新一代煤电升级改造
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“十五五”时期煤电定位谋变
中国能源报· 2025-11-24 06:45
Core Viewpoint - The coal power sector is transitioning from being the "main force" in electricity generation to becoming a "regulator" that ensures system stability, driven by the integration of large-scale renewable energy and carbon reduction goals [3][5]. Group 1: Transition of Coal Power - The role of coal power is undergoing a profound restructuring, shifting from providing electricity to ensuring the stability of the power system [3][4]. - The installed capacity of coal power has decreased from 57.33% in 2016 to an expected 35.7% in 2024, while the absolute capacity remains over 1.2 billion kilowatts [5]. - The increasing volatility of the power system due to the explosive growth of renewable energy sources necessitates coal power's reliable output as a last line of defense against extreme weather [5][6]. Group 2: Challenges in Transition - Coal power faces multiple challenges, including market reforms that lead to fluctuating coal prices and insufficient auxiliary service revenues, resulting in some units operating at a loss [5][13]. - Stricter carbon emission constraints require the coal power industry to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reduce carbon intensity by over 65% compared to 2005 levels [5][13]. Group 3: New Generation Coal Power - The concept of "new generation coal power" has emerged, focusing on clean carbon reduction, safety, reliability, efficient regulation, and intelligent operation [6][10]. - The industry is moving towards optimizing existing units through parameter upgrades to meet the demands of the new power system [8][10]. Group 4: Flexibility and Clean Energy - The flexibility of coal power is being enhanced through systematic upgrades, addressing challenges such as low-load stability and high-efficiency operation across a wide load range [11][12]. - The coal power sector is exploring dual pathways for clean carbon reduction, including the elimination of outdated units and the promotion of ultra-supercritical units, alongside the adoption of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies [11][12]. Group 5: Policy and Market Mechanisms - The transition of coal power requires not only technological breakthroughs but also collaborative efforts in policy mechanisms and market environments [13]. - The capacity price policy is crucial for supporting coal power, allowing recovery of fixed costs and reducing investment pressure during the upgrade period [13]. - A comprehensive market system that includes energy, auxiliary services, and capacity markets is recommended to reflect the regulatory value of coal power [13]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The coal power sector is expected to experience a development path of "increasing capacity while controlling output" leading to a plateau and gradual decline in the future [13]. - The future of coal power is not about exiting the market but rather about "rebirth" through technological upgrades and innovative models, positioning it as an indispensable stabilizer in the new power system [13].