Fed Policy & Market Impact - The market reacts best when the Fed reacts appropriately to economic data, balancing economic risks with potential inflation acceleration from tariffs [5] - The market anticipates the Fed to cut rates, but the bond market's reaction could impact the Fed's decision [3][4] - There's uncertainty about whether the Fed will implement a strong 50 basis point cut due to the uncertain impact of tariffs [7] Economic Weakening - The economy is showing signs of weakening, including revisions to payrolls, weak construction spending, and corporate bankruptcies at a 10-year high in June [6] - Challenger layoff reports indicate economic concerns [6] Market Vulnerability & Risk Appetite - The market is vulnerable due to built-up froth and high risk appetite [7] - A Bank of America fund manager survey in July showed the fastest move up in three-month risk appetite since the early 2000s, reaching a five-month high [8] - Cash levels into July are low, suggesting built-in bullishness in a weakening economy expecting a Fed bailout [9] Investment Strategy - A more defensive posture is recommended, paying attention to valuation as highly valued stocks are being punished on slight misses [10][11] - Investors should look for less expensive stocks, selectively in defensive and cyclical sectors that could benefit from an economic recovery if the Fed stabilizes things [11][12]

So, for more on all this, let's bring in Jason Ferman. He's a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School and a former CEA chairman himself. Jason, it's terrific to see you on this Friday.Uh, you're you're a former Obama guy, so I think our audience is going to expect that you're going to throw rocks here at Myron. So, let's start with something other than rock throwing for a second. Uh, let's start with the, you know, the most positive thing you can think of about this Myron pick.>> Uh, I don't know if it's the ...

Joining us right now, former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. He's currently a partner at Solomare Capital and vice chairman at Teneo. And it's good to see you, sir.Morning. Uh I'm curious what you make of the dialogue here as it relates to both the tariff issue and the Fed issue. We have so many former Treasury Secretaries.Everybody's trying to figure out what's really going on. Everyone's a little worried about whether the numbers are even going to be real in the future. What do you think.Well, I think we' ...

President Trump reiterated his criticism of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said he was close to picking a new Fed chair, and teased new tariffs on semiconductors. Joining me now, Muhammad Alerian, president of Queens College of Cambridge to talk about that and many other things. Muhammad, good to see you.Good morning, Julie. I would like to start with this whole situation over the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS. Um, with President Trump's removal of the person who heads up that agency, what does that ...

What's your reaction to Governor Coogler's decision here and how concerned are you about who might replace him. I've just seen the headlines, so I am I am learning information real time, whether this was a personal choice or whether there was a feeling of a political pressure. And I'm almost, you know, hesitant to even even weigh in because I don't have the information.Anything, though, that I just as a as a overarching point, anything that makes this fed more political, that robs it of its independence is ...

CNBC’s Leslie Picker with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, join 'Money Movers' to discuss his branch strategy, the economy, his meetings with the president and Trump's comments about Fed Chair Powell. ...

I I think that having an independent central bank has been an institutional arrangement that has served the public well and as long as it serves the public well, it should continue and be respected. If it didn't serve the public well, then then it wouldn't be something that we should just automatically defend. But what it gives us and other central banks, what it gives you is the ability to make these these very challenging decisions that in ways that are focused on the data and the evolving outlook, the ba ...

Consumer & Economy - US consumer is holding in pretty well, supported by bank earnings, and consumer health is crucial as it represents approximately 69% of the economy [1][2] - Executive sentiment regarding future prospects is more important than backward-looking data, as it will drive corporate activity in the next 6 months and impact the broader macro view [3][4] Market Sentiment & Valuation - Market exhibits bullishness, especially among retail investors, indicated by the resurgence of meme stocks, crypto, and SPACs, requiring close monitoring [5] - Current valuations appear stretched relative to historical data, but valuations are more useful on a 5 to 10-year horizon [4][5] US-China Trade - US relies on China for rare earth minerals, potentially for another decade before achieving self-sufficiency [6] - China needs US chips, and US needs its chip and AI companies to thrive for wealth creation, suggesting a need for compromise between both countries [7] Fed Independence & Monetary Policy - Reduction of Fed independence could lead to a weaker currency, higher inflation, and higher long-term yields, as seen in other countries [10][11] - The market is closely watching potential dissents within the Fed, as two governors dissenting is not common and could impact rate volatility [13] - There is disagreement on whether the economy needs a rate cut, with some arguing that the stock market's all-time high suggests rates are not overly restrictive [15] Inflation & Tariffs - There is a risk of higher inflation in the second half of the year, potentially jeopardizing expectations of two Fed rate cuts by January [19] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is uncertain, with a possibility of increased tariff impact due to wound-down inventories and stricter government regulations on transshipments [17][18] AI & Productivity - The Fed's ability to model the productivity gains from AI over the next 18 to 24 months is questionable, making it difficult to set appropriate Fed funds rate [16] - Setting monetary policy based on uncertain AI productivity gains is considered nonsensical [17]

All right, why don't we start off just with that that news from yesterday and the video that's a lot of people think it's kind of weird, maybe even cringey. The president and J Pal together kind of, you know, bickering a bit in public, but the president saying he's not looking to fire J Pal. Does that just take away some from some of that, you know, quote unquote wall of worry about Fed independence.>> Yeah, I think so. I think a lot of this is just simply noise. And I think we should just focus on fundamen ...

What would happen if Trump decided to fire the Fed chair Jerome Powell. Yesterday's media circus really ignited a lot of questions on just the technicalities of removing the current Fed chair. One of the big questions would be whether Jerome Powell would actually take the dismissal serious or would he try to show up to work the next day only to find Trump preventing him from entering the office.If he does decide to stay at home, who takes his place. Would it be vice chair uh Jefferson stepping in or would w ...