Market Expectations - Markets anticipate a sell-off in preparation for the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday [1] - Markets are pricing in a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve [1] - Markets believe rate cuts are no longer guaranteed for September [1] Federal Reserve Policy - If Powell hints at no rate cuts on Friday, the market will react negatively [1]

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market is uncertain about Fed Chair Powell's upcoming statements on future rate cuts at Jackson Hole [1] - The Fed is expected to maintain maximum policy optionality, potentially conflicting with the White House's desires [2] - The advisor suggests the Fed should have already cut rates, advocating for a cut in September [11] - A 25 basis point cut is recommended, but a 50 basis point cut is possible if a poor labor report precedes the September meeting [11] - Maintaining optionality risks being late, potentially leading to a larger policy error [12][13] Inflation & Economic Outlook - The advisor notes "sticky inflation" at 25%-3% and suggests that as long as inflationary expectations are anchored, the economy can tolerate this level [13] - The advisor argues that the current 2% inflation target may be inappropriate given structural changes in the economy [13][14] - The advisor believes the Fed is excessively data-dependent, reacting to past data rather than anticipating future trends [3][4] Labor Market - The unemployment rate of 42% is the only reassuring indicator in the labor market [8] - Other labor market indicators, along with company reports and college graduate outcomes, suggest a softening labor market [9] - The labor market's decline is not linear, with potential for sudden downturns following initial slowdowns [10][11]

lows might actually be hoping that happens. So let's kick off and dive in with Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. Equity strategist, Mike Wilson. Mike, it's great to have you back on the program.A lot of people they may have sold during the panic. They kind of they haven't been back in. They're waiting for an entry point.Is that coming. >> Well good afternoon Brian. I mean, look, I don't know if they're going to get a big, fat pitch like we got in April.That's probably very unlikely. We think ultimately that was t ...

Market Expectations & Potential Scenarios - Markets anticipate a potentially hawkish tone from Powell at Jackson Hole, leading to a sell-off [1] - The market is pricing in the possibility that rate cuts are not guaranteed for September [2] - A soft stance from Powell, hinting at likely rate cuts, could trigger a significant market rally [1] - If no rate cuts are indicated for September, the market may face a challenging 4-6 weeks [1] Market Sentiment & Uncertainty - Market aversion to uncertainty is evident in current price action [1] - The market is front-running the potential move of no rate cuts, contributing to the sell-off [2]

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock features little change this morning after closing out flat in Monday's trading session. Investors in wait and see mode ahead of the Fed's meeting in Jackson Hole, where traders will search for clues on the central bank's plans for interest rates. Plus, Home Depot out with its earnings results.The world's largest home improvement company posting disappointing s ...

Interest Rate Expectations - Goldman Sachs now anticipates three rate cuts in 2025 [1] - The initial rate cut is projected for September [1]

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - MetLife Investment Management has anticipated the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in September [2] - The market is pricing in a rate cut in September as a done deal [5] - The Federal Reserve research institution is aligning towards rate cuts in September [4] - A steady decrease in rates is more likely than a larger rate cut due to concerns about making a "transitory bet" twice in a row [6] Labor Market - MetLife Investment Management signaled softening in the labor market before the last jobs report revisions [2] - AI's productivity boost will come through the labor quality channel [9] Inflation & Tariffs - The Federal Reserve views tariffs as a temporary price increase [4] - The impact of tariffs on prices is expected, but most economists believe it will be transitory [6] Investment Strategy - MetLife Investment Management is most bullish on financials, which could benefit from volatility, curve steepening, and financing productivity [7] - Banks with the best organizational structures will have the upper hand in financing the productivity story [8]

RT The Rollup (@therollupco)"People are trying to figure out how to time the market more or less with the rate cuts." - @ayyyeandy"I'm seeing is two different schools of thought, one is markets going to end in Q4, other is higher for longer super cycle.""These guys aren't first cyclers." - @robbie_rollup"Our audience has been around for a while." ...

PPI came in VERY hot.Essentially meaning Inflation is rather high.This does not bode well for rate cuts happening.However, the FedWatch is still anticipating a rate cut in september at 94.5% chanceOctober, currently pricing in a 59% chance at a SECOND rate cut, 39% chance at it staying flat after September cut&& what is even WILDER is December is a 47.8% chance at a THIRD rate cut, with a 42.9% chance that it stays flat after a SECOND rate cut in October... ...

Stick with me here. Let's bring in David Wessel, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. He suspects that putting more names on the Fed chair uh potential list will put even more pressure on Powell when it comes to rate cuts.David, uh let let's put this back on the screen here. These uh these Fed chair candidates for just a moment. It looks like a choir all singing against uh what the Fed chair uh Jay Powell has been doing and perhaps in support of President Trump's call for rate cut ...