Market Reaction & Risk Assessment - Initial market reaction to the US attack on Iran is expected to be a knee-jerk sell-off of risk assets and a buying of haven assets, followed by a quick rethink [2] - The severity of the market reaction depends on whether the conflict remains regional or broadens to affect US assets or extends beyond the Middle East [3] - A contrarian view suggests that if the nuclear threat of Iran is significantly hampered, it could remove a major risk to Middle East stability and be a net positive for stocks [6] - Monitoring trade flows in the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Horn of Africa is crucial; major disruptions would trigger alarms, first in commodities, then FX, and finally equities [11][12] Oil Market - Oil prices initially increased by approximately 4%, later paring back gains but still up almost 3% [3][4] - Brent crude's movement above $80 a barrel, a level not seen since early January, is a key number to watch [4] - Whether oil prices remain at or exceed $80 will be determined by events in the Strait of Hormuz [5] Treasury Market - The Treasury market's reaction is complex, influenced by both the Middle East situation and the US fiscal situation [8] - Concerns about higher energy prices potentially leading to higher inflation could send bonds in the opposite direction [8] - Market activity in long-dated bonds is currently muted, with low volume and little price change, but this could change soon [9] Geopolitical Factors - Iran's response, and its severity, is a key factor to watch [11] - The Tel Aviv 35 index closed at a record high for six consecutive days, indicating a positive market sentiment in Israel [7]

Market Trends & Analysis - The dollar index has been in a bear market since peaking on January 1st at 110 and February 3rd at 10975, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows [2] - Technically, the dollar index needs to surpass 9936 to establish a neutral trend, with potential resistance around 100 [2] - Political uncertainty, tariff headlines, and speculation of US authorities favoring a weaker currency are fueling a rotation away from the dollar [3] Currency Composition & Reserve Rotation - The dollar's composition in foreign exchange reserves has decreased from approximately 71% in 2001 to about 57% in 2025 [4][5] - Central banks are rotating out of the dollar due to concerns about the unsustainable US fiscal trajectory, despite low default risk [5] - Central banks are diversifying their reserves by adding gold and other asset classes [6] Impact Factors & Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's uncertainty regarding spending measures and geopolitical factors necessitates holding higher rates for longer [7] - Uncertainty surrounding the "big beautiful bill," Middle East conflict, and tariffs are holding back the dollar's rally [7] - Clarity on these issues is needed for the dollar index to potentially resume its rally [7]

Market Volatility & Geopolitical Landscape - The market is experiencing volatility due to recent geopolitical developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, but not as significantly as the tariff impacts earlier in the year [2] - Investors and advisors are becoming more accustomed to increased volatility [3] - Increased interest in fixed income ETFs, especially short-term ones, is observed as investors seek income with lower risk [3] - Broadly diversified ETFs, like the Vanguard 500 ETF, are attracting inflows, indicating investors are using sell-offs as buying opportunities [3][4] Tech Investment & Safe Haven Status - Tech is heavily weighted in broadly diversified large-cap ETFs, suggesting many investors include tech and AI as part of a broader portfolio [5] - Technology was considered a safe haven during the COVID selloff in 2020 [6] - Investors are now showing interest in more traditional defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples [7] - Large-cap tech is still seen as a relative safe haven, but investors also seek diversification with traditional defensive sectors [7] AI Revolution & Tech Valuation - Focusing solely on valuation can lead to missing transformational tech stocks [9] - The market is believed to be underestimating the growth potential of the AI revolution in tech [9] - Geopolitical events are viewed as opportunities to acquire tech stocks at lower prices [9]

get to Dom Chu. He's looking at some of the uh sectors and stocks on the move this morning. Hey, Dom.All right. So, Joe, Becky, in the wake of the uh Israeli air strikes on Iran, we wanted to give you a check on some of the safe haven trades that may react a little bit more in times of geopolitical risk and tension. Uh interestingly enough, uh visav the oil conversation you guys just had, that is where the real epicenter is.We are not seeing a lot of market activity. There is some activity in those safe hav ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts at JP Morgan predict gold prices will reach $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026, which is expected to positively impact gold mining stocks, prompting Jefferies to raise price targets for these stocks ahead of earnings reports [1][2]. Company Highlights - RUA GOLD Inc. reported promising drill results from its Auld Creek project in the Reefton Goldfield, with notable intercepts including 9.0 meters at 5.9 g/t gold equivalent and 1.25 meters at 48.3 g/t gold equivalent, indicating that gold-antimony mineralization intensifies with depth [3][5]. - The Auld Creek project is part of RUA's broader exploration strategy in the Reefton district, where the company holds 95% control, utilizing advanced geological modeling and AI-driven targeting [4][5]. - RUA's early drill campaigns have yielded significant results, including 12 meters at 12.2 g/t gold equivalent, suggesting substantial growth potential beyond the current inferred resource of 700,000 tonnes grading 3.1 g/t gold and 1.1% antimony [5][6]. - The company is expanding its drilling efforts to other prospects like Murray Creek and Gallant, with Gallant showing potential extensions of high-grade veins [7][8]. - RUA is also advancing its Glamorgan Project on the North Island, where rock samples have returned assays as high as 43 g/t gold, indicating another high-impact opportunity [9]. Industry Trends - Demand for gold is rising, with ETFs like the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) showing year-to-date performances of +44.80% and +39.58% respectively [2]. - Antimony is gaining attention as a strategic mineral, with New Zealand adding it to its Critical Minerals List and prices rising above $50,000 per tonne [10]. - Other companies in the sector, such as Contango Ore Inc. and Prime Mining Corp., are also reporting positive developments, including cash distributions and high-grade intercepts, further indicating a robust environment for gold mining [11][14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged above $3,200 per ounce, prompting major banks to revise their forecasts, with UBS predicting $3,500 and Deutsche Bank targeting $3,700, as investors seek safe havens amid economic uncertainty [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices has led to increased interest in gold mining stocks, alongside physical bullion and gold ETFs, as investors look for amplified exposure to rising gold prices [1] - Junior exploration companies are gaining attention due to promising drill results, indicating significant upside potential in the gold mining sector [2] Group 2: Lake Victoria Gold Developments - Lake Victoria Gold has secured four new Mining Licenses for its Tembo Project in Tanzania, marking a significant advancement in its development strategy [3][5] - The approval of Mining Licenses provides long-term operational visibility, valid for an initial 10-year term with an option for renewal [5] - The Tembo Project has attracted over $28 million in exploration investment, with extensive drilling completed, establishing a strong technical foundation [4] Group 3: Exploration and Resource Potential - Lake Victoria Gold has identified three high-priority targets within the Tembo Project area, showing promising gold grades and potential for resource growth [6] - Notable drilling results at the Ngula 1 target include intercepts of 3.13 grams per tonne (g/t) over 25.89 meters and 22.18 g/t over 15 meters, indicating a potentially significant gold system [7] - At the Nyakagwe Village target, high-grade gold zones have been confirmed, with standout results of 78.1 g/t over one meter and 27.88 g/t over 3.96 meters [8] - Drilling at Nyakagwe East revealed a 300-meter mineralized zone with notable results such as 19.1 g/t over three meters, demonstrating consistency in high-grade intercepts [9] Group 4: Future Development Plans - With Mining Licenses secured, Lake Victoria Gold is evaluating development pathways, including early-stage open-pit mining and potential toll milling options for gold production [10] - The company is also considering a standalone processing plant if future volumes justify in-house processing [11] - A follow-up drill program is planned to convert historical high-grade intercepts into formal resource estimates, with 38 new exploration targets identified across the property [12] Group 5: Strategic Partnerships - Lake Victoria Gold maintains options for partnerships, having previously sold non-core licenses to Barrick Gold, which supports the advancement of the Tembo Project while providing potential upside from discoveries near the Bulyanhulu Mine [13] Group 6: Broader Industry Context - Other companies in the gold sector, such as Integra Resource Corp. and GoldMining Inc., are also advancing their projects, with significant exploration programs and permitting processes underway, reflecting a robust interest in gold mining opportunities [15][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks are showing resilience amidst market volatility, with UBS raising price targets for Barrick Gold and Newmont, indicating a positive outlook for the gold industry [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major market indices are slightly up as investors react to economic news regarding U.S. and China tariffs [1] - Gold stocks are performing well, with Barrick Gold up 5.6%, Newmont up 6.6%, and Coeur Mining up 7.6% [2]. Group 2: UBS Analysis - UBS has raised Barrick's price target to $25 per share and upgraded Newmont to a buy rating with a new price target of $60, reflecting a 20% increase [3][4]. - UBS predicts a "stronger for longer gold price environment," forecasting gold prices to rise to $3,500 per ounce by 2026 [5][6]. Group 3: Company Valuations - Newmont is valued at a forward P/E ratio of 8.4, indicating strong profit growth expectations, while Barrick has a forward P/E of 11.6 [8]. - Coeur Mining has the highest trailing P/E at 36.6, with a forward P/E of 13.7, but is not generating positive free cash flow [9]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Barrick is considered a strong investment option due to its reasonable valuation, lower leverage with $1.2 billion more debt than cash, and substantial free cash flow of $1.3 billion [10][11]. - Barrick also offers a modest dividend yield of 2.3%, making it an attractive choice for investors looking to capitalize on the positive outlook for gold stocks [12].