Supply and Demand - PTA supply decreased as Yisheng New Materials reduced production to 3.6 million tons, resulting in a PTA operating rate of 77.7% (down 1.4%) [3] - Demand for polyester also saw a slight decline, with operating rates dropping to approximately 91.2% (down 0.8%) [3] - The price of polyester filament has been adjusted downwards by 50-100, with overall sales remaining sluggish due to the off-season and high temperatures, leading to increased inventory levels [3] Market Outlook - Despite maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli facilities, the stable operation of new PTA units and expectations of reduced production in downstream polyester factories have weakened PTA supply-demand outlook [4] - The recent decline in oil prices has limited support for PTA, leading to short-term price resistance, although absolute prices remain supported by raw material costs [4] - The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate within the range of 4600-4900, with a bearish bias at the upper end; some PTA units in South China are expected to undergo maintenance starting in August for three months [4] Cost Analysis - As of July 1, PTA processing fees reached approximately 330 yuan/ton, while TA2509 processing fees were at 350 yuan/ton [2]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货液化气周报 ——库存继续回落 20250622 黎照锋 交易咨询号：Z0000088 从业资格号：F0210135 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 1 主要观点 2 期现市场 3 库存端 4 供给端 5 需求端 周度观点 u 上游：中东局势升级提振油价大幅反弹。基本面OPEC+实际产量低于其声称的声量。货币贬值之下黄金强势以及地缘局 势复杂仍为油价带来支撑。 u 供应：关税降低后，预料国内将积极补库；市场此前对于美国市场缺口也在积极寻求第三方的进口替代，也增加了潜在 供应。国产商品量边际走低，仍低于去年水平。竞品LNG价格与LPG基本持平。海运费低位反弹。 u 库存：库存继续回落，港口库容率回落至近年区间低位。炼厂库容率处于多年同期最低位置，加气站库容率相对偏高； 库存量：港口库存量回落。 u 需求：宏观需求偏弱。燃烧需求处于淡季，汽油消费量处于近四年低位，餐饮消费尚可但近月将面临禁止公费吃喝增量 政策的影响。化工需求反弹，PDH周度产能利用率继续反弹但仍然处于多年区间最低，毛利再度回落；烷基化产能利用 率反 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have surged unexpectedly due to negative signals from Iran regarding nuclear talks, raising questions about whether strong demand in Asia can sustain these prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - The sudden increase in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran's nuclear negotiations [1] - The market is reacting to the potential implications of these negotiations on oil supply and pricing [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - There is a focus on the strength of demand in Asia, which may play a crucial role in supporting oil prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Analysts are assessing whether the robust demand from Asian markets can counterbalance any potential supply disruptions [1]

原油 本周重大变化：OPEC+部分成员国提交补偿性减产承诺。 煤炭 油价展望：60 美元/桶为布油强支撑价。目前油价主要利好包括：1）油价下跌后供应端或将做出反应；2）伊核谈判 不顺利的风险；3）OPEC+的补偿性减产。布油在跌至约 60 美元/桶后，基于以上利好以及情绪修复，从底部涨幅已 超过 10%，该支撑价得到验证，在目前的供需下，布油跌破 60 美元/桶的概率较低。根据目前已发生的利好，油价继 续上行的动力较弱，若看到 OPEC+降低增产速度或美国、巴西等地的原油开采活动降温，则油价将进一步上涨。 本周行情：2025 年 4 月 17 日，布伦特期货价(连续)为 67.96 美元/桶，本周上涨 3.20 美元/桶。WTI 期货价(连续)分 别收于 64.68 美元/桶，本周上涨 3.18 美元/桶。 供给端：可继续预期利好。OPEC+部分成员国提交了新的补偿性减产承诺，虽然补偿性承诺未必会落实，但在当前 也是为油价注射了一支强心剂。在 OPEC+未开启价格战的前提下，基于接近 60 美元/桶的布油价格，可开始预期 OPEC+推迟增产。 需求端：利空。国内公路出行同比下滑，美国成品油需求近期下滑较快；中 ...