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国盛证券:火电Q3整体业绩向上 风格切换重视电力配置
智通财经网· 2025-10-24 02:41
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the performance of thermal power in Q3 continues to improve, with a rebound in coal prices enhancing expectations for stable electricity prices. Additionally, the improvement in hydropower due to autumn rainfall, along with a shift in investment styles, suggests a focus on asset allocation. The frequent introduction of energy storage policies and the need for improvements in the capacity compensation mechanism highlight the value of adjustable power sources, coupled with expectations for Q3 performance catalysts [1]. Demand Side - In September, the national electricity consumption increased by 4.5% year-on-year. According to data from the National Energy Administration, from January to September, the total electricity consumption reached 77,675 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with industrial power generation accounting for 72,557 billion kilowatt-hours. In September alone, the total electricity consumption was 8,886 billion kilowatt-hours, also reflecting a 4.5% year-on-year growth [2]. Supply Side - In September, the electricity generation from large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.5% year-on-year. Overall, the power production from large-scale industries showed stable growth, with September's generation reaching 8,262 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 1.5% year-on-year increase, and an average daily generation of 275.4 billion kilowatt-hours. From January to September, the total generation was 72,557 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year growth [4]. Breakdown by Type - In September, the electricity generation from large-scale industrial thermal power and wind power shifted from growth to decline, while hydropower saw a turnaround from decline to growth, nuclear power growth slowed, and solar power generation accelerated. Specifically, large-scale industrial thermal power decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, compared to a 1.7% increase in August; large-scale industrial hydropower increased by 31.9%, reversing from a 10.1% decline in August; nuclear power grew by 1.6%, slowing by 4.3 percentage points from August; wind power decreased by 7.6%, down from a 20.2% increase in August; and solar power generation increased by 21.1%, accelerating by 5.2 percentage points from August [5].