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GP高命中率幻象:投资项目减少44%,投资成本大涨66%丨投中嘉川
投中网· 2025-07-27 04:31
Core Viewpoint - The current investment environment is challenging for General Partners (GPs), with a significant increase in project costs and a continuous decline in the total number of investment projects, leading to heightened pressure on investment accuracy and mindset [4][24][25]. Group 1: Investment Performance and Trends - The perception among investors that returns are slow is attributed to a mismatch between investment patience and long-term industry trends [2][3]. - The proportion of quality projects in funds established after 2015 has steadily increased from 27.88% in 2015 to 35.24% in 2020 [6][9]. - Despite the increase in hit rates for quality projects, the total number of investments has decreased, with the average number of projects per fund dropping from 37.3 in 2015 to 21.0 in 2020, a decline of nearly 44% [10][13]. Group 2: Investment Costs and Market Dynamics - The core cost of quality projects has risen significantly, with the proportion of core costs in funds increasing from 22.95% for 2014 vintage funds to 35.34% for 2020 vintage funds [16][20]. - The average investment amount in the VC/PE market has increased from $15.74 million to $22.59 million, a rise of 43.6% from 2014 to 2020 [20]. - The average investment cost for high-return projects has surged from 240 million yuan to 400 million yuan, reflecting a 66.7% increase [22]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Future Outlook - GPs are adjusting their strategies by directing more funds towards growth and late-stage projects, sacrificing project quantity for higher certainty [21]. - The current market environment is seen as a natural transition towards a "quality-first" approach, with the industry moving away from rapid growth while maintaining resilience and upward momentum [25].