🇺🇸 FOMC: Polymarket users now predict a 95% chance the Fed will cut rates 25bps later this month (Oct 29th) https://t.co/c9NZ3V7hap ...

Valuation Concerns - The Shiller PE ratio of the S&P 500 is currently just under 40, indicating that investors are paying excessively for historical earnings [2][3] - Historical benchmarks show that when the Shiller PE exceeds 32, significant market downturns have followed, including the Great Depression, the Dot-Com Bubble, and the 2021-2022 correction [4][6][9] Historical Context - In September 1929, the Shiller PE reached approximately 32.6, leading to an S&P 500 decline of over 83% during the Great Depression [6] - The Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 in December 1999, resulting in a 49% decline in the S&P 500 from its high in March 2000 to its low in October 2002 [8] - The Shiller PE was around 38.6 in late 2021, with the S&P 500 falling 25% from its peak in January 2022 to its low in October 2022 [9] Current Market Implications - The current S&P 500 level of 6,671 suggests potential downside risks of 25-50%, with historical corrections indicating similar valuation levels [10][13] - Extreme valuations are compounded by various macroeconomic challenges, including persistent inflation, high interest rates, trade war uncertainties, and rising US debt [11][14] Investment Strategies - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark by generating returns exceeding 105% since inception, suggesting that diversified strategies may mitigate risks associated with high valuations [5][18] - The Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio has also surpassed its all-cap stocks benchmark, indicating that a diversified approach can leverage favorable market conditions while limiting losses [18] Market Dynamics - The current market environment is characterized by a confluence of risks that could amplify one another, creating a "perfect storm" scenario for potential downturns [11][22] - Despite historical evidence indicating significant downside risk, markets have often defied expectations, raising questions about whether current valuations are justified or indicative of speculative excess [19][20]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The speaker advocates for a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, suggesting a 25 basis points reduction at a time, to avoid potential mistakes given conflicting data on the labor market and GDP growth [6][9][10] - The speaker believes the labor market is weak, contrasting with stronger GDP growth, creating a puzzle that requires either GDP numbers to decline or the labor market to rebound [7][8] - The speaker notes that tariff uncertainty and firms waiting to assess the impact of AI are contributing to the slowdown in hiring [11][12][13] - The speaker suggests that current financial market conditions are bifurcated, with loose conditions for corporate America but tighter conditions for Main Street America due to higher mortgage, auto loan, and credit card interest rates [15][16] - The speaker acknowledges the risk of being "lulled" into reducing rates based on weak payrolls data, potentially fueling financial market excesses, but emphasizes the Fed's mandate of maximum employment and stable prices [21][22] Inflation & Sectoral Reallocation - The speaker is not overly concerned about inflation, including tariff-induced or AI-induced inflation, as sectoral reallocation may offset demand increases in one sector with decreases in others [25][26][27][28] - The speaker estimates inflation is running at approximately 25%, and suggests focusing on core inflation to avoid volatility from energy prices [28] AI Impact & Structural Changes - The speaker expresses concern that the potential impact of AI on the labor market could be a structural change, which monetary policy is not designed to address [35] - The speaker differentiates the current situation from the previous year, citing tariff uncertainty and the AI factor as key differences, with unemployment not being a major concern last year [34]

Euro-area inflation is likely to slow less significantly below the ECB’s 2% target in 2026 than feared, supporting the case for a steady hand on interest rates, Primoz Dolenc says https://t.co/wuXHfeNe8F ...

Australian unemployment jumped more than expected, and the economy added fewer jobs, signaling the labor market is loosening and adding to the case for the Reserve Bank to resume lowering interest rates as soon as next month https://t.co/ltcJDV0JB1 ...

Uh, Victoria, we we got the S&P 500. It's up modestly. We're still about a percent and a half below last week's record high after that wobble we had on Friday.Has anything in terms of the underpinnings of this rally. You know, a steady economy, Fed going to cut rates, the AI excitement. Is anything changed or have there been reasons you see to question those premises.>> Yeah, Mike, I don't think there's been a huge change in what we've seen. Now, we have had some of the momentum, that underlying momentum in ...

Group 1: Stellantis and Canadian Backlash - Stellantis N.V. is facing significant opposition from Canada due to its decision to shift Jeep Compass production from Brampton, Ontario, to Illinois, threatening approximately 3,000 jobs [2][6] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that the production move is a "direct consequence" of existing U.S. tariffs, impacting the auto sector until a new North American trade agreement is reached [2][6] - Ontario Premier Doug Ford expressed disappointment and confirmed that no provincial funding would be allocated to Stellantis until assurances regarding the Brampton plant's future operations are provided [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran projects a "material decline" in services inflation in the coming quarters, primarily driven by easing housing costs [3][6] - Miran believes that two more interest rate cuts this year are "realistic" and emphasized the urgency of reaching a neutral interest rate quickly, estimating it at approximately 0.5% [3][6] - Miran dissented at the recent FOMC meeting, advocating for a larger 50 basis point rate cut instead of the adopted 25 basis point reduction [3] Group 3: Oracle and TikTok - A ByteDance executive acknowledged Oracle's "vital role" in TikTok's expansion, with Oracle leading a proposed deal to control approximately 80% of TikTok's U.S. business [4][6] - The arrangement aims to address U.S. national security concerns regarding potential Chinese government access to user data [4][6] - Under the proposed deal, Oracle would manage and safeguard U.S. user data under its existing "Project Texas" initiative [4] Group 4: Prologis Market Activity - Prologis Inc. CEO Hamid R. Moghadam announced discussions for nearly 30 million square feet of new deals, following a strong third quarter with record lease signings totaling 62 million square feet [5][6] - The company reported a period-end occupancy rate of 95.3% and is expanding its strategic focus into data centers [5] Group 5: Turkey's Rare Earth Element Development - Turkey is in advanced talks with the United States to jointly develop its substantial rare earth reserves in Beylikova, Eskişehir province, which are considered the world's second-largest after China's [8] - This strategic pivot towards the U.S. follows stalled negotiations with China and Russia over technology transfer demands [8] - Ankara is prioritizing local refining capacity and technology transfer in any new agreement [8] Group 6: Ukraine's Energy Needs - Ukraine is seeking U.S. gas supplies via Greece, with discussions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis [9] - Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz reported recent Russian attacks on its gas production infrastructure, necessitating a need for at least 13.2 billion cubic meters in gas storage for the upcoming winter [9] - Greece aims to replace Russian gas imports with American LNG and facilitate its onward transmission to Ukraine through the North-South corridor [9]

Market Overview - Stocks opened higher on Wednesday due to positive corporate earnings and expectations of lower interest rates [1] - The rally showed signs of fading in the late morning [1] Company Performance - Morgan Stanley shares increased nearly 7% following a strong earnings report that outperformed Goldman Sachs [1] - Wells Fargo also reported bullish results and reached a new high [1] - Tech giant Oracle's stock rose nearly 3% to $353.30 [1] Sector Performance - The utilities sector was the strongest performer at the start of the day, influenced by bond market conditions [2] Treasury Yields and Mortgage Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield was just above 4%, marking the lowest level of the year, briefly dropping to 3.998% [3] - Mortgage rates have been gradually decreasing, currently around 6.3% [3] Index Performance - The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.5% to 6,674 [4] - The Nasdaq Composite, which had earlier increased by over 200 points, was up 149 points to 22,670 [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 91 points, or 0.2%, at 46,356 [4] 52-Week Highs and Lows - Stocks reaching 52-week highs included Wal-Mart, Wells Fargo, Caterpillar, and Southern Co., with Southern shares peaking at $100.24 before falling back to $99.25, down 0.43% [4] - Progressive Corp. was notable for hitting a 52-week low, with shares down 7.9% at $221.36 due to quarterly earnings missing estimates related to issues in Florida [5]

The Argentine peso dropped and short-term local interest rates soared as the latest pledge of support by the US generated confusion among investors https://t.co/UkBohOuEAG ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced volatility in 2025, reacting to President Trump's tariffs in April but later rebounding and showing growth [1] - Investors are apprehensive about the stock market outlook for 2026, with experts identifying a mix of opportunities and risks [2] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - Interest rates have been a focal point, with reductions occurring in September, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicting two additional cuts this year, potentially influencing market activity into 2026 [3] - Rising unemployment may prompt the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy and further cut interest rates, which could support stock prices but also introduce risks of a market correction if growth is not stimulated [4] Inflation Concerns - Inflation has posed significant challenges for consumers, with the FOMC's rate cuts aimed at alleviating these pressures, though inflation may persist [5] - Predictions indicate that the inflation rate in 2026 will exceed that of the current year, potentially diminishing consumer purchasing power and impacting spending [6] Sector-Specific Insights - The ongoing high inflation, coupled with elevated tariff rates, could adversely affect consumer-driven sectors and hinder stock prices [6] - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector faces potential challenges, with concerns about a possible tech bubble and the sustainability of earnings in this space [7][8] - General caution is advised regarding equities due to stretched valuations in several sectors and the inconsistent earnings power of the AI narrative [8]