Market Reaction to Tariffs - The market has largely been desensitized to tariff headlines, with investors not panicking and selling based on reports alone [2] - The tech and AI narrative driving the market higher is not the most tariff-exposed sector, contributing to the market's resilience [3] - The market's reaction is, to some extent, signaling to the president the level of tariffs the markets and economy can sustain [11] - The market's current tolerance encourages further tariff increases [12] Tariff Impact and Future Expectations - Tariffs are expected to show up in economic data and margins, potentially impacting the market [3] - The impact of already implemented tariffs is still to come, as suppliers and retailers make decisions about passing on costs [6] - Tariffs are generally increasing, with baseline tariffs potentially rising from 10% to 15%, and settling around 20% for many Asian countries [8] - Sectoral tariffs, particularly in pharma and semis, represent a large category of goods with an unknown impact [9] - Sophisticated institutional investors remain concerned, anticipating that tariff costs will eventually affect margins or prices [10] Trade Deals and Tariff Strategy - Trade deals are reducing tariffs relative to the initial threats, but still increasing tariffs compared to previous rates [8] - The current phase is a ramp-up in tariffs, with the ultimate outcome yet to be determined [13]

Macroeconomic Outlook - A weaker dollar is generally beneficial for manufacturing and S&P 500 revenues, with approximately 30% of S&P 500 revenues originating from abroad [2] - A 10% depreciation of the dollar could increase inflation by roughly 05 percentage points over the next 9 months, posing a challenge given existing inflation levels [3] - The M2 money supply is growing at its fastest rate since 2022, indicating substantial liquidity seeking assets and yield [4] - The debate centers on whether recent sentiment improvements are sufficient for continued S&P 500 growth, considering headwinds from tariffs and student loan payments restarting [5] Labor Market Dynamics - The consensus expects 100,000 new jobs next Friday, which is still steady job growth [7] - Private sector job growth has slowed down in recent months, raising concerns about the labor market's health [7] - Deportations running at an annualized rate of approximately 1 million people could reduce job growth [7] - The break-even level for long-run non-farm payrolls is estimated to be around 70,000, lower than the 200,000 in 2023 and 2024 [9] Inflation and Pricing Pressures - The market is actively debating inflation, with the expectation of a 27% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading next week [10] - There is an expectation of a meaningful increase in inflation over the next several months, particularly in imported goods like footwear, apparel, toys, and tools [11] - Companies are currently paying approximately $400 billion annually in tariffs, impacting either consumers through higher prices or companies through lower earnings [14] - Retailers, particularly those affected by tariffs, are expected to experience margin pressure and potentially lower sales [16]

With the fading probability of the actual rate of Trump tariffs ending up as high as feared, French business leaders are saying the levy with be manageable https://t.co/HLV6l51ZZq ...

Sectoromics has officially returned. We want to get over to Dom Chu to find out what he is focused on this morning. What you got.>> All right. How about the sectors and materials for our sector this month, Andrew. The sector ranks in just about the middle of the pack in terms of the 11 sectors for the 7 months into 2025.It's just up roughly about 8% or so. The miners are leading the charge so far for the sector. Pneumont shares are up more than 60% given that rise in gold prices.Freeport Macaran also in the ...

Volkswagen cut its financial outlook for the year, with the escalating cost of Trump’s tariffs weighing on earnings at the Audi and Porsche brands https://t.co/WU72zxttyp ...

Trade & Tariff Impact - Corporate America is currently bearing the burden of Trump's tariffs [1] Economic Outlook - The report questions the sustainability of the current situation [1]

If you remember, not so long ago, we rebuilt the old post office into the Trump Hotel and we sold it to Waldorf Histori and it was a great success and we had great luck with the building. We did a good job. We built it quickly and relatively inexpensively for about $200 million and that was a big hotel, big big project.But, uh, we looked around and Tim Scott's here someplace. Tim, come on up. I just uh you saw what we saw and the big thing is to get it done. They have to get it done. They have to get it fin ...

Market Trends & Company Performance - Alphabet's Q2 earnings show strong demand for AI products, with 2025 capital expenditures forecasted at $85 billion, $10 billion more than previously expected [2][6][25] - Tesla faces a tough road ahead, with shares sinking after reporting one of its worst quarters in a decade, impacted by the expiration of EV incentives in the US [3][11] - Chipotle's revenue fell short in Q2, leading to a cut in annual same-store sales forecast for the second time this year, with shares down nearly 13% [31][32] - United Health is cooperating with a Justice Department investigation into its Medicare practices, with shares down about 3% [39][40] - American Airlines and Southwest Airlines shares are lower in pre-market trading after Q2 earnings reports disappointed investors, with Southwest missing estimates and American scaling back its 2025 forecast [41] - Dow is slashing its dividend amid a broader industry downturn, issuing a weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue outlook [42] Tariffs & Trade - President Trump indicates reciprocal tariffs will not go below 15% and could go as high as 50% for some countries, ahead of the August 1st deadline [4][43] - Despite initial market reactions to tariff announcements, the market seems less worried now, but uncertainties remain [46][47] Investment Opportunities & Strategies - Pivotal Research raised its price target for Alphabet to $245 a share, noting that risks from AI competition and regulatory hurdles are already priced in [23] - Gradient Investments highlights Amazon as a compelling pick, citing its leadership in cloud computing and retail, efficient supply chains, and diversified revenue streams [50][51][52] - Gradient Investments also recommends Quantis Services as a play on infrastructure buildout, benefiting from both general infrastructure needs and the energy demands of AI [57][58]

China and Europe face a common threat from President Trump’s tariffs. That isn’t enough to bring the two economies closer. https://t.co/Z8kP2T5DvL ...

The European Central Bank paused its most aggressive easing campaign since the global financial crisis as it awaits clarity on President Trump’s tariffs https://t.co/BDQxc65n9o ...