"前端"CXO 上游迎新一轮景气度，"后端"商业化生产 迎收获期 20250613 摘要 全球制药巨头面临专利悬崖，预计 2027-2028 年将有约 1,800 亿美元 年收入的药品专利到期，促使企业控费并积极寻求外部管线引进，创新 药出海 BD 趋势增强，带动研发需求回暖。 国内创新产业链上游企业如百普赛斯、毕得医药、百奥赛图等订单提升， CRO 领域关注昭衍新药、易诺思、泰格医药，CDMO 领域药明康德、 博腾股份、天宇股份及普洛药业表现突出。 海外 CXO 公司业绩复苏，早期 CRO 领域乐观，但 IRA 法案带来控费压 力，下游企业转向部分外包模式，同时为保持管线多样性，大药企积极 寻求外部引进，推动创新药出海 BD。 国内上市公司研发费用占收入比重自去年下半年起呈现提升趋势，表明 企业在研发投入方面更加积极，以应对市场变化并保持竞争力。 Biotech 公司研发费用结构中，临床试验费用占比提升，但 2024 年海 外 BD 项目中临床前阶段项目占比显著提升，拉动国内临床前研发需求 和早期项目研发热情。 生命科学行业上游企业市场趋势回暖，国内市场需求不断增加，研发需 求复苏分为几个阶段，目前处于 1 ...

科伦博泰作为中国创新药出海的代表企业，具有显著的产业时代特征和强大的 确定性。自 2025 年初以来，科伦博泰展现了强劲的股价表现，其后续发展也 被认为具有高度确定性。科伦博泰拥有 ADC 和非 ADC 两大平台，重点开发肿 瘤和非肿瘤领域的 ADC 产品，其中包括 264、TROP ADC、A166 HER2 ADC 等。此外，公司还在自免领域广泛布局，如 PDL1 A167、西妥昔单抗生 科伦博泰 20250611 摘要 科伦博泰核心品种 264 是首款获批国产 ADC，也是全球首款获批肺癌 适应症的 top two ADC，分子设计及临床数据具优势，默沙东预计其肿 瘤分子将在 2035 年贡献 250 亿美元峰值销售，264 将是主要贡献者， 今年销售目标 8-10 亿，下半年有望获批 EGFR 突变肺癌二线治疗。 科伦博泰未来产品线加速价值兑现，167CD7 单抗、166 等进入商业化 阶段，形成 IO 加 ADC 综合产品矩阵，布局呼吸系统和血液病等大患者 群体赛道。2025 年是商业化兑现元年，后续将有更多催化事件，如海 外三期数据读出及 FDA 递交 NDA。 截至 2024 年底，科伦博泰净利 ...

中国医药大数据服务平台医药魔方统计，今年1～5月，中国创新药企对外授权交易总金额已达455亿美元，超 过2024年上半年的交易总额。尤其是三生制药、石药集团等创新药企还接连创下巨额交易，成为中国创新 药"出海"过程中的亮点。 众所周知，创新药产业准入门槛高、研发风险大，失败率也高。在此背景下，国际医药巨头凭借全球渠道网络 和市场资源优势，寻求有潜力的创新药管线，以此降低研发成本，同时丰富自身管线，获得更好的投资回报。 此时，中国创新药的优势便尤其明显：一是人才储备深厚；二是临床试验高效，能加速试验进程并降低成本； 三是成本控制优势显著。 在全球医药创新版图上，中国创新药正成为一股不可忽视的力量。 当前中国创新药企业正从"模仿创新"转向"原始创新"，在此过程中，药企选择BD（商务拓展）交易，很重要 的原因仍是解决融资问题。一方面，创新药企将部分管线变现以缓解融资难问题，毕竟当前我国一二级市场创 新药融资仍在缓慢恢复中，提前变现部分管线可尽快回笼部分资金；另一方面，与海外药企分工合作，借助其 海外临床资源和分销网络，可加快推动管线的获批和商业化，实现"自我造血"。 不过，中国医药创新促进会近日公开表示，如果国产创 ...

Core Insights - Recent favorable policies have been released, significantly benefiting the innovative drug sector, with a clear support stance from regulators towards innovative drugs [1][2] Group 1: Policy Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has published guidelines for the adjustment of the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance drug catalog, including a commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog, which opens new payment avenues for high-value innovative drugs [1] - On July 1, the NHSA and the National Health Commission jointly released 16 support measures for the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including the opening of medical insurance data to pharmaceutical companies and the establishment of a commercial insurance innovative drug catalog [2] Group 2: Market Performance - In 2024, domestic biopharmaceutical companies achieved over 100 licensing transactions, with a total disclosed transaction amount reaching $52.3 billion, marking a historical high compared to $41.9 billion in 2023 [3] - As of June 12, 2025, the disclosed transaction amount reached 50.1 billion yuan, indicating that Chinese innovative drugs are recognized as high-quality assets globally [3] Group 3: Company Performance - WuXi AppTec (603259) expects a revenue of approximately 20.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 20.64%, and an adjusted net profit of approximately 6.3 billion yuan, up about 44.43% [3] - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607) anticipates a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 52% [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that despite short-term fluctuations, the innovative drug sector remains promising over a 2-3 year horizon, with significant potential for overseas projects and increased foreign investment in Hong Kong-listed innovative drugs [4] - Investment opportunities are recommended in innovative drugs and related industries, particularly focusing on pipeline realization, performance growth, and business collaborations [4]

不过，中国医药创新促进会近日公开表示，如果国产创新药企过多把优质的研发管线授权出去，中长期 可能会导致优质国产创新成果流失。因此，业内呼吁应多举措优化创新药企在国内的投融资环境。 值得一提的是，随着科创板第五套标准的重启、地方产业并购基金的落地，以及港股市场流动性环境的 改善，中国创新药行业的一级市场退出机制得到优化，资本市场也逐渐回暖。可以预期，中国创新药将 在国际舞台上绽放更加耀眼的光芒。 （文章来源：证券时报） 在全球医药创新版图上，中国创新药正成为一股不可忽视的力量。中国医药大数据服务平台医药魔方统 计，今年1～5月，中国创新药企对外授权交易总金额已达455亿美元，超过2024年上半年的交易总额。 尤其是三生制药、石药集团等创新药企还接连创下巨额交易，成为中国创新药"出海"过程中的亮点。 众所周知，创新药产业准入门槛高、研发风险大，失败率也高。在此背景下，国际医药巨头凭借全球渠 道网络和市场资源优势，寻求有潜力的创新药管线，以此降低研发成本，同时丰富自身管线，获得更好 的投资回报。此时，中国创新药的优势便尤其明显：一是人才储备深厚；二是临床试验高效，能加速试 验进程并降低成本；三是成本控制优势显著。 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略专题 大波动带来的机会 证券研究报告 2025Q2 大类资产复盘笔记 大类资产回顾：全球资产历经关税风险释放 1）大类资产总览：2025 年二季度，A 股探底回升，重回 3400 点，中债利率 下行，商品超跌后震荡，全球股指多数收涨。2）A 股：二季度宽基指数多数 收涨，微盘股大涨，金融、成长风格领涨，国防军工、银行行业领涨。分区 间来看，4 月集中于特朗普关税落地，市场超跌反弹；5 月指数震荡、主线 快速轮动；6 月稳定币、创新药双线并行，沪指站稳 3400 点。3）中债：债 市一季度收益率窄幅震荡下行，期限利差走阔，利率曲线趋于陡峭。存单利 率与 10 年期国债利率倒挂一度被打破，但季末回归倒挂状态。信用利差冲 高回落。4）商品：二季度主要大宗商品涨跌不一，黄金高位震荡，原油冲高 回落，南华工业品指数超跌后震荡回升。5）二季度全球股指多数收涨，美股 走强，欧股分化，韩国综合指数领涨。AH 溢价指数一度跌至五年来新低。6） 美债：历经流动性踩踏、美国国债"发飞"，二季度美债利率冲高回落。 A 股：A 股探底回升，南下资金、ETF 冲高回落 1）基本面：二季度基本面表现偏弱，三大经济数据 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a significant trend towards "going global," with a notable increase in the number of innovative drugs being developed and recognized internationally [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - China has become the global leader in the number of innovative drugs under research, with original innovative drugs accounting for 24% of the global total [3][4]. - The License-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs have been increasing in terms of quantity, upfront payments, and total transaction amounts from 2019 to 2024 [5][6]. - In 2024, the total amount of business development (BD) transactions for Chinese innovative drugs is projected to reach $52.3 billion, with upfront payments of $4.1 billion, both setting new records [3]. Group 2: Market Opportunities and Challenges - Key therapeutic areas for Chinese biopharmaceutical companies to focus on include oncology, autoimmune diseases, and metabolic diseases such as diabetes and obesity [2][7]. - Despite the growth, challenges remain for Chinese drugs entering Western markets, including regulatory barriers, high clinical costs, and a lack of familiarity with overseas pharmaceutical regulations [6]. - The need for a global strategy is emphasized, with suggestions for creating a supportive international regulatory environment and cross-border platforms to facilitate the global expansion of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [6][7]. Group 3: Financial and Technological Support - There is a call for nurturing patient capital to better align financial resources with technological innovation in the pharmaceutical sector [7]. - The application of artificial intelligence in medicine is highlighted as a means to enhance precision medicine and improve drug development efficiency [7]. - The importance of collaboration among Chinese biopharmaceutical companies is stressed, advocating for a shift from licensing transactions to integrated global research and development [7].

以下文章来源于富国基金 ，作者前瞻布局 富国基金 . 关注富国基金，获取富国基金独家专业又有料的投资资讯，富二姑娘为您提供专业服务。富国基金，投资未 来 · 在一起。 市 场 总 是 充 满 惊 喜 —— 时 隔 8 个 月 ， A 股 重 新 站 上 3500 点 ， 机 器 人 、 创 新 药 、 光 伏 等 赛 道 表 现 活 跃，。这不仅仅是简单的指数反弹，更是"政策暖风+产业升级+资金重构"三重共振下的新起点。 站在这个关键节点，我们不禁要问：AI应用爆发在即，哪些公司能真正兑现业绩？创新药出海加速， 如何捕捉下一个10倍牛股？港股估值洼地，持续吸引南向资金，哪些资产被严重低估？下面特别梳理 了主流券商研究所2025下半年最为关注的投资主线，助力客官把握市场脉搏，在新起点上，实现高效 布局! 展望2025下半年：市场主流投资机会在哪里？ 站在年中节点回望，A股上半年的震荡如同为下半场蓄力的弓弦，三大力量正悄然拧成合力： 政策底的"加法效应"，政策已从"托底"转向"发力"、盈利周期的"V型曙光"刺破阴霾、全球科技的"同 频共振"更添变数。对于当下的市场，我们普遍认为它更像是"五月的麦田"：政策是阳光， ...

Core Insights - The total transaction amount for Chinese innovative drugs going abroad reached $48.4 billion in the first half of this year, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024 and setting a historical record [1] - The innovative drug sector is becoming a typical representative of China's breakthroughs in high-tech fields, alongside industries like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Industry Evolution - The journey of Chinese innovative drugs began over 20 years ago, with significant milestones including the establishment of early companies like Betta Pharmaceuticals and the introduction of targeted cancer therapies [5][6] - The reform of drug approval processes initiated by the former National Medical Products Administration in 2015 aligned domestic standards with international ones, encouraging new drug development and expediting approvals [6][8] - The introduction of the STAR Market in 2019 allowed unprofitable biotech companies to go public, providing a boost to the nascent innovative drug sector [8][9] Group 2: Recent Developments - Major transactions in the past six months include a record $12.5 billion upfront payment by Pfizer for a dual-antibody innovative drug from 3SBio, along with other significant deals exceeding $1 billion by companies like Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine [4] - The recent issuance of supportive measures by the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission indicates a favorable regulatory environment for innovative drug companies [4] Group 3: R&D and Market Dynamics - The Chinese innovative drug industry has shifted from a follow-the-leader strategy to focusing on original innovations, with companies like Akeso developing competitive PD-1 dual antibodies that outperform established products [15][17] - The number of clinical trials in China has increased significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2019 to 2024, reflecting a growing commitment to R&D [20] - The successful approval of innovative drugs like Zepzelca and CAR-T therapies in the U.S. demonstrates the potential of Chinese companies to compete on a global scale [17] Group 4: International Collaboration and Trust - Chinese innovative drug companies are increasingly seeking partnerships with international firms to enhance their credibility and market presence, as seen in the collaboration between Bai Li Tianheng and Bristol-Myers Squibb [23][24] - The shift towards internationalization is evident, with Chinese companies aiming to develop and commercialize their own drugs while adhering to local regulations in new markets [28][30] - The successful navigation of international partnerships has led to improved perceptions of the quality of Chinese clinical data, as demonstrated by the rigorous evaluations conducted by foreign partners [23][24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strong performance of the innovative drug ETF (560900), which saw a more than 2% increase in intraday trading, with significant trading volume and a notable rise in the underlying index [1] - The innovative drug ETF (560900) has shown impressive growth, with a weekly increase leading among comparable funds, and a substantial rise in both scale and shares over the past three months and six months [1] - WuXi AppTec's half-year performance forecast indicates a revenue of approximately 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of about 20.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of around 8.6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 101.92% [1] Group 2 - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is accelerating, with the total value of License-out transactions expected to exceed $43 billion in 2024, accounting for nearly 20% of the global market [2] - The current overseas expansion models include "building ships" (self-declaration for overseas listing) and "borrowing ships" (outsourcing or establishing NewCo), with successful examples like BeiGene's Zebrutinib and Legend Biotech's Cilta-cel [2] - The total value of outbound licensing transactions reached $51.9 billion in 2024, with $48.4 billion disclosed in the first half of 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory for Chinese innovative drugs [2] Group 3 - Morgan Asset Management is integrating its "Global Vision Investment Technology" product line to assist investors in seizing investment opportunities in quality technology companies amid a new wave of technological advancements driven by AI [2] - Various actively managed funds focus on emerging industry trends, including the Morgan Emerging Power Fund, which aims to capture opportunities in new industries, and the Morgan Smart Connectivity Fund, which targets AI-related sectors [3] - Passive investment options include the Morgan Hang Seng Technology ETF and the Morgan China Innovation Drug Industry ETF, providing investors with easy access to technology and innovative drug sectors [3]