Investment Rating - The report provides a short-term investment focus on specific companies across various sectors, highlighting preferred and risk names based on tariff impacts [7][30]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the implications of the Trump administration's tariffs on nine major sectors, emphasizing the direct and indirect impacts on individual companies and their stock performance [6][30]. - The automotive sector is expected to face significant price increases due to tariffs, with an estimated 11.5% rise in US auto prices, translating to approximately $5,100 per vehicle [9][17]. - The report identifies key companies within each sector that are likely to be affected by tariffs, providing a detailed analysis of their potential performance [4][30]. Sector Summaries Autos and Auto Parts - Tariffs on automobiles could lead to a gross impact on operating profit ranging from 30% to over 100% for various automakers, with Toyota and Honda facing a manageable impact while Nissan and Mazda are at higher risk [4][9]. - Focus is placed on Toyota Motor for its resilience and ability to raise prices, while Bridgestone is noted for its high local production ratio [30][31]. Banks - The impact of tariffs on banks remains uncertain, but concerns over worst-case scenarios have eased, with a potential downside risk of slightly over 10% to sector earnings forecasts in a bearish scenario [4][33]. - Japan Post Bank is highlighted as a relatively stable option amidst tariff uncertainties [4][33]. Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - Major pharmaceutical companies like Takeda and Astellas are expected to be heavily impacted by tariffs, while companies with lower US sales ratios may benefit from tariff avoidance [4][30]. - The report emphasizes the potential for increased costs of goods sold (CoGS) affecting operating profits for medical device companies [4]. Technology - The technology sector's tariff impact is complex, with companies like NEC and Fujitsu expected to perform well due to limited exposure to tariffs [5][30]. - Sony Group is under close observation for potential price hikes on its products, particularly the PlayStation 5 [5][30]. Chemicals and Steel - In the chemicals sector, companies like Nippon Paint are expected to benefit from lower raw material prices, while the steel sector is anticipated to experience limited direct tariff impacts [5][30]. - Kobe Steel is noted for its resilience due to a significant earnings contribution from its machinery business [5][30]. Retail - The retail sector is advised to focus on drugstores and discount retailers, with companies like Asics and Fast Retailing facing risks from declining sales due to high tariff exposure [5][30]. - Seven & i Holdings is highlighted as particularly vulnerable due to its significant exposure to the US market [5][30].

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have all experienced double-digit percentage declines, with the Nasdaq entering a bear market with a loss exceeding 20% from its all-time high [2][3] - The recent declines have been characterized by their rapid velocity, with significant single-session point and percentage declines recorded [3] Tariff Policy Impact - President Trump's tariff policy has been a pivotal factor in the recent market downturn, with a 10% global tariff and higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with negative trade balances with the U.S. announced [4][5] - The potential for tariffs to increase domestic goods prices and reignite inflation is a concern, as input tariffs could make U.S. products less competitive [6] - Tariffs may also harm trade relations and create uncertainty in the market, as the president frequently changes which products or countries are affected [7] Investment Opportunities - The current market volatility presents an opportunity for long-term investors to acquire stocks at discounted prices [8] - Johnson & Johnson offers a 3.31% yield and has increased its annual payout for 63 consecutive years, indicating a strong dividend history [9] - Johnson & Johnson holds a AAA credit rating, reflecting confidence in its ability to service and repay debts [10][11] - The company's operating model is expected to remain stable despite tariff concerns, as demand for healthcare products is consistent [12] - Johnson & Johnson's focus on novel-drug development and its historically inexpensive stock valuation (14 times forward-year earnings) make it an attractive investment [14][15] Sirius XM Holdings - Sirius XM Holdings provides a 5.36% yield and operates as a legal monopoly in satellite radio, giving it pricing power over competitors [16][17] - The company generates 76% of its net sales from self-pay subscriptions, making it less vulnerable to economic downturns compared to traditional radio operators reliant on advertising [19] - Sirius XM's stock is valued at 6.6 times forward-year earnings, representing a 55% discount to its average forward P/E multiple from 2019 to 2024 [20]

根据 Counterpoint Research初步数据 ，2025年Q1全球PC出货量同比增长6.7%，达6,140万台。增长 主要受PC厂商赶在美国加征关税前加速出货，以及Windows 10终止支持背景下AI PC加速普及的推 动。但这一增长可能难以持续，预计库存水平将在未来数周趋于稳定。美国关税政策或将抑制2025 年的增长势头。 全球主要PC厂商2025年Q1出货量（单位：百万台） 数据来源：Counterpoint Research 2025年Q1全球PC市场出货量同比增长6.7%，主要受美国关税预期提前拉货及AI PC加速普及的推 动。 Apple和Lenovo出货量同比增幅超10%，表现优于其他品牌，进一步强化了头部品牌在市场中的主 导地位。 全球PC制造业产能仍高度集中于中国，短期内行业应对关税风险面临重大挑战。 美国关税政策导致PC行业不确定性增加，可能抑制AI PC的增长势头。 Apple和Lenovo本季度表现强劲，主要得益于新产品发布和市场动态。Apple出货量同比增长17%， 由搭载AI功能M4芯片的MacBook系列驱动；Lenovo 11%的增长则源于其AI PC产品线的扩展和 ...

Group 1 - The recent stock market pullback may be justified due to the potential impact of changes in U.S. tariff policy on corporate profits and economic growth [1] - Despite the pullback, many companies may have been unfairly affected, indicating potential investment opportunities [1]

North America Economic Research 09 April 2025 Liberation Day mulligan After the financial carnage of Liberation Day, today the president partially climbed Economic and Policy Research down from last week's tariff announcement. While the 10% across-the-board tariff will remain, the scheduled increase in country-specific tariffs has been paused for 90 days for those countries that haven't retaliated. Notably, though, for China, which has retaliated, tariffs will now go to 125%. In static terms, today's moves ...