Market Overview - Stocks are expected to move higher in early trading, continuing the upward trend seen in recent sessions, with S&P 500 futures up by 0.1 percent [1] - Major averages have reached new record highs despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown [1] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - Traders appear to be unconcerned about the economic impact of the shutdown, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned it could negatively affect U.S. economic growth [2] - Bessent highlighted that the shutdown could lead to a decrease in GDP and impact working Americans [2] - The delay in the release of key U.S. economic data, including the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, is a significant concern for the markets [2][3] Market Sentiment and Predictions - There is an expectation that the government shutdown may last until mid-October, which could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed interest rate decisions [3] - The ISM's services PMI is anticipated to slightly decline to 51.7 in September from 52.0 in August, but a reading above 50 still indicates growth [4] Stock Performance - Major averages closed higher for the fifth consecutive session, with the Nasdaq up by 88.89 points (0.4 percent), the Dow rising by 78.62 points (0.2 percent), and the S&P 500 increasing by 4.15 points (0.1 percent) [5] - Mixed performance was observed in overseas trading, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index rising by 1.9 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index falling by 0.5 percent [5] European Market Trends - Major European markets showed mixed results, with the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index up by 0.5 percent, while the French CAC 40 Index and the German DAX Index fell by 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively [6] Commodity Prices - Crude oil futures increased by $0.25 to $60.73 per barrel after a previous decline [6] - Gold futures rose by $17.90 to $3,886 per ounce following a significant drop [6] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar is trading at 147.35 yen, up from 147.23 yen, and valued at $1.1730 against the euro, compared to $1.1714 previously [7]

Volatility for yen interest rates has climbed above that of euro ones for the first time in seven years https://t.co/ifrQ63MwmO ...

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda kept his policy options open by reiterating the bank’s long-held stance on interest rates, avoiding sending any clear signals about the prospects for a rate hike when the board meets later this month https://t.co/XfNDgQnfOF ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: FedWatch shows a 99% probability of rates being cut to 375–400 bps at the October 29, 2025 meeting. https://t.co/VxnB5Ep3bZ ...

Core Insights - The U.S. is not expected to become China's main supplier of soybeans, as China is currently seeking to fill its needs with U.S. soybeans until Brazil's next harvest [1] - The National Soybean Index reached its lowest monthly close at the end of September since August 2020, indicating ample supplies relative to demand [2] - The government shutdown has led to a lack of reporting from the USDA, creating uncertainty in the market and allowing China to potentially buy soybeans under the radar, similar to actions taken in 2018 [5][7] Market Trends - The agricultural markets are experiencing a quiet period, with livestock futures showing significant losses [4] - Basis is weak for both corn and soybeans due to increased supplies during harvest time, with producers selling soybeans while holding corn [8][12] - The cash cattle market is seeing pressure, with cutout values dropping significantly, indicating a potential shift in investor interest towards markets with a more bullish supply and demand outlook [16][18] External Factors - Gold prices are reaching record highs, driven by concerns over inflation and a growing lack of confidence in the U.S. economy, as central banks continue to buy gold as a safe haven [13][14] - The ongoing government shutdown is contributing to market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and trading behavior [15]

Well, joining me now is Wharton School Professor of Finance and Wisdom Tree Chief Economist Jeremy Seagull. Jeremy, it's great to have you on the show. Welcome.>> Good to see you, Morgan. >> So, where do we go from here with stocks. >> Well, as I've been saying a long for a long time, make the trend your friend.It's the trend is on. Um, you know, but Mike Santo is right. It's been a it's been a long time since we've had any reaction.But at this point, I don't see anything immediately that is uh derailing uh ...

Core Viewpoint - Interest rates have already decreased by 25 basis points and may continue to fall, prompting investors to consider alternative income sources such as equity income ETFs to enhance fixed income performance [1][4] Group 1: Interest Rate Environment - The Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation could lead to further interest rate cuts, impacting fixed income allocations in investor portfolios [1] - A potential economic downturn could result in lower yields for traditional bonds, making equity income ETFs more attractive for investors, especially those nearing retirement [1] Group 2: Active Equity Income ETFs - The Goldman Sachs Nasdaq-100 Premium Income ETF (GPIQ) and the Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Premium Income ETF (GPIX) both charge a fee of 29 basis points and provide yield options outside the fixed income category [2] - GPIX focuses on the S&P 500 while GPIQ targets the Nasdaq 100, with both funds employing call options on 25% to 75% of their holdings to generate equity income [2] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Year-to-date returns for GPIX and GPIQ are 12.1% and 15.1%, respectively, outperforming their FactSet Segment Averages [3] - As of July 31, GPIX offered an 8.17% trailing 12-month dividend yield, while GPIQ provided a 9.9% yield as of August 31 [3] Group 4: Strategic Implications - GPIQ and GPIX present meaningful options for advisors seeking to provide additional income to clients as interest rates decline [4]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 90% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again this month, according to crypto prediction platform Polymarket. https://t.co/Y2HEIGjKFE ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: FedWatch shows a 99% probability of rates being cut to 375–400 bps at the October 29, 2025 meeting. https://t.co/ppComqrnDO ...

Group 1: Market Liquidity and Speculation - Liquidity has been a primary driver of financial asset returns, with unprecedented speculative activity due to the Fed's actions since the pandemic [1][4] - The correlation between Ether and SPACs indicates broad speculation driven by easy liquidity conditions rather than fundamental asset performance [2] - Current financial conditions are very easy, allowing companies easy access to capital, as evidenced by historically narrow corporate spreads and the popularity of SPACs [7] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Fed influences the economy through the banking system, cutting rates to lower the cost of capital and encourage lending when banks restrict lending [5] - Conversely, when lending is excessive, the Fed raises interest rates to slow down the economy [6] - The Fed's recent rate cuts signal potential outcomes, including either a broadening of equity markets or further excess liquidity leading to more speculation [16][17] Group 3: Economic Conditions - The US economy is showing growth above the long-term average, as indicated by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker [10] - Inflation expectations are rising, influenced by tariffs and supply chain disruptions, which are typically inflationary [12][14] - Recent immigration policies are constraining labor supply, potentially leading to rising wages if demand for labor remains strong [14][15] Group 4: Investment Implications - Two potential outcomes from the Fed's rate cuts include a healthy broadening of the market or rampant speculation leading to misallocations within the economy [30] - Bubbles are inherently inflationary, misallocating capital and potentially leading to significant future inflation [18][20] - The current misallocation of capital, such as investments in cryptocurrencies instead of essential infrastructure, could exacerbate inflationary pressures [20]