Мы-то планируем сокращение расходов на оборону. У нас вот и в следующем году, и через год, и на ближайшую трёхлетку мы планируем, ну, пока нет договорённости окончательной между Минобороной, Минфином, Миноэкономразвития, но в целом все думают именно в этом направлении, а Европа думает о том, как поднять свои расходы наоборот. Так кто готовится к каким-то агрессивным действиям.Мы или они. Мы, да, хотим завершить специальную военную операцию с нужным нам результатом. Конечно, но на это всё и ээ рассчитывается ...

Macroeconomic Analysis - Higher interest rates are exposing imbalances, leading to an unwind of capital misallocation dating back to 2008 and potentially 1989 [1] - The US stimulus post-GFC attracted capital due to its financial infrastructure [2] - A major capital rotation towards Europe and the rest of the world is underway, rebalancing global capital flows [4] - Zero percent interest rate policies masked underlying imbalances, now exposed with rates at 45%-5% [20][21] - Global synchronous growth is possible due to stronger US performance, surprising Chinese retail sales and exports, and Europe releasing its debt brake on fiscal spending [28] Defense Spending and Industrial Policy - Europe's lack of a military-industrial complex has hindered its technological development [3] - Increased defense spending, potentially reaching $14 trillion, could stimulate a major CapEx boom cycle [4][5][6] - Private capital is crucial for efficiently allocating capital in Europe's defense sector, balancing control and market pressure [13][14] - Europe has a hidden defense sector with many dual-purpose companies, presenting investment opportunities [16] Energy Security and Transition - Energy security, not climate concerns, is driving investments in nuclear, solar, and EVs [17][18] - The US energy independence has changed its geopolitical calculations, particularly regarding the Middle East [22][23][24] - Underinvestment in key commodities like copper and lithium, coupled with misallocation of capital, suggests a potential reversal [31][33]

Fincantieri plans to focus some Italian civil and military shipyards on just making warships, in the latest sign that Europe’s defense-spending bonanza is reshaping industrial strategy https://t.co/jr5vHaHxiD ...

China’s envoy to Canberra urged Australia not to be “incited” by NATO’s support for US demands to sharply raise defense spending and instead cooperate with Beijing https://t.co/ZdyQce4R1p ...

Between tariffs and defense spending, ties between the US and Japan aren't what they used to be, writes @GearoidReidy (via @opinion) https://t.co/BxHfxI4NDT ...

From @WSJopinion: America has long asked its European allies to spend more on their own defense. So the astonishing news out of this week’s summit is the near unanimity: NATO allies have agreed to devote 5% of their economies to military spending. https://t.co/LypEr2Q6ZU ...

Macron has pledged to increase defense spending, but the increased military outlays come with hard choices for a France struggling with deficits and debt. https://t.co/vEUjwC2W7M ...

ETF Market Trends & Flows - Vanguard 流出资金显著，其中 Vanguard ETF 流出 66 亿美元，Mid-Cap ETF 流出 44 亿美元[3] - 全球国防 ETF 吸引了 70 亿欧元资金流入，尤其欧洲国防 ETF 的资金流入加速[4] - 欧洲小型股今年上涨 20%，表现强劲，但未引起足够重视，值得关注其预示的信号[15] Defense Sector Analysis - 国防领域更多是工业板块，技术投资（如人工智能、无人机和网络安全）是表现良好的关键因素[6] - 欧洲国防 ETF 正在逆势增长，UAD 等 ETF 表现出色，而 SHIELD 等全球化策略的 ETF 也获得关注[8][9] - 假设北约将 GDP 的 3.5% 用于军事装备，年度国防开支将增加 5000 亿美元[26][27] Company Specifics - 摩根大通积极拓展主动型 ETF 业务，新推出的高收益 ETF 获得 20 亿美元的初始投资[20] - BlackRock 推出 Texas ETF (TEXN)，费用率为 20 个基点，旨在为投资者提供投资德州经济的途径[20] - Cavalli Commercial Aerospace and Defense (GCAD) ETF 资产规模较小，为 900 万美元，但一直在增长，费用在达到 2500 万美元前免除[22] - GCAD ETF 今年以来总回报率增长 19%，超过标普 500 指数的 43%[23][24] - 波音公司面临挑战，但其飞机安全性仍然是行业标杆，FAA 权重占比 51%，且积压了大量订单[28][30][31]

walk us through the thinking around this 2.1%. It's fascinating that Spain can say they can deliver the same capability targets that NATO wants for less of the spend. Where is that math coming from. Is NATO doing that 5% math wrong.Basically the uh main idea is very simple is that the necessary spending will come as a result of a fullyfledged analysis of the capabilities that are needed to or provide uh for the the the NATO uh defense on the threats that have been identified. There's been a complete analysi ...

Market Trends & Geopolitical Risks - Asia is expected to open cautiously due to fatigue in Wall Street's rally and ongoing geopolitical risks [1] - The market is closely watching Asia tech, especially NVIDIA's suppliers, after NVIDIA's all-time highs [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened by buying $1.2 billion of local currency to defend the currency peg [3][13] - President Trump is considering naming the next Fed Chair early, potentially undermining Chair Powell [3][4] - The U S will hold a meeting with Iran next week, but the extent of damage to Iranian nuclear facilities remains uncertain [5][24][25] - Trade truce deadlines are approaching, creating uncertainty about the impact of unresolved tariff issues on inflation [35] Monetary Policy & Currency Dynamics - Markets anticipate that Trump naming a Fed Chair successor earlier could undermine Fed autonomy and lead to a dovish chair, impacting the U S dollar [18][35] - The broader dollar trajectory is for dollar weakness [14] - The Hong Kong dollar is at risk of falling out of its peg against the U S dollar, necessitating intervention [15] - The PBOC is helping to drive down benchmark borrowing costs in Hong Kong, creating an arbitrage opportunity that is pushing down the Hong Kong dollar against the U S dollar [16][17] Company Specific News - CATL is prioritizing overseas expansion due to irrational competition and price wars in China's EV market [1][35] - Zero acquired Melio, a payments platform, for $2.5 billion to bolster its U S offering and capture more market share [37][38] - Xiaomi is launching its first electric SUV, the YU7, and investors are closely watching the pricing and initial consumer reactions [56][57][58]