We got a very disappointing number here that this is going to get Wall Street's attention. 73,000 jobs created during the month of July. The forecast, as you said, was for 104, and we came down from 147 last month.Looking to see what the revisions are right now. The three month revisions add to payrolls by 35,000. So that has to be factored in.Private payrolls, 83,000. They were 74,000 last month. So it looks like government has subtracted from the overall level of jobs and that would be a rebound or a goin ...

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000 in July, with 83,000 jobs added by the private sector. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. However, attention focused on sharp downward revisions to previous data: May and June job gains were revised down to just 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, cutting a total of 258,000 jobs from prior estimates. ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.2%EXPECTATIONS: 4.2% ...

BREAKING:🇺🇸 US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CAME IN AT 4.2%EXPECTATIONS: 4.2% ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, indicating a pause in rate adjustments [1] - Two Fed governors dissented, favoring interest rate cuts, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors have dissented at a meeting [1] - The debate centers on whether tariff-related inflation should be treated as a one-off event or a persistent pressure [1] - The Fed is closely monitoring incoming data, including inflation numbers and jobs reports, to make future decisions regarding interest rates [5][6] - The Fed aims to manage inflation efficiently without causing unnecessary damage to the labor market [4] Economic Assessment - The US economy is considered to be in a solid position, with a low unemployment rate and a labor market at or near maximum employment [1] - Elevated uncertainty persists despite the economy's solid position [1] Future Outlook - The Fed has not made any decisions about potential interest rate cuts in September and will evaluate data to determine if the federal funds rate is appropriate [5] - The Fed acknowledges the risk of moving too soon (potentially not fixing inflation) or too late (potentially damaging the labor market) [4]

Economic Outlook - The economy is in a solid position with a low unemployment rate and a labor market at or near maximum employment [1] - Inflation has been running somewhat above the 2% longer-run objective [1][3] - There's also downside risk to the labor market [5] Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged [2] - The current stance of monetary policy is believed to be well-positioned to respond to potential economic developments [2] - The policy rate is characterized as modestly restrictive [3] - Financial conditions are accommodative [4] - The economy is not performing as though restrictive policy were holding it back inappropriately [4] Future Considerations - In coming months, a good amount of data will help inform the assessment of the balance of risks and the appropriate setting of the federal funds rate [5]

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is in no rush to adjust interest rates due to uncertainty about the economy, inflation, and the labor market [3] - The unemployment rate remains stable, similar to the previous summer [1][2][5] - The Fed aims to prevent any rise in inflation from becoming persistent, emphasizing the importance of keeping inflation expectations in check through patience [3] - The market anticipates rate cuts in the coming year, regardless of economic data, potentially influenced by a new Fed chair [13] - All Federal Open Market Committee members expect interest rates to be lower by the end of next year [17] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor demand growth is slowing, but the labor market hasn't loosened because the unemployment rate is unchanged [5] - Both labor supply and labor demand have slowed, with immigration policy being a contributing factor to the slowdown in labor supply [2][5] - Payroll employment growth has decelerated, which could become problematic if the trend continues [4] Tariff Impact & Trade Policy - The impact of tariffs on the economy is uncertain, particularly regarding inflation and business fixed investment [3][10] - A hypothetical 18%-20% tariff rate is compared to the economic tensions of the 1930s [6] - The current tariff shock may be more significant than in the 1930s due to a higher share of imports in GDP [8] - Most economists believe that tariffs will eventually be passed through to consumers, with every 1% increase in tariffs as a percent of imports adding about 01% to the price level [11][12] - An increase from 25% to 17%-18% in tariffs on imports could raise the level of prices by about 05% [12]

Economic Activity & GDP - GDP and Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP) numbers aligned with expectations [1] - Economic activity data, including GDP and PDFP, slowed to slightly above 1%, specifically 1.2% for GDP in the first half of the year, compared to 25% the previous year, indicating a slowdown [2] Labor Market - Labor market remains balanced across various statistics, including quits, job openings, and the unemployment rate, similar to levels from a year prior [3] - Job creation is slowing, but so is the supply of workers, maintaining a labor market balance, though this balance is due to declines in both supply and demand, suggesting downside risk [4] - The primary focus is on inflation and maximum employment, with the labor market appearing solid [5] - Downside risks to the labor market are apparent [5] - Equilibrium job growth should be assessed by monitoring the unemployment rate, as both demand and supply for workers are decreasing in tandem [6] Monetary Policy & Inflation - Weakness in interest-sensitive sectors like residential investment and commercial structures raises questions about whether monetary policy is too restrictive [1] - Inflation remains above target, even when excluding tariff effects, justifying the current monetary policy stance [5]

Economic Performance - Texas experienced higher GDP growth compared to most states post-pandemic [1] - Texas also had a lower unemployment rate than most states since the pandemic [1] Financial Distress - Texas is identified as the state with the most people facing financial distress [1]

Summary of Employment Report Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US labor market** and employment trends in **North America** as of July 2025 Key Points and Arguments 1. **Payroll Growth Forecast**: - Payrolls are expected to rise by **100,000** in July, with private payrolls contributing the same amount while government payrolls are projected to remain unchanged [1][6][8] 2. **Unemployment Rate**: - The U3 unemployment rate is forecasted to increase slightly to **4.2%**, remaining unchanged from a year earlier despite slower payroll growth [1][22][25] 3. **Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)**: - The LFPR is expected to hold steady at **62.3%**, but there are concerns that it may exert downward pressure on the unemployment rate due to declining participation, particularly among foreign-born individuals [1][23][29] 4. **Average Hourly Earnings**: - Average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise by **0.3% month-over-month**, with a year-over-year increase of **3.8%** [1][21][18] 5. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - The slowdown in private payrolls is notable, averaging **155,000** per month in 2023, **130,000** in 2024, and **107,000** in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by the services sector [7][8] - Manufacturing payrolls showed a slowdown in Q2 but did not experience a sudden stop in activity, while construction payrolls remained soft [7][8] 6. **Government Employment Trends**: - Federal government hiring is expected to slow, with a projected decline of **20,000** jobs in July, while state and local government payrolls are expected to see gains [8][9] 7. **Job Market Dynamics**: - New jobless claims are stable compared to the previous year, indicating limited layoffs, while job openings remain high, suggesting strong labor demand [9][14] 8. **Breakeven Payroll Pace**: - The breakeven pace for payrolls has decreased from **210,000** last year to **140,000** this year, with expectations that it could slow to **70,000** by year-end if deportations increase [24][27] Additional Important Insights - **Risks and Uncertainties**: - Upside risks include a higher job openings rate potentially leading to faster hiring, while downside risks stem from the ongoing slowdown in private payrolls and potential seasonal adjustments affecting payroll data [38][39] - **Future Federal Reserve Actions**: - The report suggests that slower payroll gains are unlikely to prompt immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as they remain focused on the overall labor market conditions [37] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the employment report preview, highlighting the current state and anticipated trends in the US labor market.