Fiscal Policy Proposals - Extend 2017 tax cuts [1] - End federal tax on tips/overtime [1] - Add a $1K (one thousand) newborn savings bonus [1] - Increase defense spending by $150B (one hundred fifty billion) [1] - Increase immigration enforcement spending by $70B (seventy billion) to $350B (three hundred fifty billion) [1] Social Welfare & Citizenship - Cut Medicaid/SNAP, potentially causing 10M+ (ten million plus) people to lose coverage [1] - End birthright citizenship [1] Deficit Impact - Increase the deficit by $2.4T+ (two point four trillion plus) [1]

President Trump's domestic agenda is now facing a new and major setback. This is on the budget and some of the things that Trump and the MAGA crowd want to ram through the budget, which is despite everything going on obviously in the world, still Donald Trump and the Republican party's greatest priority, getting this done somehow. And yet, as you're going to see in this breaking news, Republican senators are dealing with the setback in real time today.Well, I mean, as you know, it's pretty frustrating, righ ...

The Congressional Budget Office, known in your hood as the CBO, estimated that the GOP's tax bill will increase the deficit by $2.4% trillion over the next 10 years. University of Pennsylvania's Wharton budget model estimates that estimates that it could increase by as much as $4.3% trillion with the Senate and House hoping to have a finished version of the tax bill ready by July 4th. This could be the next big piece of economic data.I want to bring in Brett Ryan, Deutschbank's senior US economist. And stil ...

[Music] Now for today's power player segment. Time is running out for senators to reach a deal on President Trump's tax plan. The president wants the big beautiful bill on his desk before July 4th.As the deadline closes in, it's still not clear to markets what the bill's economic impact will be. The White House Council of Economic Adviserss estimates growth from the new tax plan could slash up to $2.3% trillion from the deficit. But the Congressional Budget Office found the mega bill would add $2.4% trillio ...

Market Outlook - CNBC's Fed survey participants show growing optimism about the outlook for markets, anticipating a bounce back in the economy and stocks in 2026 [1] - The survey projects the S&P 500 to reach 6133 by year-end, a 15% increase, and 6625 in 2026, nearly a 10% increase from yesterday's close [2] - Equity markets are near all-time highs, anticipating certainty on tariffs, extension of the 2017 tax cuts, deregulation, AI productivity, and Fed easing, potentially leading to economic reacceleration in the second half into 2026 [2][3] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The survey indicates no expectation for a rate cut next month, with the funds rate remaining above the long run neutral rate into 2026 [4][5] - The survey builds in two rate cuts for this year and one for next year [4][5] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - 82% of respondents believe the tax bill will increase the deficit [3] - Opinions are divided on the tax bill's impact on growth, with 29% more optimistic, 29% less optimistic, and 43% believing it doesn't matter [3][4] Inflation and Tariffs - A 43% to 32% margin believes tariffs will be one-time price increases rather than creating broader inflation [6] - 61% of respondents anticipate tariff inflation is yet to come in the months ahead [6]

Market Risks and Uncertainty - Markets are driven by allocation parameters, not long-term economic factors, and panic can occur [6][7] - The US deficit is snowballing, with interest rates adding to the budget annually [7] - The perception of America's riskiness has increased, leading to a move into gold by central banks and others [17] - There's a risk of the dollar losing its status as a reserve currency, evidenced by gold accumulation in reserves [13][14] Economic Policies and Their Impact - Current policies may shift business from high added value to low added value, depressing GDP [25] - The approach to tariffs is irrational, effectively taxing the poor, and tax breaks don't compensate those who don't pay taxes [29] - Constraining the supply of cheap labor, crucial for many American businesses, poses dangers [32][33] Hedge Funds and Risk Management - Systemic risk with hedge funds is less concerning than with banks because hedge funds have their own money at stake [19] - Opacity in private markets is only harmful if there's a potential bailout; otherwise, it's a normal market function [21][22]

Budget Bill & Market Focus - The Senate's version of the budget bill differs significantly from the House version, particularly regarding salt deductions, which are proposed to return to $10,000 from $40,000 [2] - The bill is perceived as market-driven, aiming to strengthen the economy, with tax cuts playing a significant role [4][6][14] - The bill is not primarily focused on cost reduction and is expected to increase the national debt [5][6] Medicaid & Work Requirements - The Senate's version avoids drastic cuts to Medicaid expansion, maintaining the federal government's share at 90% instead of reducing it to 50%, which would have affected approximately 20 million people [3][4] - Implementing work requirements for Medicaid recipients is complex and could lead to bureaucratic challenges and potential legal battles [8][9][10][12] - States may need to invest significant funds to implement and defend work requirement systems in court [12] Economic Outlook & Tax Cuts - Tax cuts are expected to support the economy, potentially leading to a rate cut later in the fall [14][15] - Weak job numbers are anticipated in September, October, and November due to federal employees leaving, which could impact how tax cuts are perceived [15][16] - Reinvesting business tax cuts back into the economy is crucial for achieving higher growth and managing the deficit [17] Medicaid System Challenges - Medicaid is overly complex, with approximately 1,500 ten-digit codes, leading to waste, fraud, abuse, and misbilling [22][23][24] - Simplifying Medicaid at the federal level is essential to address these issues, but Washington often overlooks the complexities at the grassroots level [25][27] - Medicaid and Medicare are major drivers of increasing government spending, while discretionary spending receives more attention [30][31] Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - A fiscal crisis is anticipated in approximately eight years, with Social Security and Medicare facing bankruptcy and debt reaching $42 trillion [33][34] - Interest rate payments are projected to increase from $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion annually in about nine years [34] - Addressing these long-term fiscal challenges requires political courage, but there is a reluctance to tackle issues like Medicaid and Medicare [33]

One way or another, you have to bring debt the deficit not only in the United States but other places but I'm focusing on the United States down to from a supply demand point of view down to about 3%. So that's the 3% of GDP that that's an amount that the market I think can digest. Um it will um affect also the supply demand.There are when I say three parts I think when we think of budgets we think of taxes and spending um but also interest has a huge effect. um a 1% change in the interest rate, 100 basis p ...

Inflation & Economic Policy - The administration believes its policies are driving down inflation by boosting the economy's supply side, enabling firms to produce more efficiently [1][2] - Concerns exist that companies may hesitate to pass on tariff-related costs due to fears of reduced consumer demand, potentially impacting economic growth and bottom lines [3] - The theory of tax incentives suggests the more inflexible party bears the tariff burden, with American consumers potentially changing consumption patterns [4][5] Trade & Tariffs - Firms can adjust supply chains, sourcing from countries with favorable trade deals, to avoid tariffs [6][7] - Tariffs aim to encourage countries to lower barriers to US products, creating more balanced trade and offering alternative markets [21] - Reciprocal tariffs remain a negotiating tool, potentially implemented if trade negotiations don't progress [19][22] - The president intends to use tariffs to incentivize countries to advance negotiations and make concessions, fostering a fair trade environment [24] Fiscal Policy & Deficit - The administration asserts it takes the deficit seriously and has a plan to reduce it through tax relief, deregulation, energy abundance, and trade renegotiation, aiming for 3% GDP growth [12][13] - Increased GDP growth, tariff revenues, and supply-side expansion are expected to contribute to deficit reduction [13] - Incentives like full expensing of equipment, R&D, and new factories are designed to stimulate investment in America, expanding productive capacity and keeping inflation low [8][9][10] - The administration anticipates deficit reduction through better economic growth, tariff revenue, reduced interest expenses, and cuts to waste, fraud, and abuse [16] - The administration projects 3 to 4 percentage points of GDP worth of deficit reduction, not fully reflected in the CBO score [15]

Senate Republicans are expected to propose revisions to key tax and healthc care policies in the President Trump backed budget bill this week as lawmakers rush to get the bill done by July 4th. Congress members and key White House officials are expected to meet as early as Thursday. Joining us now on this, we've got Kevin Brady.He is former chair of the House Ways and Means Committee and architect of President Trump's original tax cuts. It's great to have you on this morning, Congressman. Thank you so much ...