Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is considering dissolving the House of Representatives for an early election at the start of the upcoming Diet session on January 23, aiming to expand the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) seats while support rates remain high [1][4]. Group 1: Election Preparation - Two potential election schedules have been proposed: one for January 27 announcement and February 8 voting, and another for February 3 announcement and February 15 voting [3]. - Historically, there have been four instances where the House of Representatives was dissolved on the same day as the Diet's opening, with no policy speech delivered by the Prime Minister in those cases [3]. - If the House is dissolved, the approval of the fiscal budget for 2026 may be delayed until after April [3]. Group 2: Political Landscape - The LDP currently holds 199 seats in the House of Representatives, and with the addition of the Japan Innovation Party, they have a total of 233 seats, which is just over half [4]. - The LDP's legislative agenda, including economic stimulus and defense spending, requires absolute control over the Diet, which is currently not the case [4]. - Concerns within the LDP about the political vacuum created by an early election have been expressed, particularly regarding the alignment of this decision with the government's priority to address rising prices [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - Since the establishment of Kishida's cabinet in October, public support has remained high, with recent polls indicating a support rate of 75%, stable above 70% for three consecutive months [4]. - Japan's inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan's target for 44 consecutive months, with the core consumer price index rising by 3.0% year-on-year as of November [8]. - The Japanese economy has shown signs of negative growth, with a reported decline of 1.8% in real GDP for Q3 2025, attributed to a sharp contraction in external demand [8]. Group 4: Opposition and Collaboration - The leader of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has expressed intentions to collaborate with the Komeito party for the upcoming election [5]. - The opposition aims to present a moderate reform agenda focused on practical policies addressing public concerns such as inflation and social security [5][6]. - There are indications of a potential alliance between the opposition and former coalition partners, signaling a shift in the political landscape [5].