Interest Rate Analysis - Models suggest a "neutral" interest rate would be approximately 1.5 percentage points lower [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Bessent isn't predicting a series of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1]

Market Expectations & Rate Cut Probabilities - Market participants initially interpreted the inflation data as a signal for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, with some pricing in near certainty and even anticipating up to four rate cuts for the remainder of the year [2][3] - The market's reaction suggests a belief that the Fed can now focus on the labor market and cut rates without excessive concern about inflation, leading to small caps outperforming due to their interest rate sensitivity [6] - There's a perception that the Fed has some leeway to cut rates, especially given the labor market conditions, and that a rate-cutting cycle, if significant, would be very beneficial for the market [8][9] Inflation Data Analysis - The headline inflation number initially excited the market, but a closer look revealed it might be "a little hotter than expected," reinforcing the idea that inflation remains a problem [2] - Core inflation was noted as being the highest since the start of the year, indicating that the inflation data wasn't entirely positive and had some underlying heat [4][5] - The inflation data showed some signs of giving ground, which, combined with potential cracks in the labor market, could provide the Fed with justification to cut rates [5] Bond Market Reaction - The ten-year Treasury yield initially pulled back on the report but then bounced higher, finishing the day almost unchanged, indicating uncertainty or mixed signals in the bond market's interpretation of the data [4] Economic Indicators & Market Valuation - Concerns are raised about applauding the stock market's performance given a GDP growth of 125% (it seems there is a typo here, it should be 125 basis points or 125%) and unemployment growth of 270% (it seems there is a typo here, it should be 270 basis points or 270%), with the Fed funds rate at 45% (it seems there is a typo here, it should be 450 basis points or 450%) [10] - The stock market is trading at all-time highs, with valuations around 225% to 240% (it seems there is a typo here, it should be 225x to 24x) times forward earnings, suggesting potential overvaluation [11] - The market's behavior is considered odd, suggesting that the economy might be starting to flex, and market participants are chasing that momentum [12]

Monetary Policy - Treasury Secretary suggests the Fed should consider a larger, 50 basis-point (0.5%) cut in the benchmark interest rate next month [1]

Interest Rate Policy - Bank of England cuts key interest rate to 4% [1] - Market anticipates the FED will follow suit with similar rate cuts [1] Market Outlook - Potential impact on Bitcoin as suggested by Bitcoin Magazine [1]

Monetary Policy - Colombia's central bank unexpectedly held its key interest rate steady for the second consecutive meeting [1]

Monetary Policy - Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate steady [1] Inflation Outlook - Bank of Japan raised its inflation outlook [1] Economic Impact - Assessing the impact of Trump's tariffs [1]

Thank you. Colobby Smith with the uh New York Times. Um two of your colleagues called for a quarter point cut today and I'm wondering what aspects of their argument were most compelling to you and how you're weighing their views against those um on the committee who as of the June forecast uh were in the camp of the Fed holding interest rate study uh for the remainder of the year.Um and and just in terms of the the June SEP in particular, is that still the best representation of where the core of the commit ...

The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady, defying demands from President Donald Trump to slash borrowing costs.Full article here: https://t.co/8veog3QdON https://t.co/FEF1BzT5Sn ...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers remarks following the Fed's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors will parse Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the press conference for insights into the path of monetary policy. President Trump has tried to pressure the central bank leader to bringing down borrowing costs. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/42d859g » Subscribe to CNBC TV: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCtelevision » Subscribe to CNBC: h ...

🇺🇲 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SAID FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL MUST LOWER RATE NOW. https://t.co/X5lN2AxhMr ...