Company Performance - CBOE has experienced relative underperformance compared to other exchanges and the financial sector despite strong earnings [2][4] - The stock's underperformance may be attributed to full positioning and market sentiment rather than a specific identifiable reason [4][5] - Morgan Stanley has reiterated an underweight rating on CBOE, indicating a cautious outlook [5] Market Outlook - The environment for CBOE is expected to improve in 2026, with a belief that volatility will increase significantly even in a bull market [3][5] - The current VIX is near a low for the year, below 15, suggesting potential for increased market activity [2] Comparisons with Other Companies - CME Group and NASDAQ have received reiterated overweight ratings, with target prices set at 320 and 111 respectively, indicating a more favorable outlook compared to CBOE [6] - Schwab's performance is driven by different factors, such as cash balance sweeps, and is not directly comparable to the exchanges like NASDAQ and CME [6][7] - NASDAQ is highlighted as a strong performer benefiting from IPOs and increased trading activity, positioning it as a "crown jewel" among the group [8]

Joining us now is Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist, Lzanne Saunders. Uh Lzanne, great to see you. We're finishing up a third straight, you know, very rewarding year for uh US equity investors.What's your kind of headline message to them in terms of what ought to be expected in 2026 and what are the key themes they should focus on. >> Well, well, not that history ever serves as a as a perfect guide. I love Warren Buffett's quote about if uh if it market, you know, predicting market returns was ju ...

Markets never sleep, they just move in silence. 🌌Volatility is the signal, discipline is the edge.Trade the trend. Manage the risk. https://t.co/menmKBItht ...

A Review of Major Institutions' 2025 Bitcoin Price Forecasts: Most 2025 Bitcoin forecasts missed on price, especially aggressive targets in the USD 200,000–250,000 range, as volatility and deleveraging repeatedly interrupted rallies. The year showed that correct long-term narratives did not translate into precise price outcomes, with price performance proving highly sensitive to drawdowns and risk repricing. Read more https://t.co/iL8t0Sym0t ...

Here are five counter-intuitive things I have learned about investing over the years:1. Seek volatility, don't avoid it — most people are taught to find "safe" assets and use diversification to mitigate volatility. The best investors look for asymmetry and they bet big when odds are in their favor.2. Knowing how to sell is more important than knowing what to buy — we have lived through an asset inflation for the last 20 years. A monkey could throw a dart and hit an investment that appreciated in value. It i ...

Would be hilarious if BTC chopped around for a month and then decided to wake up and be extra volatile Christmas week when everyone is off screens hanging with family. ...

💡 Key Takeaways🔹 Track your 15-day point balance daily: inactivity drops you below 220-230 eligibility thresholds🔹 Exit delisted tokens before Dec. 19 when spreads widen and liquidity dries up🔹 Monitor when funding rates exceed 0.01%: historically signals 20%+ correction within 48 hours🔹 Brace for Jan. 13 CPI release as primary catalyst for volatility flush🔹 Avoid low-cap tokens with 3x+ turnover: exits become difficult during selloffsStay informed, stay ahead:https://t.co/8jZzrytttH8/8 ...

🔮 January Catalysts Ahead🔹 Jan. 13 CPI release: 264% funding rate spike signals traders positioned for sharp volatility🔹 Jan. 15 MSCI DAT classification: Potential $2.8B-$8.8B outflows from Bitcoin-heavy companies🔹 Feb. 2 Brazil regulation: $2M-$37M capital requirements and $100K transaction caps take effect🔹 Social sentiment at 4.79/10 shows disconnect between bearish mood and bullish leverage7/8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ProShares Ultra S&P 500 ETF (SSO) and the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF (SPXL) are both leveraged ETFs designed to amplify returns from daily movements in the S&P 500, with SPXL offering triple leverage and SSO offering double leverage, impacting their risk profiles and potential returns [1][2][7]. Cost and Size Comparison - Both SSO and SPXL have an expense ratio of 0.87% and similar costs, but SPXL has a slightly higher dividend yield of 0.75% compared to SSO's 0.69% [3]. - As of December 16, 2025, SSO has a one-year return of 16.54% while SPXL has a return of 17.10% [3]. - SSO has assets under management (AUM) of $7.3 billion, while SPXL has $6.2 billion [3]. Performance and Risk Comparison - Over five years, SSO has a maximum drawdown of -46.73%, while SPXL has a significantly higher drawdown of -63.80% [4]. - An investment of $1,000 would grow to $2,588 in SSO and $3,144 in SPXL over five years, indicating higher potential gains with SPXL but also greater risk [4]. - SPXL's higher beta of 3.07 compared to SSO's 2.02 indicates greater volatility and risk associated with SPXL [3][4]. Portfolio Composition - SPXL holds just over 500 stocks, with significant allocations in technology (35%), financial services (14%), and consumer cyclical (11%), with top holdings including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft [5]. - SSO has a similar sector profile and top holdings as SPXL, but with 2x daily leverage [6]. Implications for Investors - Leveraged ETFs like SSO and SPXL present higher risks but also the potential for significant returns, with SPXL offering higher earning potential at the cost of increased volatility [7][8]. - SPXL's total returns have outperformed SSO over the past five years, but its higher max drawdown indicates more severe price fluctuations [8][9].

Economic Outlook & Growth Drivers - The economy faces hurdles including government shutdowns affecting growth and delaying data collection [2] - "Prosec" (production for security) is a key positive thesis, focusing on domestic production in areas of national security interest like chips, data centers, AI, electricity, and rare earth minerals [3][4][5] - Tariffs are starting to impact earnings potential and may spread to consumers [6][7] - Tax cuts, tilted towards upper-end households, and deregulation are expected to inject cash into the economy in the first half of 2026 [9][10][11] - The dynamic properties inside the tax bill should facilitate 23% to 25% growth next year [14] Market & Investment Strategies - Companies are questioning spending on AI, which could drag on the economy if it slows [6][15] - The market and economy have diverged, with a "little i-shaped economy" where a small segment is doing well while the rest is just okay [16][17] - Fund manager surveys show bullish sentiment, but there's a disconnect with the real economy [19] - Tech companies may become more careful with spending plans [21] AI & Technology - Focus should shift from those working on AI to those working with AI, emphasizing adoption policies to drive productivity growth [24][25] - Data centers are driving significant debt issuance, estimated at $150 billion to $175 billion per year [30] - Governments are accelerating the development of AI value chains for economic and national security [52] - Sovereign AI is a key theme, with governments focusing on algorithms, critical minerals for semiconductors, and data [52][53] Crypto & Regulation - The Senate is considering the Clarity Act to provide a market structure for crypto in the US [33] - Banks are exploring stablecoins, which could lead to greater adoption and efficiency in the financial system [35][36] - Bitcoin is heavily influenced by leverage players, requiring new standards and safeguards [37][38][39] Trade & Geopolitics - Uncertainty around tariff policies is expected to continue, along with export controls and trade restrictions [42][43] - Companies are using scenario planning to manage geopolitical risks [46] - Geopolitical competition for resources like critical minerals and fresh water is a key story for 2026 [47][48] - Geopolitical competition around access to capital and the growing politization of capital allocation are reshaping the global financial system [50]