Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential political scenarios in Venezuela as the U.S. seeks to overthrow the Maduro government, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding negotiations with the interim government led by Rodriguez [2][3]. Group 1: Successful Negotiations - The U.S. is expected to first engage in negotiations with the remnants of the Maduro government, with Rodriguez as a key negotiator [3]. - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio acknowledged maintaining contact with Rodriguez, who indicated a willingness to cooperate [3]. - There is speculation that if Maduro is captured, the interim government may agree to a U.S.-led transition, with key figures like Defense Minister Padrino and Interior Minister Cabello also holding significant power [5]. Group 2: Risk of Civil War - If negotiations between the U.S. and the Venezuelan government fail, there is a risk of civil war, as no party may be able to effectively govern the country [7]. - Maduro has maintained control through security forces and the military despite the economic collapse, with a strong support base remaining from the Chavez era [7]. - The presence of criminal organizations linked to drug trafficking within the military could lead to further chaos [7]. Group 3: Opposition Taking Power - There is a possibility of the opposition taking power, but Trump has expressed skepticism about this scenario [8]. - Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has announced a candidate for the presidency and shows readiness to assume power, although her close ties with the U.S. may generate public backlash [8]. - Trump indicated that there has been no contact with Machado and expressed doubts about her ability to lead without domestic support [8].