One year ago today, one year ago today, we bought the stock of Home Depot for the travel trust. We were looking for a rate cut at September Fed, meaning historically a terrific boost to the stock of this tremendous chain. Oh, we got that rate cut, but it didn't do what it was supposed to.Longerterm Treasury yield spiked in response, sending mortgage rates higher and starting a huge descent for the stock of Home Depot. But did we sell. No, we did the opposite and we told you to do so, too. We bought more and ...

All right, let's get right into it. Jeeoff, your word of the day today is motion. What's in motion.We saw bond yields move to the downside. Is that the motion you're talking about. >> A lot in motion indeed, Frank.But the motion I'm talking about is the magnificent motion. Look at the magnificent motion. In just the last month, we have seen Google up over 21% while the high-flying backbone of this rally because remember Frank, it's so appropriate.This is the 100th day since those April lows. And if you reme ...

Bitcoin is pumping hard as the September rate cut is almost confirmed 🚀 https://t.co/y2wRElckuv ...

Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Partners Group believes a rate cut in September is highly likely, potentially exceeding market expectations of 85-87% due to labor market weakness [3][4] - Encouraging PCE data, particularly stable services inflation around 25% year-over-year, supports the likelihood of a September rate cut [6] - A rate cut could cushion the labor market and support consumer spending [14] AI Investment and Growth - While growth rates of AI beneficiaries like Nvidia may be slowing from over 200% year-over-year, hyperscaler capex is projected to be $400 billion next year, driving stock performance [8][9] - The total addressable market growth in AI will materialize through investments in data centers, connectivity, cooling, and related services [10] - Business application software is expected to outpace semiconductor growth within the AI sector, indicating a broadening of the AI trade [12] Broadening Market Opportunities - The broadening of the AI trade extends beyond semiconductors, with opportunities in business application software, including those in private markets [12][13] - Private equity middle market growth companies are seen as having significant potential, with earnings growth and margins exceeding those in public markets [15]

ETF Market Overview - ETF net inflows are topping $789 billion year-to-date, on pace for another trillion-dollar year [2] - ETFs are becoming the structure of choice due to liquidity, transparency, accessibility, and tax efficiency [3] - Investors are attracted to the ability to trade ETFs daily [3] Investment Strategies & Active Management - Active management is considered a valuable approach, especially for stocks with high multiples, to identify companies expected to perform well [6][8] - JP Morgan spends $1 billion on research analysts and technology, emphasizing the importance of active management [7] - Diversification is important, including both equities and fixed income [12] JP Morgan's ETF Products - JPM's largest actively managed ETF, Jepi (JPI), has approximately $41 billion in assets and provides income through an option overlay strategy [9] - Jepi's underlying portfolio has lower volatility than the S&P 500, around 60% of it [10] - Jeep Q is another large actively managed ETF with approximately $28-29 billion in assets, benchmarked against the NASDAQ, providing approximately 11-12% income [11] - JBond (JBND), an intermediate core bond fund, has seen about $2 billion in inflows this year and is an investment-grade portfolio [14] - JPST is another investment-grade portfolio option for diversifying from equities to fixed income [15] - JGrow (JGRO), a large-cap growth ETF, is considered a good way to play the current environment where a few names are driving performance [17] Market Factors & Fed Policy - The market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts, with forward markets indicating cuts between 100 and 125 basis points over the next 12 months [13] - With potential rate cuts, investors may move from money market funds (currently at $7 trillion) into assets with longer duration to maintain yield [14]

all-time high for the S&P 500 as markets keep going up. The index crossing 6,500 for the first time ever. The move's all coming as Nvidia did not scare investors off with its earnings and guidance.The AI trade, in other words, keeps going. Yes, Nvidia did fall a tiny little bit today, but CEO Jensen Wong making bullish comments about the future of its business in China. So with the most important report of earning season out of the way, Jerome Pal making people believe that a rate cut is just around the cor ...

Market Reaction to Fed Policies - The market initially reacted to news regarding the Federal Reserve with slight rate increases and dollar softness, but these movements reversed quickly, indicating a strong focus on potential Fed rate cuts [2][3] - The market is closely watching for signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts, particularly focusing on upcoming jobs and inflation data to guide the Fed's direction [5][6] - The bond market presents opportunities for various perspectives: the front end of the curve suggests rate cuts, while the back end reflects concerns about longer-term implications [7] Treasury Supply and Yields - Increased supply of treasuries, coupled with a potentially dovish Fed policy amid uncomfortable inflation levels (above the Fed's target), could lead the bond market to penalize Treasury issuance [9] - While the Treasury Secretary aims to lower the 10-year yield, market forces beyond their control are influencing it [9] - The Federal Reserve could attempt to control the back end of the curve through yield curve control and quantitative easing, but this may not be a great policy when market forces go in the opposite direction [10] Global Bond Market and Diversification - While the UK offers attractive yields, the rest of the world is converging towards the US, and the UK has its own fiscal issues [12][13] - Double Line has started to invest in local currency emerging market bonds, which offer yields around 7% without currency hedging, but with associated risks [14][16] - Developed world interest rates have been highly correlated, with Japan being the primary exception due to its reluctance to hike rates [18][19] BOJ and Global Sovereign Debt - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is known for unpredictable policies and a lack of forward guidance, making Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) less appealing [21] - High global sovereign debt levels and uncontrolled inflation suggest that rates, particularly at the back end, should be at or above current levels [22]

I mean, if you are a voting member of the Fed and you have to decide about interest rates, as you always do, what incredible pressure this must bring to sort of if you decide we need to cut rates to prove the point, right. Show your work that this was done because of data rather than done because of pressure. >> Yeah.Well, nice to be with you, Courtney. I I think Chairman Powell has absolutely opened the door to uh a rate cut in in midepptember. So in some ways the timing of this is beneficial that it comes ...

Federal Reserve Independence & Policy - The market's calmness is partly attributed to ambiguity surrounding the President's power to fire a Federal Reserve governor and the definition of "for cause" [5] - The core concern for markets is a potential rupture in Fed independence, which could impact decision-making within the central bank [12] - Questioning the Fed's independence could hinder its ability to make decisions aligned with its legislative mandate [13] - An independent Fed is crucial for a well-performing bond market and economy, requiring respect and protection [14] Potential Rate Cuts & Economic Outlook - The Fed chair indicated openness to a potential rate cut in September, but several factors warrant caution, including inflation running above target and upcoming tariffs [16] - The possibility of a rate cut is viewed as roughly 50/50, and there's no strong support for a campaign of rate cuts [18] - Political pressure leading to a rate-cutting campaign to meet the President's requests would be detrimental to the economy, bond markets, and the Fed's credibility [19] Legal & Political Considerations - The legality of the President's actions and whether the alleged cause is sufficient for dismissal will likely be determined by the courts [2][4][10] - If the court ratifies the move, it would significantly impact Fed independence and trust in the institution as inflation fighters [19] - Accommodating political pressure for continuous rate cuts could shake the Fed's credibility, weaken the dollar, and impair the ability to finance US debt [21]

And Danielle, we're just hearing now, according to The Washington Post, Lisa Cook says she will not resign. She disputes President Trump's authority to fire her. She also says that no cause exists for the President to fire her either.This is according to reporting from The Washington Post. So Lisa Cook refusing to step down and disputing the President's authority to force her out. Polka, I do want to return to you now for some more thoughts on this.I mean, what's the more urgent concern for the Fed at the m ...