推理Scaling Law

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李开复:中美大模型竞争关键在于开源与闭源之争
格隆汇APP· 2025-07-17 11:06
Core Insights - The future of technology in the next 5 to 10 years will be dominated by generative AI, which is considered a significant leap from ChatBot to Agent [3][4] - The competition between the US and China in AI is not about which company is stronger, but rather a contest between open-source and closed-source approaches [5][16] Investment Opportunities - Nvidia remains a solid investment choice, but investors should look for the right entry points [6][19] - Among the US tech giants, Microsoft is favored due to its willingness to invest boldly and its clear understanding of profitable business models [22] AI Development Trends - The era of AI 2.0, driven by generative AI, is expected to create substantial economic value across various industries [8] - The scaling law for pre-training has reached its limits, while the scaling law for inference is emerging as a new paradigm for model intelligence growth [9][10] - China's open-source model development is catching up to the US, with significant contributions from companies like Alibaba and DeepSeek [13][17] Competitive Landscape - The US has strong payment capabilities from both enterprises and consumers, which China has yet to match [14] - The key competition between the US and China lies in the open-source versus closed-source model, with China currently favoring the open-source route [15][16]