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客车市场的2025年:暴涨与亏损并存,不出海就出局
经济观察报· 2026-02-06 14:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that after the peak of the new energy vehicle replacement cycle, the bus market in 2026 is expected to return to a state of stagnation, with maintaining sales levels being a positive outcome. The industry should focus on eliminating weaker companies to allow stronger ones to gain market share and profit margins, rather than solely pursuing volume growth [1][3]. Group 2 - Recent performance forecasts for A-share listed bus companies indicate significant divergence in profitability for 2025, with some companies expecting nearly double net profit growth while others face "growth without profit" [2]. - Jinlong Automobile and Zhongtong Bus are projected to see substantial net profit increases in 2025, while Ankai Bus is expected to shift from profit to loss [6][8]. - The bus industry is experiencing a small growth peak in 2025, with sales of buses over 6 meters reaching 137,212 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.84% [2]. Group 3 - Jinlong Automobile anticipates a net profit of approximately 463 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 193.68%, driven by growth in overseas markets [6]. - Zhongtong Bus expects a net profit between 320 million and 410 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.28% to 64.36% [7]. - Yutong Bus, which did not release a full-year forecast, achieved a net profit of 3.292 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.38% [8]. Group 4 - Ankai Bus is projected to incur a loss of 50 million to 60 million yuan in 2025, primarily due to intense market competition leading to a decline in product gross margins [8]. - The company has struggled with profitability since 2013, with only one year of positive non-recurring net profit [8]. Group 5 - The article emphasizes the importance of internationalization for bus companies, stating that without expanding into overseas markets, companies may struggle to compete domestically [11]. - The demand for buses in international markets is expected to grow, particularly for new energy vehicles, as older buses require replacement [12].