Market Trends & AI Trade - Equity markets have risen significantly, approximately 30% to 40%, since liberation day [2] - The market was heavily influenced by the AI trade, which is now undergoing a period of digestion [1][2] - Concerns exist regarding the expectation of a 100% Federal Reserve rate cut in December, although current expectations are at two-thirds [3] - Earnings have significantly surpassed typical levels, with strong demand driving the AI trade [8] - The AI transformation is expected to continue, benefiting larger companies with strong cash flow [11] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - Profit-taking is occurring after a substantial market run, particularly in higher beta and higher volatility stocks [2] - Potential pullback in risk appetite may occur if market expectations for continued gains are not met [3] - M&A activity is up over 40% year-over-year, and IPOs are entering the market, potentially boosting market sentiment [5] - Infrastructure buildout, especially in energy (up 5% to 6%) and utilities (up about 20%), presents an investment opportunity [11] - Private market infrastructure and smaller, non-public companies are favored investment areas [12] Economic Factors & Fiscal Policy - Labor market data, specifically challenger numbers, are concerning [4] - Fiscal policy, with a "big beautiful bill" starting to impact the economy, is a key factor [5] - The Federal Reserve's policy will play a significant role in driving market direction [5]

US states and local governments have sold a record amount of debt for the second year in a row, borrowing over $500 billion in the municipal market in 2025, in part as they tackle lingering infrastructure needs https://t.co/vimnrdIeFM ...

Talk to us about what you are buying right now. What looks attractive to you. >> Well, uh, on my shopping list, one of them has been long bonds.It was the unloved to the loved, right. Yields I still believe will go lower. So, that's a big breakout area.Secondly, in terms of the infrastructure, uh we we actually got into an ETF called Aaran AMLP which does pipeline and then I read Phillips and Kinder Morgan are looking at expanding pipelines which is necessary that type of infrastructure for energy movement ...

Core Insights - U.S. consumers are showing signs of financial strain, particularly lower-income households reducing discretionary spending, as indicated by recent earnings reports from major consumer-facing companies like McDonald's [1][2] Consumer Behavior - Lower-income households are cutting back on discretionary spending, with quick-service restaurant traffic from this group falling by nearly double digits in Q3, a trend persisting for two consecutive years [2] Economic Outlook - The economy is facing challenges from high costs and eroding savings, likely due to high interest rates and increased tariffs, but sectors with durable earnings power and exposure to wealthier consumers or emerging growth concepts like AI and infrastructure may benefit [3] Sector Performance - For 389 S&P 500 members that reported Q3 results, total earnings increased by 14.6% year-over-year, with revenues up by 8.3%. Notably, 83.5% of these companies exceeded EPS estimates, and 75.6% surpassed revenue estimates [5] - Q3 earnings are expected to show growth for 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with significant growth in Aerospace (+76.5%), Technology (+24.7%), Finance (+24.4%), and Retail (+15.3%) [6] Sector-Specific Insights - **Aerospace**: The sector has achieved 76.5% earnings growth on 14.6% higher revenues, with projected earnings growth of 65.1%, 4.3%, and 13.3% for Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026, respectively [7] - **Technology**: This sector has recorded 24.7% earnings growth with 14.4% higher revenues, with expected growth of 10.9%, 12.4%, and 17.8% in the upcoming quarters [8] - **Financials**: The Financials sector reported 24.4% earnings growth on 8.5% higher revenues, with anticipated growth of 15.8%, 15.7%, and 8.6% in the next three quarters [9] - **Retail**: The Retail sector has seen 15.3% earnings growth with 6.2% higher revenues, with expected growth of 3.6%, 7.8%, and 9.0% in the upcoming quarters [10]

Q3 2025 Financial Performance - Revenues reached $11.1 billion, a 5% increase compared to Q3 2024[13] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 10% to $2.7 billion[13] - Adjusted EBITDA Margin improved by 100bps to 24.3%[13] - Diluted EPS grew by 12% to $2.21[13] Segment Performance - Americas Materials Solutions revenues increased by 6% to $5.637 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA up 5% to $1.555 billion[19] - Americas Building Solutions revenues increased by 2% to $1.797 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA up 22% to $432 million[22] - International Solutions revenues increased by 5% to $3.635 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA up 15% to $708 million[25] Capital Allocation - Approximately $3.5 billion was invested in 27 acquisitions year-to-date[11, 33] - $1.1 billion was invested in Growth Capex year-to-date[33] - $0.7 billion was returned to shareholders through dividends year-to-date[33, 66] - $1.2 billion was returned to shareholders through share repurchases[33] 2025 Outlook - Adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint raised to $7.6 billion - $7.7 billion[11, 57] - Net Income is projected to be $3.8 billion - $3.9 billion[57] - Diluted EPS is expected to be $5.49 - $5.72[57]

Group 1 - The article promotes iREIT on Alpha as a platform providing in-depth research on various income alternatives including REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, and ETFs, highlighting its positive testimonials [1] - Leo Nelissen is identified as an analyst focusing on economic developments related to supply chains, infrastructure, and commodities, contributing to iREIT®+HOYA Capital with an emphasis on dividend growth opportunities [2] Group 2 - The article includes a disclosure stating that the author has no stock or derivative positions in the mentioned companies and does not plan to initiate any positions in the next 72 hours, emphasizing the independence of the analysis [3] - Seeking Alpha's disclosure notes that past performance does not guarantee future results and clarifies that no investment recommendations are being made, indicating the nature of the analysis as independent and not reflecting the views of Seeking Alpha as a whole [4]

AI Investment and Growth - AI is considered a transformational technology, with the focus shifting to how over-extrapolated it already is and staying ahead of the next waves of investment [2] - The Magnificent 7 earnings showed over 20% earnings growth, with cloud revenue growing 25% year-over-year [3] - Dispersion within the early winners of the AI story is expected to continue [4] Infrastructure and Power Constraints - The physical infrastructure needed for AI, particularly electricity power, is a key concern [4] - China's less constrained approach to energy and a more modern grid system give it a potential advantage in AI adoption [4] - Investment interest is growing in solutions for upgrading the grid, especially in private markets and infrastructure funds, including contracted power companies [4][12] Energy and Policy Considerations - China is taking an "all of the above" approach to energy, including coal, nuclear, renewables (especially solar and batteries), and fossil fuels [7][8] - Natural gas has an important role to play in the US before full renewable solutions are reliable and stable [9] - Upgrading the US power grid, which has not been significantly upgraded in decades, is crucial [4][9] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on structural stories like AI in the US and certain Asia markets, rather than betting on a cyclical economic recovery [11] - Active focus is needed in tech and growth funds due to more dispersion in large companies [11] - Opportunities exist in private markets, specifically infrastructure funds with regulated and contracted power companies [12]

There has been a surge of activity in China’s infrastructure-building scheme, especially in areas such as green energy. Xi JInping hopes this money will encourage countries to back it in multinational forums https://t.co/UJlI45ykTQ ...

🔥 INSIGHT: Bitcoin is infrastructure, not digital gold. https://t.co/iGOCuisd91 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the lack of a bubble in the current market despite acknowledging unfavorable risk/reward dynamics [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - Leo Nelissen is an analyst focused on major economic developments related to supply chains, infrastructure, and commodities [1] - He is a contributing author for iREIT®+HOYA Capital, aiming to provide insightful analysis and actionable investment ideas [1] - The analysis particularly emphasizes dividend growth opportunities [1]