International Markets - US stocks still have a home bias, but international markets offer catalysts beyond just a weaker dollar [1] - Europe benefits from lower rates and fiscal stimulus, China from AI, and Japan from corporate reform [2] - Emerging markets, including Korea, Taiwan, and Latin America, benefit from the resurgence in hardware within tech and the reorganization of global trade [2][3] - International opportunities are not all dependent on each other, providing diversification [3] US Market & Fiscal Policy - The market has largely priced in the "big beautiful bill," with short-term positive impacts on equity markets due to growth boosts [4][5] - The long-term impact of the bill includes a potentially ever-expanding deficit, estimated to be in the trillions, which could create a floor on yields [5][6] - The market seems to have gotten comfortable with tariffs around 14% or 15%, after a previous range of 2% to 25% [8] Market Resilience & Outlook - The market has shown resilience to geopolitical risks, the reconciliation bill, and recession risks [9][10] - The path of least resistance for the market is higher, given its resilience to various downside risks [10] - The market could become more rangebound in the second half of the year due to higher valuations [12][13] - Diversified portfolios are up 6% to 7% in the first half of the year [14] Bond Market & Yields - Resistance has been met around 45% on the 10-year Treasury yield [15] - Yields could drift lower throughout the year, potentially providing opportunities for investors [16] - Even if yields remain stable, the income cushion will generate a decent return further out on the curve [16]

Singapore government bonds are trouncing developed-market peers, and the rally may have legs as ample liquidity and limited supply continue to weigh on yields https://t.co/XwInIVVmd5 ...

Market Sentiment & Geopolitics - The market is currently overlooking geopolitical risks, inflation, and potential trade wars [12] - Market participants believe current uncertainty levels are manageable [5] - Closing the straits would be a significant market-moving event impacting crude oil and the S&P [2] Oil Price & Inflation - Oil prices are crucial for managing inflation and potentially enabling interest rate cuts [4] - A jump in Brent or WTI crude oil prices impacting consumer spending could negatively affect the market [3] - Crude oil being down 6% was unexpected given recent events [1] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - The Fed's actions are currently more influential than other factors [7][8] - The market anticipates the Fed stepping in and potentially moving towards rate cuts, benefiting sectors that would gain from such a move [8][9] - Some voices suggest rate cuts may come sooner and be more frequent than previously anticipated [12] - The Fed seems comfortable with PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) at 31%, until the labor market weakens [7] - There's a possibility of yields approaching 5% due to ongoing concerns, even if the market is currently disregarding them [14]

Investment Opportunities & Market Analysis - The bond market presents potential opportunities due to higher yields and the possibility of lower interest rates [1] - Fidelity discusses the Middle East conflict and the Federal Reserve June Meeting FOMC [1] - The report highlights reasons to buy bonds and where they fit in a portfolio [1] - The analysis includes a discussion of bonds and cash [1] - The report considers potential bond opportunities and provides a look ahead [1] Bond Funds & ETFs - The report covers bond ETFs, active vs passive bond funds, and building a bond fund [1] Resources & Engagement - Fidelity provides a link for fixed income, bonds and CDs research: wwwfidelitycom/bondsearch [1] - Fidelity encourages questions and engagement in the comments section [1] - Fidelity promotes various social media channels including YouTube, Reddit, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, LinkedIn, Discord, and X (formerly Twitter) [1]

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