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西部证券:IDC行业中长期景气向上 个股方面关注润泽科技(300442.SZ)等
智通财经网· 2025-07-22 06:50
Industry Overview - The IDC industry is currently experiencing supply disruptions due to high-end chip supply issues in North America, but indicators such as shortened delivery times and improved shelf rates are showing positive trends that are expected to continue into the second half of the year [1] - In the medium to long term, the IDC industry maintains an upward trend in prosperity, with a focus on optimizing financing costs and power supply, as well as expanding value-added services [1] Demand Measurement Approaches - Four methodologies are proposed for measuring IDC demand: 1) Capital expenditure perspective, analyzing BBAT's capital expenditure plans to derive AI server demand and corresponding IDC energy consumption 2) Token usage perspective, linking token demand to FLOPS and GW requirements 3) Revenue perspective, predicting future IDC revenues of major listed companies to estimate market size 4) Server shipment perspective, tracking quarterly AI server shipments to infer IDC shelf demand [1] Valuation of IDC Companies - EBITDA is considered a more accurate reflection of a company's operational performance and industry characteristics compared to net profit, with EV/EBITDA being the preferred valuation method for IDC companies [2] - The North American IDC leader Equinix's transition to REITs is highlighted as a model for Chinese IDC companies, emphasizing the importance of REITs for tax and financing advantages and the expansion of value-added services [2] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong EV/EBITDA valuations, significant reserves, advantageous locations, good customer structures, and favorable financing costs are expected to benefit from the current upward trend in the industry [3] - Specific companies to watch include: - GDS Holdings (IDC leader with substantial reserves and overseas market expansion) - Runze Technology (rapid capacity expansion and collaboration with ByteDance) - Aofei Data (core supplier to Baidu with favorable contract terms and active expansion) [3]