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刘煜辉:中美工业power和金融power严重失配 ,中国供应链的power比例或已超过60%
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-26 08:47
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Fund High-Quality Development Conference emphasizes the need for a new path for the high-quality development of the fund industry, highlighting the significant growth of China's industrial power and its implications for global manufacturing [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Power and Global Manufacturing - China's industrial manufacturing output is projected to account for 35% of global manufacturing output by 2024, surpassing the combined output of the second to tenth largest manufacturing countries [3]. - By 2030, China's total industrial manufacturing output is expected to reach 45% of the global total, indicating a strong upward trend in its manufacturing capabilities [3]. - The technological density of China's supply chain is estimated to exceed 60%, reflecting a significant shift towards high-tech and high-value production remaining in China [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impacts on Supply Chains - In response to geopolitical risks, many Chinese companies have relocated lower-end supply chain components to Southeast Asia, Mexico, and India over the past five to six years [4]. - China's exports to ASEAN have increased from $400 billion in 2018 to over $1.1 trillion today, effectively doubling in six years [4]. - The shift in supply chains has resulted in a concentration of technology-intensive production remaining in China, further enhancing its industrial power [4].