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动态均衡测算模型(TVP - BEER)
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人民币未现系统性偏离 内核稳定支撑走势稳健
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 16:38
Core Viewpoint - The article introduces a dynamic equilibrium measurement model (TVP-BEER) under the framework of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to systematically assess the equilibrium exchange rate of the RMB from 2010 to 2025, indicating that the RMB maintains inherent stability driven by economic fundamentals despite global financial fluctuations [1] Summary by Sections RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model Selection - Four main paths have formed in the research of equilibrium exchange rates, including the price benchmark method (PPP), fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER), natural real exchange rate (NATREX), and BEER method, each with its advantages and limitations [2][3] Introduction of Time-Varying Parameters - The article ultimately selects the BEER framework for estimating the RMB equilibrium exchange rate due to its empirical operability and explanatory power, incorporating various fundamental and financial variables, and introduces time-varying parameters (TVP) to better reflect changes in economic conditions [4] Data and Measurement Results - The RMB's real effective exchange rate (REER) has shown phase characteristics over the past 15 years, with significant appreciation driven by productivity differences and trade conditions before 2010, followed by stability despite external shocks [5][6] Bilateral Exchange Rate USD/CNY - The USD/CNY exchange rate has also exhibited phase fluctuations, aligning with the equilibrium levels derived from the BEER model, with the TVP-BEER model showing minimal deviation from actual trends during structural shifts [7] Robust Progress Under Equilibrium - The static BEER model indicates significant impacts from various variables on the RMB's equilibrium level, while the TVP-BEER model reveals the dynamic evolution of these determinants, maintaining close alignment with equilibrium despite external pressures [8][9] Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to continue a stable trajectory, supported by ongoing economic structural transformation, policy coordination, and gradual internationalization, with limited risks of significant deviation from equilibrium [10]