Core Viewpoint - The stock buyback activity is declining as companies enter the blackout period before earnings season, which may lead to increased market volatility despite record high indexes [1][10]. Group 1: Stock Buybacks - A stock buyback is when a company repurchases its own shares, which can enhance earnings per share and support stock prices [2]. - Stock buyback announcements for 2025 are approaching $1 trillion, nearing the end-of-year average, indicating strong initial interest [3]. - Actual buyback executions have recently dropped significantly due to the buyback blackout window, which is a period when companies typically pause buybacks before earnings announcements [5][6]. Group 2: Blackout Period - The blackout period lasts from mid-August to mid-October, during which the number of companies in the S&P 500 halting buybacks peaks [7][8]. - September is historically the weakest month for stock performance, coinciding with the widening of the blackout window [9]. - The buyback bid is expected to return after mid-October as companies exit the blackout period and earnings results are released [10]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The current market is at record highs, with the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy, but the absence of buyback support may lead to larger daily fluctuations [10][12]. - Attention should be paid to the VIX volatility index, which tends to increase during September and October, indicating potential stock weakness [11]. - Long-term government rates can also impact stock performance, especially when buybacks are low [12].