Core Viewpoint - The red date futures market has experienced significant volatility, with a notable decline in prices attributed to differing opinions on the expected reduction in production for the new season [2][3][4]. Production Reduction Dispute - The red date futures saw a sharp increase from 8560 yuan/ton to 11825 yuan/ton between June and August, followed by a decline starting from October 17, dropping nearly 1300 yuan/ton in two weeks [3][4]. - There is a consensus that the new season will see a slight reduction in production, but the extent of this reduction is debated, with bulls predicting around 400,000 tons and bears estimating about 550,000 tons [5][6]. Inventory Pressure - As of October 31, 2025, physical inventory of red dates increased to 9348 tons, a 2.69% week-on-week rise and a 120.78% year-on-year increase, primarily due to slow consumption and high old date inventory [6][10]. - Promotional activities have intensified as merchants attempt to clear old date stock, with significant price reductions observed in retail settings [7][10]. New Delivery Regulations - New regulations allow for the delivery of old dates under specific conditions, which may impact market dynamics and pricing strategies [11][12]. - The new delivery rules are expected to stabilize the futures market while aligning it more closely with the spot market [12][13]. Future Price Trends - Despite current pressures, the long-term outlook for red date prices remains optimistic due to strong export growth and potential demand increases [13][14]. - The current mainstream purchase price for new dates ranges from 6.50 to 8.00 yuan/kg, with futures prices nearing the lower end of the expected range [14].