Former Fed President James Bullard calls for 1% rate cut this year, with potential further cuts in 2026 https://t.co/RyBUVw6XbO ...

Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday for signals on the prospect of a September rate cut https://t.co/kYGsaSWp63 ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - President Trump calls for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook amidst mortgage fraud allegations [1][2] - The potential firing of Lisa Cook is seen as part of Trump's broader effort to influence the Fed and push for lower interest rates [4][10] - The market is currently pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year, but concerns about inflation persist [14] - The Fed faces a difficult situation with conflicting signals from employment and inflation data [16] - The CME Group's Fed watch tool indicates around 80% probability of a September rate cut [12] Allegations Against Lisa Cook - Lisa Cook is accused of listing two different residences as her primary residence on mortgage applications [3][6] - The head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has referred the allegations to the Justice Department [2][3] - It is noted that there may be circumstances where listing two primary residences is permissible, such as co-signing for a dependent [3][7] Market Expectations & Fed's Stance - The market anticipates Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slightly open the door to a rate cut in September [13] - Recent weak jobs numbers and downward revisions to hiring in May and June could tilt the scales towards a rate cut [14] - The minutes from the recent FOMC meeting revealed that most Fed members remain focused on inflation [11][13] - Only two out of twelve Fed members indicated that the risks of lower employment outweigh those of inflation [12]

Market Outlook & Strategy - Barclays maintains a contrarian view, anticipating the Fed will not cut rates in September [1] - A hawkish tone from Jackson Hole could negatively impact small caps (especially value segment), home builders, parts of retail, and financials [2][3] - Caution is advised in small caps, requiring selectivity at the index level [4] - Financials are viewed positively due to strong earnings, good revisions, and potential benefits from increased corporate and capital markets activity [4] - Big tech is considered a safer space with high earnings quality and growth, especially if valuations pull back; previously trading around 29 times forward earnings, now approximately 28 times [5][6] - Broadening of market gains beyond big tech is uncertain, as results outside of financials and big tech are mixed [7][8] Earnings Analysis - Aggregate Q2 earnings look strong with over 10% growth and sales growth close to 6%, indicating positive operating leverage [9] - However, positive results are concentrated in financials and big tech; most other sectors are struggling with negative operating leverage [9] - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be seen, potentially affecting future earnings [9]

Fed Policy & Market Expectations - CNBC's Fed survey indicates respondents anticipate two rate cuts, totaling 50 basis points, with 25 basis points expected in September and another 25 in December [6] - The market is pricing in an 84% probability of a rate cut, leaving a 16% probability of no cut [9] - A majority (70%) of respondents believe Powell's speech at Jackson Hole will be neutral [3][4] - The market may be disappointed if Powell's speech is neutral or doesn't address policy at all [7][8] Inflation Outlook - Despite expectations of rate cuts, inflation is projected to remain around 3% this year and next, exceeding the Fed's target by 1 percentage point [6] - 63% of respondents believe substantial price increases are on the way due to tariffs [3] Potential Fed Chair Replacement - The survey suggests Kevin Hasset is the most likely candidate to replace Fed Chair Powell, according to respondents, but they believe former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh would be a better choice [2][3][4] - Among named candidates, Hasset is the frontrunner, followed by Fed Governor Chris Waller, Kevin Warsh, and former St Louis Fed President James Bullard [3] - 41% of respondents believe the next Fed chair will conduct policy independently of the president, while 37% think it will be in coordination [4]

Steve Leeman kicking off our 3-day coverage of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium with a very special edition of the CNBC Fed Survey. And boy, you got a beautiful shot there this morning, Steve. Yeah, and we just had some live elk there.Did you see that. Uh the Fed meets in Jackson Hole this year, uh Andrew, amid unprecedented presidential pressure for a rate cut, unsettled questions about the next Fed chair, and tariff inflation. Uh the CNBC Fed survey special Jackson Hole edition found respondents believ ...

All right. So, again, we we kind of hit this a couple times in the show. We've seen a change in momentum, a lot of anxiety about what J Pal is going to uh say coming up on Friday and how doubbish or hawkish he may be.What are your expectations. Do you think that he's going to signal a 25 point rate cut. Will he leave the door open for a 50point rate cut that it seems the market really wants. >> I doubt that he'll leave the door open for a 50 basis rate point cut.Um it doesn't make sense given the basic unde ...

At Home Depot, it's up 3% today despite a slight miss on the top and bottom lines. It second straight quarter of missing estimates. Investors were encouraged by the company standing by its fullear guidance, expecting comparable sales to rise about 1%.CFO Richard McFale also told CNBC that comp sales in July were up 3.3% from the same quarter in 2024. It's the best monthly comp of the year. So, sticking with retail, Target is set to report earnings tomorrow before the bell.The stock is tracking for its third ...

me for the hour. Joe Terranova, Shannon Sarkozy, Jim Lebenthal and Steve Weiss. We will take you to the markets here, give you a picture again on what's happening.We're modestly in the red. Joe, you really do have a feel that this is going to be a wait and see, a wait. And here we need to hear what the Fed chair is going to say about the path forward for interest rates before.I think we're willing to place our bets in any large degree around this market from here. >> I think you're always trying to understa ...

that's probably what's behind the miss. >> Yeah. Makes a big difference there Diana thank you so much.It could be a big week for stocks with more earnings. And Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Let's bring in Keith Lerner Truist Wealth Co-Chief investment officer, to discuss.Let's start with Jackson Hole because some out there are saying that could be potentially bearish for stocks, especially if Fed Chair Powell indicates to the market something a bit more hawkish than they may like to see. What's ...