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PG&E (PCG) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-23 16:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core earnings per share for Q3 2025 are $0.50, and $1.14 for the first nine months of 2025, with full-year guidance narrowed to a range of $1.49-$1.51, reflecting a 10% increase over 2024 [4][14] - The company introduced 2026 EPS guidance of $1.62-$1.66, indicating a 9% increase from the 2025 midpoint [4] - The five-year capital plan through 2030 is set at $73 billion, supporting average annual rate base growth of 9% [4][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has constructed and energized 1,000 miles of power lines underground in high fire-risk areas, marking a significant milestone [8] - Vegetation clearance around nearly 4,000 transmission structures has been completed, which is expected to contain most transmission-related ignitions [8] - The deployment of 8,500 new sensor devices this year builds on the previous year's rollout of 10,000 devices, enhancing system monitoring capabilities [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The data center pipeline remains robust at over 9.5 GW, with modest net attrition in applications since June, while projects in the final engineering stage continue to grow [11] - The company is focused on attracting data centers designed to support AI inference models, benefiting from Northern California's existing fiber network [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to a disciplined capital allocation approach, with a focus on safety, reliability, and resiliency improvements while enabling economic growth [16][18] - The strategy includes a no-big-bets plan that emphasizes customer beneficial investments and maintaining investment-grade ratings [17][21] - The company aims to keep customer bills flat to down by 2027 through operational efficiencies and cost reductions [10][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the effectiveness of physical risk mitigation measures, with a 35% reduction in CPUC-reportable ignitions year-to-date compared to 2024 [7] - The company is optimistic about the legislative process regarding wildfire risk mitigation and the potential for constructive legislation [5][22] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a conservative planning approach to ensure consistent delivery for customers and investors [70] Other Important Information - The company is targeting a dividend payout ratio of 20% by 2028, with plans to maintain that level through 2030 [17][78] - Fitch has upgraded the company's parent rating to investment grade, indicating positive momentum in credit ratings [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on SB 254 process - Management provided timeline details for stakeholder abstracts and final recommendations, indicating key dates for the process [26] Question: Cost of capital case status - Management confirmed that a proposed decision is expected in November 2025, with confidence in the strength of their case [27] Question: Policy reform recommendations for SB 254 - Management highlighted significant improvements from phase one and expressed optimism about the governor's commitment to phase two [36][38] Question: Undergrounding decision timeline - Management confirmed that final recommendations on the 10-year undergrounding procedure are on the agenda for the upcoming commission meeting [39] Question: Credit agency conversations - Management indicated ongoing positive discussions with Moody's and S&P, with progress on phase two being a significant trigger for potential upgrades [61] Question: O&M cost reduction targets - Management expressed confidence in meeting or exceeding the 2% reduction target for O&M costs this year [63] Question: Comfort with 2026 EPS guidance - Management reassured that conservative planning is in place, regardless of the cost of capital proceeding outcomes [70] Question: Energy storage project as a blueprint - Management expressed excitement about the CRC energy storage microgrid project and its potential for replication in other communities [72]