Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 ERIC TRUMP SAYS BITCOIN AND CRYPTO IS "GROWING FASTER THAN THE INTERNET. ”EVERYONE WANTS $BTC 🔥 https://t.co/WSA8avyx3h ...

🗣️🔥ERIC TRUMP: "Crypto is growing faster than the internet was growing." https://t.co/QmPQr4JS9f ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 ERIC TRUMP SAYS CRYPTO IS GROWING FASTER THAN THE INTERNET EVER DID. https://t.co/92ZKNBON3W ...

🇺🇸 ERIC TRUMP: "Crypto is growing faster than the internet.""Every single country is sprinting at it." https://t.co/uJzsSx12NK ...

RT Token Terminal 📊 (@tokenterminal)"A platform upon which the next era of the internet is being built."The applications of the next era: https://t.co/3xcA2Bgh2b ...

Fundamentals vs. NarrativesIn a highly connected system, the thing that spreads the fastest winssee: COVID, fake news, viral memesThe Internet is a highly connected system — the financial system is notThe latter has circuit breakers, markets/banks close outside business hours, and inefficiency is a featureBut crypto connects the financial system with the internet, and so makes the financial system highly connected as wellBut in a highly connected system, speed of spread dominates, so fundamentals start matt ...

Connectivity & Market Dynamics - Connectivity is crucial for understanding future markets and crypto, with crypto connecting the internet to money, increasing global money movement connectivity [1][2][3] - Increased connectivity amplifies both opportunities and risks, accelerating typical market cycles [2] - As more individuals engage with crypto, enhancing monetary connectivity, opportunities and risks escalate, leading to an exponential acceleration of typical market cycles [2] Capital Flows & Market Behavior - In highly connected systems, the fastest-moving element becomes dominant; in crypto, this element is capital flows [2] - Flows start dominating fundamentals as reflexivity kicks in [2] - Hyper-volatile games like memecoins and perps have started dominating everything because they gamify flows [2] Future Implications - The world will become more extreme, with more winner-take-all network effects and more black swans [2]

it is insane how the internet works todayluckily Mateo is probably the best educator on the topicif there's one thing you watch today, make it this: https://t.co/b2veSteQRF ...

the reason narrative dominates fundamentals is not that people are dumber or suddenly greedierit's physicshumans think in storiesnarratives are easier to understand, and fundamentals require time to analyseif narratives are easier to understand, then they spread fasterif they spread faster, then they infect more peopleif the internet connects more people than ever before, then the rate of infection increases exponentiallyand if enough people are infected, it ends up shaping realityand if crypto increases th ...