Uh, let's stick with housing. Our next guest says this week's rate cut will spike housing demand, particularly from first-time buyers, but warns that could also drive prices back up. Joining us now is Noble Black, real estate broker at Cork Noble.Great to have you with us. >> Thanks for having me. >> Um, are you expecting rates to resume a downward sort of trajectory even though we saw a spike right after the Fed meeting.>> Who knows, right. I mean, I I think we're certainly not going to see them fall drama ...

We got the first Fed rate cuts in almost a year. Thanks, Powell. December 2024 was the last time they did it. They cut it on the 25 basis points.So, it was pretty much as prediction markets predicted. Want to look at the the Fed fund rates over the a 10-year time horizon even longer. So, we've been up in the five range all the way from 2023 and then it sort of started to drop in the end of 2024 and then we've been hovering at this uh 4.25% range and now we're down another 25 basis points.So, it's not the 50 ...

We got the first fed rate cuts in almost a year.December 2024 was the last time they did it.Not the 50 bps some wanted.But pretty much what prediction markets expected. https://t.co/k5zbcyuG6w ...

And he joins us now first on CNBC, newly confirmed Fed Governor Steven Myron. Our Steve Leeman, of course, also with us. It's great to see you, Mr.. Governor. First of all, congratulations on the confirmation and getting inside the Fed. Thank you and thanks for having me back.It's great to see you. Well, I I'm glad that you're here because I think a lot of people want to know why you desented first of all for 50 basis point cut when the rest of the committee voted on quarter point. Yeah, of course.Look, you ...

The Fed just kicked off its first rate cut of the year, a quarter point, and hinted at two more rate cuts to come in 2025. That would bring rates down to between 3.5% to 3.75% by year end. The dot plot, which maps out where policy makers expect interest rates to head in the future, show that nearly all FOMC officials anticipated some sort of easing with just one official seeing no change.Most expect three rate cuts, some forecast two, and one even anticipate six cuts. So, lots of dispersion among the commit ...

US equities extended this week’s advance on Friday, building on an everything rally that saw four major US stock benchmarks post records in unison for the first time since 2021 after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates https://t.co/k4z4X0gNZ8 ...

Market Valuation & Risk - Market valuations are stretched, with the S&P 500 trading at high multiples, indicating investors are paying a premium to enter the market [2] - The S&P 500 index has become top-heavy, heavily influenced by a handful of companies, posing a risk if one of these companies falters [2] Small Cap Opportunities - Equal-weight S&P and small caps are showing signs of outperforming cap-weighted indexes, with the Russell 2000 rallying 9% in August and experiencing its seventh straight weekly gain, the longest rally in 5 years [3] - Small caps have been left behind for years and were significantly impacted during COVID, but lower rates can improve their bottom line due to their higher floating rate debt [5] - Small caps are trading at a discount to large caps, making them attractive as money rotates into new leadership, with falling rates creating a setup for a catch-up trade [6] - IGR, the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF, focuses on profitable companies in the small-cap space [7] Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy - Asset allocation is key, and investments should be tied to the client's overall risk profile [8] - Clients should consider extending their duration to capture higher yields and potential principal appreciation [9] - Over 6 trillion USD is sitting in money market funds, with over 1 trillion USD entering in the past year alone, and as rates come down, investors need to consider where to shift this risk-free yield [9] - Money market funds are at 15% relative to the S&P 500, which is historically about 20% [11]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari anticipates two more rate cuts from the central bank this year [1] - The Fed is concerned about potential erosion of belief in its commitment to the 2% inflation target [2] - Kashkari expresses confidence in bringing inflation back down to 2%, despite current elevated levels [4] - Tariffs have pushed inflation up, requiring policy adjustments to maintain a strong labor market [5] - Housing services inflation is steadily decreasing, and non-housing services inflation is slowly decreasing, tied to wage growth [6][7] - Core goods inflation, previously negative, has increased due to tariffs, with the impact expected to play out over a couple of years [7][8] Fed Independence & Market Signals - Widespread appreciation exists for Fed independence in maintaining low inflation expectations and defending the dollar [10] - Financial markets appear exuberant despite labor market slowdown signals, indicating policy may not be tight [17] - Labor market data shows signs of weakening, influencing the decision to cut rates, but the number of further cuts needed to reach neutral is uncertain [18][19] Interest Rates & Economic Impact - The neutral rate of interest may have increased, potentially limiting the impact of short-term policy moves on mortgage rates [14][15] - Despite concerns about national debt at $38 trillion, the 10-year yield at 41% is viewed positively [17]

In a new essay, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Qashqari says he sees two more rate cuts coming from the central bank this year. Steve Leeman joins uh us now with Mr. . Qashqari.Hey, Steve. And hey, Neil. >> Good morning.>> Thank you, Joe. Let's bring in Mr. . Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed.Neil, let's talk about your um essay this morning, which is fascinating. And I just want to ask you uh first about one of the things that you say in your piece, which is that you're concerned that there could ...

Not many people get to experience what you've just experienced. Sitting down for a conversation to potentially become the Fed chair. Can you walk us through what that was like.What's the process like. Well, as you say, they have a lot of a lot of people on the list and they're following through. It's a transparent process.I think that's good. I think all I know, virtually all the people on the list, I think they're all good. So I think this was this was a meeting just to talk in broad terms, but I can't rea ...