Inflation & Tariffs - Tariffs are contributing to inflation, with import prices (excluding food and energy) rising 04% in May after a 05% increase in April [3] - Companies with pricing power will pass tariff costs to consumers, while those without will absorb costs via margin cuts [4] - Helen of Troy plans to raise consumer prices by 7% to 10% this summer, while ConAgra faces 7% cost increases due to commodity, labor, steel, and aluminum inflation [4][5] - Levi's anticipates only a 2% to 3% price increase, mitigating most tariff impacts, suggesting a separation of winners and losers based on pricing power [6] - Even if Levi's absorbs costs, someone in their supply chain is still bearing the tariff burden [7] Commodity & Industrial Metals - The CRB raw industrials index matched its March level, the highest since January 2023, indicating rising industrial metal prices [10] - Silver reached its highest level since 2011, and platinum is up about 30% in the past few months, reflecting a global rise in industrial metals [10][11] - The rise in metal prices is attributed to preemptive buying ahead of potential tariffs and the strategic importance of critical minerals in a multi-polar world [11] - Higher metal prices will flow through the supply chain, impacting inflation regardless of whether consumers absorb the costs [12] Company Strategies - Some companies can mitigate tariff effects, while others face margin pressure or need to raise prices [6][7] - Companies are trying to get their hands on metals ahead of potential tariffs [11]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has distinguished itself from other risk assets over the past year, indicating its unique position in the market [1] - The Pragmatic Investor focuses on global macro, international equities, commodities, tech, and cryptocurrencies, aiming to guide investors through various market conditions [1] - The investment group emphasizes building robust and diversified portfolios to preserve and increase wealth over time [1]

Mining Portfolio Strategy - The firm launched a new mining-focused portfolio modeled after its concentrated alpha portfolio, holding no more than ten names and allowing up to 50% cash [2][3] - The portfolio is initially leaning heavily into gold, but may include silver or copper miners [5][6] - The firm is allocating to the portfolio gradually over the coming months, acknowledging the recent run-up in mining stocks [7][8] Gold Market Analysis - Gold represents 20% of all central bank reserve assets, surpassing the euro [3] - Gold is now a tier one asset as of July 2025, potentially leading to gold-backed currencies [3][4] - The firm believes a tremendous supercycle for miners is underway due to expanded cash flow margins [4] Stock Selection & Performance - Top holdings include Newmont, Barrick, and Agnico Eagle, with Agnico Eagle being considered the best in breed due to its management and record highs [5][6] - Newmont and Barrick have room to catch up, as they are still below their 2022 and 2021 highs, respectively [7] - Wheaton Precious Metals is highlighted as a well-run company [8] Silver & Copper Opportunities - Silver is considered to have catching up to do with gold, with the gold-silver ratio expanded to 100 [9] - First Majestic Silver is included in the portfolio with the expectation of outperformance if silver rallies [9][10] - The firm monetized a move in copper and is monitoring the potential impact of a 50% tariff on US copper imports [11][12] Copper Tariff Implications - Morgan Stanley estimates that 36% of copper demand in the United States comes from imports, highlighting potential concerns related to the proposed tariff [14] - Freeport-McMoRan is positioned to benefit due to its leading copper mining capacity in the US, particularly at its El Paso, Texas facility [12][13]

Core Insights - Proactive provides fast, accessible, and informative business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's news team delivers insights across various sectors including biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for its forward-looking approach and enthusiastic adoption of technology [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Fourth Turning Overview - The theory of the Fourth Turning suggests that history moves in predictable cycles of roughly 80 to 100 years, divided into four phases: the High, the Awakening, the Unraveling, and the Fourth Turning [1] - Fourth Turnings are periods of deep crisis that reshape society, often involving wars, revolutions, economic crashes, or widespread social unrest [1] - The current Fourth Turning is driven by economic imbalances, political and social fragmentation, geopolitical shifts with China's rise, and a generational transition [2] Economic Implications - Decades of economic imbalance, fueled by debt accumulation and low interest rates, have created a fragile system [1] - Governments may resort to inflating away debts, which benefits them but erodes citizens' savings and purchasing power [2] - Financial repression, where investors are forced to hold government debt despite diminishing values, may be implemented [2] Geopolitical Risks - Tensions between the US and China, particularly over Taiwan, could escalate into conflict, disrupting global supply chains and financial markets [2] - Polarization between Western nations and the BRICS countries is an early sign of this geopolitical shift [2] Investment Strategies - Bonds could become a risky bet due to inflation and rising yields [3] - Tangible sectors like infrastructure, defense, commodities, manufacturing, and energy may outperform growth-focused tech stocks [3] - Precious metals like gold and silver historically perform well during inflation and currency devaluation [3] - Cryptocurrencies with genuine real-world adoption are more likely to survive the upcoming bear market [3] - Geographic diversification is critical to avoid capital controls [4]

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Market Overview - WTI crude oil initially rose by approximately 1%, reaching $65.77, but later declined from around $75 following geopolitical tensions [1] - WTI experienced a 7% increase for the month but a 9% decrease for the quarter, marking the fourth negative price decline in the last five quarters [2] - Natural gas prices decreased by 16% for the quarter, while Arub gasoline prices fell by 9% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Oil supply is projected to grow four times faster than global oil demand this year [4] - Strong supply growth is expected from OPEC+ countries reversing post-pandemic production cuts, as well as from countries like Brazil, Guana, Norway, and Kazakhstan bringing offshore projects online [4] - US shale supply remains robust, with recent readings showing all-time highs [4] - Global oil demand is growing by approximately 600 thousand barrels per day (KBD) this year [6] Price Forecast and Influencing Factors - Goldman Sachs anticipates a further $10 downside for crude oil prices over the next 12 months due to strong supply [5] - A weaker dollar is expected to boost global oil demand by 300-400 KBD [10] - Recession risk in the US is estimated to be around 30% over the next 12 months, potentially impacting oil demand [7] Commodity Divergence - The analysis suggests the most upside potential for gold and US copper prices, while anticipating downside for oil [11] - China's commodity demand is becoming increasingly divergent, with strong power and copper demand growth but a peak in oil demand and weak LNG gas imports [12]

Group 1 - The Pragmatic Investor focuses on global macro, international equities, commodities, tech, and cryptocurrencies, aiming to guide investors of all levels [1] - The platform offers features such as a portfolio, weekly market updates, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room for investor engagement [1] - James Foord, an economist with a decade of experience in global market analysis, leads The Pragmatic Investor, emphasizing the creation of diversified portfolios to preserve and grow wealth [1]

Group 1 - The Pragmatic Investor focuses on global macro, international equities, commodities, tech, and cryptocurrencies, aiming to guide investors in their investment journey [1] - The platform offers features such as a portfolio, weekly market updates, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room for investor engagement [1] - James Foord, an economist with a decade of experience in global market analysis, leads The Pragmatic Investor, emphasizing the creation of diversified portfolios to preserve and grow wealth [1]

Core Viewpoint - OSCR is identified as a company with significant potential, and despite a recent substantial stock rally, it is still considered undervalued [1]. Group 1 - The Pragmatic Investor focuses on global macro trends, international equities, commodities, technology, and cryptocurrencies, aiming to assist investors at all levels [1]. - The investment group emphasizes building robust and diversified portfolios to preserve and increase wealth over time [1]. Group 2 - The article is authored by an economist with a decade of experience analyzing global markets, leading to insights on investment opportunities [1].