Market Stability - US Treasury market volatility gauge fell to its lowest level in nearly three-and-a-half years [1] - The decline in volatility suggests the market is stabilizing after months of turmoil [1]

Core Viewpoint - EQT Corp is experiencing a pullback from its record high, but still maintains a strong year-to-date performance and potential for recovery due to bullish signals [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - EQT Corp is currently down 1.5% at $54.06, following a peak of $61.02 on June 23 [1]. - The stock has a year-to-date gain of 17.4%, with support at $52 likely to mitigate further losses [1]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - EQT is within one standard deviation of its 126-day moving average, having traded above this trendline in at least eight of the last ten trading days [2]. - Historically, similar conditions have led to a 60% chance of the stock being higher one month later, with an average gain of 7.1% [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Short-term options traders are exhibiting bearish sentiment, as indicated by a put/call open interest ratio of 1.36, ranking in the 92nd percentile of annual readings [3]. - A potential unwinding of this pessimism could provide additional support for EQT's stock [3]. Group 4: Options Market - Options are currently seen as an affordable strategy for investors looking to capitalize on EQT's future movements, with a Volatility Index of 33% in the 9th percentile of its annual range [4]. - This low volatility expectation suggests that options traders are anticipating minimal price fluctuations in the near term [4].

Core Viewpoint - Chewy (CHWY) stock experienced a significant decline of over 20% after reaching a two-year high of $48.62 on June 6, primarily due to an 11% drop following earnings on June 11, but is currently testing a historically bullish trendline [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CHWY is trading within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average, having closed above this trendline in eight of the last ten sessions [2] - Historical data indicates that similar signals have led to a 78% chance of CHWY being higher one month later, with an average gain of 10.9% [3] - From its current price of $38.68, a similar gain would eliminate its 9.3% quarter-to-date deficit and extend its 15.4% year-to-date lead [3] Group 2: Technical Indicators - CHWY's 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 33, indicating it is in "oversold" territory, which has historically preceded rallies [3] - The stock is experiencing a potential short squeeze, with short interest up 7.7% and 15.51 million shares sold short, accounting for 7.3% of the total float [5] Group 3: Options Market Sentiment - The 10-day put/call volume ratio for CHWY is 0.68, indicating a higher level of pessimism among options traders compared to the past year [6] - Options are currently affordably priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 38% in the low 7th percentile of its annual range, suggesting a potential premium-selling strategy [7]

Tech Sector Analysis - Tech earnings continue to print well into the double digits, reaching all-time highs, driven by fundamentals rather than just multiple expansion [1] - The value of tech in portfolios is significant, especially with tariff uncertainty, making US growth exposure valuable [2] - Overweighting tech in portfolios can be justified if earnings continue to print and multiples expand, particularly if a tariff-induced slowdown occurs [3] - Quality active management is crucial within the tech sector, specifically within the "Magnificent 7" portion [4] Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The market is still awaiting the bite of tariffs, with a wide range of potential outcomes [5][6] - Commentary on consumer behavior and business investment decisions is important in assessing the impact of tariffs [6] - Focus should be on how tariff rates on major partners (Canada, Mexico, China) affect the economy, while monitoring GDP resilience [8] - There are concerns about the lower cohort, with negative year-on-year card spend and light comps in certain sectors [7] Investment Strategy - A balanced approach in a multi-asset portfolio is currently most appropriate [10] - Mid-single-digit yields on core fixed income are competitive with mid-single-digit earnings yields on equities, given elevated multiples [11] - The strategy is to remain patient, vigilant, and opportunistic, waiting for the next bout of volatility [12] - US growth is expected to be the dominant driver of 10-year Treasury yields in the long term, with yields in the mid-4% range commensurate with US growth [14]

Market Trends & Global Financial System - Investors are wary of longer-dated debt due to market volatility [1][4] - The financial system is repricing from a unipolar to a multipolar system [2] - Central banks are prioritizing financial stability over price stability, leading to higher inflation [3] Investment Strategies & Asset Allocation - Investors should consider hard assets like gold and private credit [3][4] - It's better to stay closer to home and position for upside in markets like equities or commodities [5] US Economic Outlook & Fiscal Policy - Tariffs won't generate enough capital to sustain the deficit [2] - The US may face austerity measures, including spending cuts, potentially starting in 2026 [2][5] - Voters are showing less tolerance for fiscal profligacy [6] - The US can continue spending at a clip of 6-7%, but eventually needs to find ways to fund the Treasury, cut spending, or depreciate the currency [7]

US dollar volatility may have settled down in recent weeks, but analysts at Goldman Sachs see plenty of reasons to think it may start trading as a “riskier” currency again https://t.co/AsrkK69OTg ...

Short-term volatility in Europe’s natural gas market dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years as ample supply overshadows concerns about potential demand spikes across the globe https://t.co/gbK86tZwdo ...

M&A Market Dynamics - Oppenheimer upgraded Microsoft to outperform with a $600 price target, citing AI revenue as a major driver [1] - Early in the year, M&A activity was hindered by market volatility, making it difficult to finalize deals [4][5] - Antitrust scrutiny is perceived to be more pragmatic under the current administration compared to the previous one [6][8] - The current administration is seen as more willing to negotiate and find solutions to get deals approved, contrasting with the prior administration's approach [9] - The market has stabilized from a volatility perspective, leading to expectations of increased M&A activity [9][11] Antitrust and Regulatory Environment - The previous administration was viewed as employing outdated antitrust theories and hindering deal-making [7] - The approval of the T-Mobile deal with Sprint by the current administration is cited as an example of a pragmatic approach that benefits consumers [8] - The Hewlett Packard deal for Juniper, approved with divestitures, demonstrates the current administration's willingness to negotiate [9] - Anti-corporate sentiment was perceived to have influenced antitrust decisions in the past [11][12] - While the current administration is populist and aims to protect consumers, it is also taking a pragmatic approach to antitrust [12][13]

Volatility is your friend. ...

Trade and Tariffs - The market is showing fatigue towards tariff headlines, anticipating room for negotiation in trade talks [2] - The market expects potential trade deals, preferring them over high tariffs, leading to current calmness [3] - Average tariff levels are expected to be slightly higher, but not reaching the high levels seen in early April [5] - Uncertainty remains regarding how much tariffs will be passed on to corporations versus absorbed by consumers, impacting consumer spending patterns [10] Monetary Policy and Fiscal Outlook - The Federal Reserve's September decision will heavily rely on the jobs report [7][8] - Tariffs are seen as a revenue source to fund additional spending, potentially leading the US Treasury to issue more short-term debt to keep funding costs down [13] - Aggressive rate cuts by the Fed could lead to higher back-end yields, advocating for curve steepness [19] - The market is closely watching the private sector's willingness to buy government bonds, as they are now the primary price setters [14][15] UK Gilts Market - Concerns persist regarding the UK's fiscal situation and funding, especially with slowing growth [20] - Stability and the Bank of England's proactive rate cuts could make gilts attractive [22]