Market Overview - The S&P and Nasdaq are near all-time highs, with the Dow also close to its peak, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is poised for an upside breakout [1] - Major indexes have surged by double digits since early April, with the Dow up 22.7%, S&P up 33.8%, Nasdaq up 46.9%, and Russell 2000 up 32.7% [2] - Despite significant gains, most major indexes are only up single digits for the year, indicating potential for further growth [2] Historical Context - The S&P 500 experienced a 23.3% increase last year, marking the second consecutive year of over 20% gains, a rare occurrence [4] - The last time the S&P had two consecutive years of 20%+ gains was in 1995-1996, which preceded a five-year rally with a total increase of 220% [8] Current Economic Indicators - Inflation has been moderate, with core inflation at 3.1% year-over-year, down from 3.3% [14] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is at 3.7% year-over-year, showing slight improvement [15] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, with a high likelihood of a September cut at 92.6% [16][15] Earnings Outlook - S&P earnings are projected to grow, with Q1'25 earnings up 12.2%, Q2 at 12.0%, Q3 at 4.8%, Q4 at 6.3%, and Q1'26 at 8.5% [18] - Despite previous market fears, aggregate earnings estimates remain strong, reinforcing the notion that earnings drive stock prices [19] Small-Cap Market Dynamics - The small-cap sector is experiencing a rally, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts and favorable tax provisions from a recently passed budget bill [20][22] - Small-caps typically have higher debt levels and will benefit significantly from lower interest rates, enhancing their growth potential [21] Technology Sector Insights - The current market is witnessing a tech boom, particularly driven by advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), which is expected to be transformative across various industries [10][11] - The AI boom is supported by real earnings and growth potential, contributing to a positive market outlook [11] Investment Strategies - Proven stock-picking strategies, such as focusing on Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy stocks, have historically outperformed the market [24] - Stocks making new highs tend to continue rising, with an average annual return of 37.6% compared to the S&P's 7.7% over the past 25 years [30] - Small-cap growth stocks have also shown significant outperformance, with an average annual return of 44.3% [31]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The speaker initially anticipated rate cuts over the year, projecting inflation heading towards 2% with full employment, aligning with the FOMC's mandate [1] - Increased uncertainty and "dirt in the air," largely attributed to tariffs, have complicated the outlook [2] - The central bank is grappling with the possibility of a persistent inflation shock or stagflation, a scenario lacking a clear playbook [3] - The key question is whether the stagflationary shocks are temporary or ongoing due to new policy administrations [4] Economic Uncertainty - Tariffs are not a one-time price increase, unlike the initial theory suggested [2] - Determining a return to the pre-April 2nd path hinges on resolving the uncertainty surrounding stagflationary shocks and policy changes [4]

Earnings and Economic Outlook - Second quarter earnings are on pace for 10% year-on-year growth, with double-digit growth likely by year-end [2] - Expectation of softening in the economy in the second half of the year, but not recessionary [2] - Anticipation of lower interest rates by the Federal Reserve in 2026, coupled with a potential tax bill kicking in next year, supporting continued earnings growth [2] Federal Reserve Policy - Market overreacted to the possibility of three rate cuts this year; one to two cuts are more likely [3] - Cooling labor market data, with revisions substantially lower for the past two months, supports the potential for the Fed to move rates towards a neutral level of around 35% [4][5] - Expectation that Jerome Powell will signal a potential rate cut and indicate that a 50 basis point rate cut is unlikely [6] Investment Strategy and Technology - Tech and AI sectors have exceeded expectations in terms of capex, data center spending, revenue, and earnings [9] - Investors should have exposure to the long-term secular story in AI and technology [10] - Expectation that sectors benefiting from productivity gains, such as healthcare, industrials, and financial services, will participate in the AI and technology growth [10] - AI and technology are expected to help reduce inflationary pressures by making costs more effective [12] - Margin expansion is anticipated in 2026, partly driven by the AI story [13] - Technology will be used to supplement labor, a trend expected to start next year and continue in the years ahead [15]

Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose significantly, with year-over-year prices increasing by 3.3%, up from 2.4%, and a monthly increase of 0.9% [3] - The Import Price Index increased by 0.4%, surpassing the forecast of 0.1%, indicating potential cost impacts from tariffs on U.S. consumers [4][5] Market Reactions - Equity markets initially sold off following the inflation data, but expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting remain high at over 92% [3] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat, while small-cap stocks fell by 1.3% [2] Corporate Developments - Berkshire Hathaway invested heavily in UnitedHealth Group, purchasing over five million shares valued at $1.6 billion, while also trimming its holdings in Apple by selling twenty million shares [9] - Applied Materials reported earnings that exceeded expectations but lowered its guidance due to an uncertain outlook, particularly regarding China, leading to a projected 15% decline in its shares [9] Upcoming Events - Global economic policymakers will gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with discussions expected to cover interest rate policy among other topics [8]

Let's get some real expert analysis. Joining us now, Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby. Austin, thanks for joining us this morning.We have now Steve, how are you. >> We've now had three of the four inflation reports we get in this nation. The most important come the end of this month, uh, PCE, but we can kind of calculate that.>> Take a step back. We know you don't react to any single inflation report or any single report. Give us your picture right now or your sense right now, Austin, of the inflation st ...

💥BREAKING:FED OFFICIAL SAYS IF SIGNS EMERGE IN SEPTEMBER OR LATER THIS FALL THAT WE’RE NOT IN AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, RATES CAN BE CUT. https://t.co/dXAMd08InV ...

President Donald Trump narrowing his choices to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell to three or four names, saying he'll announce his nominee a little earlier than initially expected. Joining us now is the former economic adviser to President George W Bush, Mark Sumlin. Mark, of course, your name has been in the mix as well over the past week or so.Welcome to the program. Let's just start with the base case, the case for rate reductions. Mark, what do you think the strongest case there is right now.Right. I think ...

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - Interest rate hikes in 2022, following a leveraged buyout boom, created stress for companies across sectors [1] - A majority of firms did not correctly hedge rate risk [1]

When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, its favored inflation gauge tends to be coming down, or at least notably lower than where it may be when policymakers gather next month https://t.co/ePRyrOnPgL ...

Monetary Policy & International Relations - US Treasury Secretary isn't directly asking Japan to hike interest rates [1] - Japan's chief trade negotiator addressed comments made by US Treasury Secretary regarding BOJ's inflation response [1] - BOJ is described as being behind the curve in fighting inflation [1]