AND I GOT THAT TO MEAN THAT I THINK HE'S GOING TO START RECOMMENDING LOWER RATES. >> JOINING US NOW, FINANCIAL TIMES COLUMNIST GILLIAN TETT. GILLIAN, IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE.LET ME READ TO YOU WHAT THE PRESIDENT POSTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS FED DECISION. HE WROTE ON TRUTH SOCIAL TWO Q GDP JUST OUT. HE'S TALKING ABOUT THE GDP REPORT THAT CAME OUT THIS MORNING, 3%.WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED. TOO LATE. MUST NOW LOWER THE RATE.NO INFLATION. LET PEOPLE BUY AND REFINANCE THEIR HOMES. DO YOU EXPECT THE PRES ...

China’s top leadership touted their nation’s economic strength while vowing to maintain support to keep growth humming, after the start of President Donald Trump’s trade war proved less damaging than some expected https://t.co/sIvvorOP1E ...

Economists are combining modern tools and old ideas to make sense of today’s trade war. It is a good time to revive Albert Hirschman’s work https://t.co/hXl1NgUjgx ...

President Trump’s tariff threats against Thailand and Cambodia pushed them toward ending their deadly border clash this week, showing again his willingness to use a trade war cudgel and upstaging China in its own backyard https://t.co/eqwX0cqJtL ...

Trade Talk Status - US-China trade talks in Stockholm concluded with mixed signals, Trump acknowledged Monday was not good, but today was better [1] - The talks ended without a confirmed 90-day pause on tariffs, a key market expectation [2] - Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative will brief President Trump, who will decide on the pause [2][3] - Another talk is expected in about 90 days, renewing focus on the August 12th deadline for tariff snapback [3] China's Economic Position - China's economy is "swimming in place" despite tariffs, indicating resilience [4] - China possesses negotiating leverage, exemplified by rare earth export controls [4] - China feels confident in its position [4] Tariff Impact and Future Scenarios - Companies relying on China imports, like toy companies, are experiencing pain, expecting it to last until at least 2026 [6] - The challenge lies in the uncertainty of future tariff levels, hindering production movement [7] - Toys and games are the most exposed sector from a consumer perspective due to reliance on China imports [8] - Tariff rates from China are converging with rates from elsewhere, potentially reducing the incentive to move production [9][10] - A realistic worst-case scenario involves tariffs staying at 30%, potentially leading to empty shelves and inflationary impacts [18] - Tariffs could reach close to 50% when combined with previous trade war tariffs and sectoral tariffs [19] US Strategy and Potential Concessions - The US may offer concessions on export controls and fentanyl tariffs to secure a meeting between President Trump and President Xi [12] China's Compliance and Economic Management - China has previously fallen short on commitments to buy US exports [15] - China is managing the situation by maintaining stable economic numbers and implementing stimulus measures [21][22] - China has kept interest rates at historic lows and increased fiscal activity [21]

Core Insights - Rare earths are critical elements in the U.S.-China trade war, with China controlling approximately 70% of mining and 90% of processing [2][3] - The U.S. is making efforts to establish a domestic supply chain for rare earths, highlighted by a $400 million investment in MP Materials and a $1 billion loan from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan [4] Industry Overview - Rare earth magnets are essential for various applications, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense equipment, and high-tech consumer electronics [2] - China's monopoly in the rare earth market has increased, with low production costs making it difficult for other producers to compete [3] Company Developments - MP Materials is the only operational rare earth mine in the U.S., located in Mountain Pass, California, and is expanding its magnet-making operations [4] - Energy Fuels has been refining rare earths at its White Mesa facility and plans to increase production from 1,000 metric tons to 6,000 metric tons of NdPr, which could support up to 6 million electric vehicles [5][6] - Energy Fuels is also advancing its capabilities to produce other heavy rare earths, such as dysprosium, terbium, and samarium, contingent on government incentives [6] Market Dynamics - China's export controls on rare earths have disrupted various industries, particularly the automotive sector, as part of its response to perceived unfair actions by the U.S. and other countries [3][4] - Despite advancements in U.S. production capabilities, experts indicate that the country remains heavily reliant on China for rare earth materials [6]

Economists are combining modern tools and old ideas to make sense of today’s trade war. It is a good time to revive Albert Hirschman’s work https://t.co/R58JrV1znC ...

Bloomberg's David Gura is back with us now. So this 15% tariff rate, put that into perspective for us and what kind of impact we might see here at home. >> So we've seen the floor rise over the last few weeks.There was a lot of talk about being like a 10% floor for these tariffs. Then after Japan, it moved up to to 15. So again, it's significant because the baseline before this was so much lower, >> 1.2%.Right. >> Exactly. And so in the Europe's case, a little bit higher than that.But we've heard from compa ...

this all. If there's a will there's a way to some of these deals. It certainly plays a role here Megan.Thank you. For more on how the Chinese are thinking about trade negotiations, let's bring in Eunice Yun, live from Beijing. Hey, Eunice. Hey, Leslie.Well. >> China is reiterating the commerce minister's recent remarks that there is no reason to return to a trade war. The minister said practice has proven that through dialog and consultation, we can properly manage contradictions.So the Foreign Ministry rep ...

We've reached a deal. It's a uh good deal for everybody, I believe. And uh it's I think you were saying this is probably the biggest deal ever reached in any capacity, trade or beyond trade.>> It is a hole in one. More so perhaps for Donald Trump than for Ursula Vanderelion, the European Commission president, coming right here to Turnbury, one of Donald Trump's two golf courses in Scotland, his motherland, of course, to settle a US EU trade deal. 15% will be the rate that's charged on most EU goods.That of ...