Core Viewpoint - The Oxford Economics Institute warns that if the European Central Bank (ECB) remains inactive in September, it may fall behind the economic situation [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - The next two inflation data releases are likely to be lower than the ECB's predictions according to Oliver Rakau [1] - A stronger euro is expected to negatively impact exports and inflation later this year [1] Group 2: Trade and Economic Risks - The economic growth faces downside risks even if a future agreement reduces uncertainties, particularly with the current 15% tariff level in the U.S. being a new baseline [1] - The ECB may respond slowly to the economic shocks caused by high tariffs [1]