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天富能源:2024年报及25Q1季报点评:24年减值影响业绩,25年期待成本下行-20250513
海通国际· 2025-05-13 00:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting a target price of RMB 8.55 based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue was RMB 9.27 billion, a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year (YOY), with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 250 million, down 42.3% YOY due to increased credit loss provisions [4][9]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 2.21 billion, a decline of 3.1% YOY, but a net profit of RMB 180 million, reflecting a 22.8% increase YOY [4][9]. - Anticipated cost improvements in 2025 include a slight reduction in electricity prices and a potential decrease in coal prices, which could enhance profitability [4][9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials for 2025-2027 include: - Revenue: RMB 9.57 billion in 2025, RMB 10.05 billion in 2026, and RMB 10.55 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 3.2%, 5.0%, and 5.0% respectively [3][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 618 million in 2025, RMB 706 million in 2026, and RMB 831 million in 2027, with growth rates of 148.7%, 14.3%, and 17.6% respectively [3][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS): projected at RMB 0.45 for 2025, RMB 0.51 for 2026, and RMB 0.60 for 2027 [4][9]. Operational Developments - By the end of 2024, the company had an operational capacity of 4.06 million kW, with plans to add 1.3 million kW in 2025 [4][9]. - The company completed a power supply of 21.23 billion kWh in 2024, an increase of 1.42 billion kWh YOY, attributed to enhanced cooperation with the Seventh Division grid [4][9].