Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis points (0.25%) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The debate centers on whether the Fed will signal one or two more rate cuts after September [2] - The market is pricing in rate cuts that could bring the federal funds rate down to approximately 3% by the end of next year [7] Labor Market & Economic Outlook - Softening labor market indicators, with payroll employment growth at only 30,000 per month in the last three months, are a key concern driving potential rate cuts [5] - The market generally agrees with the view that downside risks to the labor market outweigh upside risks to inflation, justifying rate cuts [11] - There's a possibility that steeper rate cuts could lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a deterioration in the dollar's value [10] Fed Policy & Internal Dynamics - Most members of the committee are expected to align with the Chairman's direction on rates, with disagreements primarily focused on timing [15][16] - The influence of a newly appointed member from the administration is expected to be limited during the upcoming meeting [19][21] - The degree of disagreement among members tends to be small, as everyone is evaluating the same economic information [22]

Market Performance - U.S. equities experienced a robust rally on September 11, 2025, with all three major indices closing at record highs, driven by optimism over a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][2] - The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to approximately 6586 points, marking a 17.69% increase year-over-year [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.3%, closing above 46,000 for the first time, adding over 500 points [2] - The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.7%, achieving a new record high, influenced by mixed performances among technology stocks [2] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August indicated a headline annual inflation of 2.9% and core inflation steady at 3.1%, with a monthly rise of 0.4% in headline CPI [3] - Initial jobless claims reached a near four-year high, signaling a softening labor market, which reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - Treasury yields eased in response to the economic reports, as traders anticipated the Fed's first rate cut of the year [3] Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's meeting on September 17, 2025, is highly anticipated, with expectations for the first interest rate cut of the year [4] - Key economic data releases are scheduled, including the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report and Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Housing Starts [5] Corporate News - Oracle (ORCL) shares fell 3.6% after a previous surge of nearly 36% due to excitement over AI-related contracts [6] - Tesla (TSLA) gained 6%, while Apple (AAPL) rose over 1%, and Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) saw slight increases [7] - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) shares soared 29% following news of a potential takeover bid from Paramount Skydance [8] - Synopsys Inc. (SNPS) plummeted 35.8% after missing earnings estimates, while GameStop Corp. (GME) rose 3.3% after beating expectations [10] Earnings Announcements - Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is expected to report earnings with a forecasted EPS of $4.21, a 10.50% increase year-over-year [11] - Other companies reporting include RH and RF Industries, with RF Industries expected to show a significant 200% increase in EPS year-over-year [11]

Market Trend & Prediction - Bitcoin has experienced a 3% decrease over the last month, but is up 20% since the start of the year [1] - Fundrete's Tom Lee predicts Bitcoin could double by Christmas, potentially reaching $200,000 before year end [2] - The analysis suggests a potential increase of approximately $2 trillion in Bitcoin's total market cap in around 100 days [3] Key Factors & Analysis - Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are highly sensitive to monetary policy, with September 17th identified as a potential catalyst [2] - Crypto assets typically perform well in the fourth quarter [2] - Bitcoin is considered the most sensitive macro asset to global liquidity conditions [3] - A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is expected to positively impact Bitcoin's value [4]

8 September 2025 | 4:25PM EDT Global Views: Still Softening 1. The August employment report confirms that the US labor market has softened materially. Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to just 22k, although our broader estimate of underlying trend job growth—which is based on moving averages of both the establishment and household survey—edged up to 41k because of stronger household employment. We are penciling in an upward revision to the August payroll estimate next month, as seen in 12 of the past 15 Septemb ...

From @WSJopinion: Presidential control of monetary policy would be a threat to financial stability and American prosperity. Congress must step up to protect its own authority, write Phil Gramm and Jeb Hensarling. https://t.co/YLfcaIp4fj ...

Nomination & Independence Concerns - Steven Myron's nomination as a Fed governor faces scrutiny due to his strong support for President Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs [1] - Senate Democrats question Myron's independence, citing his proposed reforms that could increase presidential control over monetary policy [2] - Concerns arise over Myron's continued employment with the Council of Economic Advisers, even during his potential Fed term, raising conflict of interest issues [4][5] Confirmation Process - Despite concerns, Myron's nomination is expected to be approved by the Senate Banking Committee, where Republicans hold a two-vote majority, and sent to the Senate floor [5] Economic Policy & Data Integrity - Myron's views on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and data integrity are under examination, particularly regarding claims of manipulated job numbers [3][4]

Monetary Policy & Central Bank Role - The central bank's most important job is to prevent depressions and hyperinflations [1] - Independence of monetary policy is critical for the central bank's success [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee is an independent group with a monumental task [2] Mandates & Responsibilities - The role will be carried out pursuant to the mandates assigned by Congress [2] - Opinions and decisions will be based on analysis of the macroeconomy and what's best for its long-term stewardship [2] - The intention is to preserve independence and serve the American people to the best of ability [2]

Monetary Policy Objectives - The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) advises on fiscal and regulatory policies to achieve full employment and stable prices [1] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) also aims to advance America's economic prosperity, mirroring goals in the Employment Act of 1946 and the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 [2] - Congress tasked the Fed with pursuing price stability, maximum employment, and moderate long-term interest rates [10] Central Bank Independence and Role - Independence of monetary policy is critical for the central bank's success in preventing depressions and hyperinflation [6] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is an independent group with a monumental task, and its independence should be preserved [8] - The Fed's role in safeguarding the financial system is of paramount importance [6] - The Fed manages financial system liquidity, oversees global financial institutions, and sets varying prices of money for borrowers and lenders [8][9] Economic Impact - Monetary policy and market structure significantly influence the price and availability of credit, impacting major decisions like purchasing a car or home [4][5] - Effective monetary policy is critical to the well-functioning of the economy, the preservation of America's robust capital markets, and the growing prosperity of the nation [10]

I imagine you'll be tuned in later on this morning when that hearing begins. But what would you like to hear. I think that he's already foreshadowed what he's going to say.The Senate is worried about the compromising the Fed's independence, and that's probably the only thing that could hang up this confirmation hearing. And he's already stated in his opening remarks that he's going to honor that. Obviously, what that means in practice once you're in the Federal Reserve bill, remains to be seen.But he's goin ...

All right, welcome back to the exchange. We've got breaking news out of Washington DC. Steve Leeman has that story.Steve, Dom, thanks. We have the opening statement for Steven Meyer. He is the candidate for a Federal Reserve job uh that is open right now.And he is going to say that independence of monetary policy is critical for its success. He pledges or he says he intends to preserve the independence of the Fed. That is a obviously a question when it comes to uh appointees of President Trump to the Federa ...