Core Viewpoint - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences will be announced on October 13, 2025, with a focus on significant real-world issues in recent years, making predictions about the winners challenging [3][4]. Selection Process - The selection process for the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is rigorous and lengthy, involving nominations from around 3,000 scholars and multiple rounds of evaluation by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences [5]. - The final decision on the winners is made through a majority vote by the Academy, and this decision is final and cannot be appealed [5]. Citation Data as a Predictor - Citation data has become an important reference for predicting potential winners, with papers cited over 10,000 times considered to have Nobel Prize potential [6]. - The previous year's winners had papers with nearly 20,000 citations before winning, indicating a correlation between citation counts and award recognition [6]. - Clarivate's "Highly Cited Researchers" list has been a valuable tool, with 83 researchers from this list eventually winning the Nobel Prize since its inception [6]. Potential Candidates - Notable candidates this year include David Autor and Lawrence F. Katz for their work on wage structure and income inequality, as well as Scott Cunningham, who believes their combined research on skill-biased technological change has strong award potential [8]. - Claudia Goldin, the 2023 winner, has collaborative research with Katz that may be recognized in future awards, suggesting a focus on skill-biased technological change [8]. - The possibility of economists receiving a second Nobel Prize exists, as seen in other scientific fields, with the emphasis on specific contributions rather than lifetime achievements [8]. Other Noteworthy Candidates - Other candidates include Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan for their research on racial discrimination and labor economics, and Nicholas Bloom for his analysis of economic uncertainty [9]. - A prominent trio of candidates includes Steven Berry, Jerry Hausman, and Ariel Pakes, known for their contributions to empirical economics and the BLP model, which is crucial for analyzing product differentiation [10]. - Other frequently mentioned candidates include Philippe Aghion, Robert Barro, Olivier Blanchard, and Marc Melitz, who have made significant contributions to various economic theories [10].

Group 1 - The total prize amount for this year's Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is 11 million Swedish Krona, approximately 8.25 million RMB [1] - The announcement of the Nobel Prize winner will take place on October 13 at 17:45 Beijing time, with the award ceremony scheduled for December in Stockholm [1] - Recent trends in the Nobel Prize selection process show a focus on research addressing significant real-world issues, such as poverty alleviation, financial crises, and gender differences in labor economics [1][3] Group 2 - The selection process for the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is rigorous and lengthy, involving nominations from around 3,000 scholars and multiple rounds of evaluation by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences [3] - Citation data has become an important reference for predicting potential winners, with papers cited over 10,000 times considered to have Nobel Prize potential [3][4] - The Clarivate "Highly Cited Researchers" list has been a valuable indicator, with 83 individuals from this list eventually winning the Nobel Prize since its inception [4] Group 3 - Notable candidates for this year's award include David Autor and Lawrence Katz for their groundbreaking analysis of wage structures and income inequality [6] - The possibility of a second Nobel Prize for an economist exists, as the award recognizes specific contributions rather than lifetime achievements [6] - Other prominent candidates include Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan for their work on racial discrimination and labor economics, as well as Steven Berry, Jerry Hausman, and Ariel Pakes for their contributions to empirical economics [7][8]