just yesterday. Why raid the council of economic advisors, though, for the job. Well, obviously, Myron and the president think it would be a more influential position to have him on the Fed, where he would be able to publicly criticized Fed policy if he doesn't like it and maybe help shape the policy going forward.The issue is he's got to leave the CIA. So if he does that, it seems logical that the ...

Market Reaction and Data Trust - The market is likely to react to the surprise in data, potentially leading to back and forth trading sessions [2][3] - The industry continues to trust the data, despite recent revisions and estimations in inflationary reports [5] - Every report needs scrutiny due to the coinciding turn in Fed policy, requiring an overall mosaic approach [6] Fed Policy and Labor Market - The Fed might have acted differently on rate policy with correct data, but full consensus for a cut last week was uncertain [8] - The market perceives the labor market as more important than inflation, a view telegraphed by the Fed [8][9] - Fears of the Fed being behind the curve are expected to escalate into September [9] - Political challenges of elevated unemployment are considered more acute to the Fed historically [11] Investment Strategy - Current guidance advises clients to stay overly diversified, which has driven performance across risk spectrums this year [12] - Fixed income acted as a ballast during the equity drawdown, and some foreign markets have been supportive [12][13] - The industry is constantly looking for opportunities to add or incrementally take down risk depending on the environment [13]

followed all the twists and turns for us today and got us up to speed with where we are. I mean, what a day. Grasso I'm just going to going to start right there.Do you think that this I know we're not all policy experts here but was this at all sort of strategic and attempt to like lob out the idea how markets reacted. Yeah. And then take it from there.>> He's done that before I think I think he he is good at doing that. That's part of his strategy I don't think that he the term is up in May 2026. So I don' ...

ANNOUNCER: THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER FROM D. C. JOE: WELCOME.THE WORLD WAITS FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP ON WHETHER TO JOIN ISRAEL OFFENSIVELY AGAINST IRAN. PRES. TRUMP: I LIKE TO MAKE A FINALS NAL DECISION ONE SECOND BEFORE IT IS DUE.JOE: WE TALKED TO MEGAN O'SULLIVAN. TYLER: THE CONFLICT SENDING OIL SURGING. WE HAVE A LOOK AT HOW THE INDUSTRY IS PREPARING.JOE: REPUBLICAN INFIGHTING INTENSIFIES. DEMOCRATS SHARPEN ATTACKS. >> REPUBLICANS HAVE MADE CLEAR THEY ARE WILLING TO THROW MILLIONS OF AMERICANS UNDER THE BUS S ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently in the low-to-mid-6% range and are not expected to return to 4% in the near future, with predictions suggesting a gradual decline over the next five years as inflation stabilizes and the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative stance [2][11][12] Group 1: Current Mortgage Rates and Predictions - Interest rates on 15- and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are unlikely to return to 4% soon, with expectations of slight decreases as economic conditions improve [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is closely linked to mortgage rates, and elevated bond yields will keep mortgage rates high [2] - Economists predict that mortgage rates will remain above 6% through 2026, with only gradual declines anticipated [11][12] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Factors - The historically low mortgage rates of 3.35% in May 2013 were a result of the Federal Reserve's response to the 2007 financial crisis, which included lowering the federal funds rate and purchasing Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities [3][4] - Significant economic downturns have historically driven mortgage rates down, and a return to 4% rates would likely require a severe recession and aggressive monetary stimulus [5] Group 3: Buying Strategies and Considerations - Potential homebuyers are advised to focus on their financial situation rather than trying to time the market, as U.S. home prices have only declined seven times in the past 75 years [6][7] - Options for buyers include adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), seller-paid buydowns, or shorter-term loans to secure lower rates, with the possibility of refinancing later if rates drop [8][9] - It is crucial for buyers to ensure they can afford monthly mortgage payments, which may include additional costs such as insurance and property taxes [10]