Core Viewpoint - Sales of previously owned U.S. homes decreased slightly in August due to affordability challenges for buyers, despite a recent decline in mortgage borrowing costs [1][2]. Sales Performance - Home sales fell by 0.2% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units, down from 4.01 million in July, while year-over-year sales increased by 1.8% [2]. - The sales pace over the last two years has averaged around 4 million units per month, which is weaker than the rates observed during the 2007-2009 recession [3]. Mortgage Rates and Inventory - The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage recently decreased to 6.26%, the lowest since last fall, but remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels [4]. - Total inventory of homes for sale declined by 1.3% to 1.53 million units, with the current sales pace indicating that this inventory would last 4.6 months [6]. Regional Sales Trends - Sales trends varied by region, with increases in the Midwest and West, while the Northeast and South experienced declines. The Midwest's performance is attributed to better affordability [5]. Pricing Trends - The median sales price of homes rose by 2.0% year-over-year to $422,600, marking the 26th consecutive year-over-year increase, and prices in August were 52% higher than in August 2019 [5]. Buyer Composition - The share of all-cash transactions decreased to 28% from 31% in July, while investors accounted for 21% of all transactions, up from 20% the previous month. First-time buyers represented 28% of sales, unchanged from the previous month but up from 26% a year ago [6].

Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes remained sluggish in August, even as a late-summer slide in mortgage rates brought home loan borrowing costs to a 10-month low. Existing home sales slipped 0.2% last month from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million units, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That’s the slowest sales pace since June. Sales rose 1.8% compared with August last year. The latest sales figure topped the 3.96 million pace economists were expecting, accordin ...

Modestly lower mortgage rates could result in a stronger showing this fall, however. ...

Your next guest has a great look into the real estate market, particularly in Texas. This company owns several commercial real estate buildings in Austin. They're developing around Dallas, also in Arizona.Joining us on set is Rastagar Capital CEO Ari Rastagar. Ari, great to have you on the program. >> Thanks for having me, bro.>> Okay, so you went from son of immigrants, zero money to building what may be the tallest building in Dallas. Before we get into the specifics, tell us how you did that because a lo ...

Group 1: Housing Market Overview - New home sales in August increased by over 20% month-over-month, indicating strong demand and a potential turning point for the housing market [1] - Mortgage rates below 6.64% and down to 6% have historically led to improved housing data, with recent purchase application data showing the best performance in eight weeks [2] - The stability of mortgage rates around 6% is crucial for the growth of housing permits and starts, as fluctuations above 7% have historically dampened demand [3][4] Group 2: Builder Dynamics - Publicly traded builders are managing to maintain gross margins despite challenges, while smaller builders face greater risks due to recent job losses in residential construction [7] - Builders are currently focused on selling completed units, which are at historically low levels, prompting a pullback in construction activity [9][10] - The efficiency of builders in selling products contrasts with the existing home sales market, which involves more complex negotiations between sellers and buyers [9] Group 3: Labor Market Implications - The recent surge in single-family home sales occurs amidst a backdrop of job losses in manufacturing and residential construction, raising concerns about the labor market [11][12] - The ability to grow housing permits is essential for stabilizing the labor market related to single-family homes, emphasizing the importance of duration in housing data [12][13] - The current low mortgage rates are attributed to a softer labor market, highlighting the interconnectedness of these economic factors [13]

New home sales for the month of August coming in stronger than expected, climbing more than 20% month overmonth with mortgage rates coming down and demand clearly strong. So is this the turning point for the housing market. Joining us now, housing wire lead analyst Logan Moasami.Uh Logan, thank you for being here. Um so what do you think. Is this the kind of the unlock that we have been waiting for.You know, whenever mortgage rates head below 6.64% and down to 6%, housing data tends to improve, right. New h ...

Everyone knows that home affordability is a massive problem in the United States. Now, of course, people always focus on what some of the drivers of the problem are. We don't have enough regulation at the local level that empowers builders to build more supply. You don't have enough supply, home prices end up being unaffordable.Also, the cost of capital is too high. Mortgage rates are through the roof. And so, if people can't afford the mortgage payment, obviously, homes become unaffordable as well.But one ...

Some breaking economic data coming in much better than expected. New home sales rise 800,000 an annual rate the estimate had been for 650,000. That also means that the sales percentage change month over month is 20.5%.The expectation had actually been a decline of.3%. So it is a stronger number but not a roaring market. It does underscore the fact that mortgages Matt have come in.The mortgage rate looks to be around the lowest since the start of the year, but we've had a Fed that's cut 125 basis points over ...

All right, let's start off with your thesis here, Bill. You're saying that the weakness in the housing market, that's a sign that the Fed needs to cut rates even more than it has already. So, I don't want to put this in context, though.The Fed's cut rates by about 75 basis points over the last year and mortgage rates are up about 15 basis points. So, how is that going to help when the housing market seems to be really guided by some other factors. >> Well, the housing market is is one where it's very sensit ...

Core Insights - Lennar Corporation has experienced a stock decline of approximately 25% over the past year due to affordability challenges, elevated mortgage rates, and decreasing margins affecting investor confidence [2] - The recent quarterly earnings fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the housing outlook [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 FY2025, Lennar reported revenues of $8.81 billion, a decline of roughly 6% year-over-year, which was below analyst predictions [3] - Net earnings dropped nearly 46% to $2.29 per diluted share, compared to $4.26 from the previous year, with adjusted EPS closer to $2.00 [3] Housing Market Dynamics - The average selling price for Lennar homes decreased to approximately $383,000, down from over $400,000 last year, as the company relied on incentives like mortgage-rate buydowns [4] - New orders increased by about 12% to 23,000 homes, but profit margins were adversely affected, with gross margin on home sales falling to 17.5%, down from over 22% the year prior [4] - Deliveries of 21,584 homes fell short of expectations of around 22,400, with a backlog of $6.6 billion indicating weaker visibility [5] Mortgage Rate Impact - High mortgage rates continue to be a pressing issue, pricing out many first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade, leading to price reductions and substantial incentives [6] - The uneven recovery in the housing market shows strong demand for entry-level homes, while luxury and move-up buyers are more cautious, complicating Lennar's position [7] Valuation and Investment Considerations - Lennar's stock is trading at a P/E ratio near 11x and a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 1x, significantly lower than high-growth technology stocks [8] - Operating margins are in the high teens, but recent decreases indicate fragility, with positive free cash flow supported by a robust balance sheet [8] - Fundamental pressures are evident, with decreased revenues and gross margins considerably lower than historical averages, raising sustainability concerns if high mortgage rates persist into 2026 [9] Historical Performance - Historical data indicates that Lennar has rebounded significantly slower than the S&P 500 during major downturns over the past two decades, suggesting that the recent selloff may not represent a buying opportunity [10]