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中国经济高频观察(2025年4月第2周):房地产销售边际走弱
Ping An Securities· 2025-04-14 01:41
Economic Trends - Recent high-frequency data indicates a marginal weakening in China's economy, particularly in real estate sales and domestic demand for automobiles and express delivery services[2] - Steel and cement production have shown a recovery, while production rates for certain chemicals have fluctuated, reflecting a mixed industrial output[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 61 sample cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with a 16.1% drop since April, lower than March figures[2] - Second-hand home sales in 15 sample cities have decreased to a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with a 15.5% increase since April, also lower than March[2] - The second-hand home listing price index fell by 0.6% month-on-month in March[2] Investment and Construction - Funding availability for construction sites increased by 0.55 percentage points week-on-week, with non-residential construction rising by 0.38 percentage points, still below last year's levels[2] - Apparent demand for rebar and wire rod, as well as cement shipments, has improved week-on-week, although absolute levels remain weaker than last year[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of major home appliances have surged by 31.4% year-on-year, while automobile retail and express delivery growth rates have slowed[2] - Daily average retail of passenger vehicles increased by 2% year-on-year from April 1-6, lower than March figures[2] External Demand - Port container throughput increased by 11.1% year-on-year, with international cargo flight numbers rising by 34.8%[2] - China's export container shipping rates stabilized with a slight increase of 0.4% week-on-week, ending a continuous decline since mid-January[2] Risks - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[2]