美国商务部长卢特尼克同意鲍威尔通过维持高利率，每年让美国付出约7000亿美元代价的说法。 ...

故日内操作上张津镭建议： 黄金：3368-3370做空，止损3375，目标看3340-3320-3300一线。站稳3375，则回调出空做多，依次看 3390-3400一线。 来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：关税支撑VS技术回调，黄金静待CPI引爆行情 昨日黄金走了一个高位震荡行情，开盘黄金一波急涨至3370上方，随后回落至3350上方，欧盘再度刷新 日内高点至3374美元，但后续吐回全部涨幅，最低是到了3340美元。最终金价是收盘于3343美元，日线 收于一根小阴线。 周二（7月15日）特朗普宣布8月1日对欧盟加征关税，现货黄金价格一度冲高，创下自6月23日以来的三 周新高，让多头投资者欣喜若狂。然而欧盟并未立即强硬报复，并表示仍有谈判的空间，市场担忧情绪 有所降温。不过关税问题仍然是支撑黄金的最大力量。 不过今日晚间公布的美国6月CPI数据很是关键，若数据高于预期（市场预计核心CPI同比3%），可能强 化美联储维持高利率的预期，压制金价；反之若低于预期，可能提振黄金。不过就近期数据来看，CPI 数据利空可能更大。 从技术上来看，隔夜黄金回撤调整后，跌回至3340一线，小时图结构基本已经转向调整预期，且整体运 ...

今日周三（7月9日)国际黄金目前交投于3290美元/盎司，下跌0.35%，最高触及3307.70美元/盎司，最低下探3284.79美元/盎司。目前来看，国际黄金短线偏 向震荡走势。 消息面解读：黄金目前处于政策与风险博弈的边缘。一方面，美联储"维持高利率"立场、强劲就业与高通胀预期令金价承压；另一方面，贸易冲突升级与全 球经济前景不确定性为黄金提供避险底部支撑。若FOMC纪要中释放更强烈的"耐心"信号，可能加剧金价下行压力。关注3250美元支撑区域是否守稳，同时 密切追踪美联储官员本周言论与CPI数据，寻找方向性突破契机。 黄金走势分析：黄金中期结构上来看，现在自3500历史高位回调走的是第三次回撤，这波回撤还在运行中，需要去关注回撤运行的点位去确认后市的趋势。 首先，关注一下绿色线段反弹3248这里能否有效下破，才能续看到3167位置；其次3167到达后关注反弹力度后再去顺推后市有没有可能跌下红色线段的起涨 点。现在从四小时级别上能明显得到信息有：本月的反弹3365是处于绿色线段起跌点之下，那么接下来这个位置作为短期高点关注，去延续看下行状态。故 中期结构上，阻力3365，支撑3248，操作上依托下行趋势选 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold exhibited a volatile pattern with an intraday range of approximately 251 points, facing resistance near the H1 trend line before retreating to a low of 3312 and then rebounding, closing as a small shadow candlestick [1] - The market is currently experiencing a dual challenge with geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand potentially driving gold prices higher, while the Federal Reserve's high interest rate expectations exert downward pressure [1] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3360-3363, with a short-term pullback pressure noted after breaking above the H1 trend line [1] Group 2: Euro Market Analysis - The Euro continued its bullish trend, breaking previous highs to around 1.1665, closing with a bullish candlestick, driven by optimistic economic outlooks in Europe and a weaker dollar [7] - Resistance levels for the Euro are set at 1.175 and 1.180, while support levels are at 1.157 and 1.162, with a strategy to buy on dips around 1.164-1.165 [9] Group 3: GBP/USD Market Analysis - The British Pound extended its gains to 1.3671, closing with a bullish candlestick, influenced by weak labor market signals and easing Middle East tensions, despite expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England [12] - Key resistance levels for GBP/USD are at 1.376 and 1.381, with support at 1.358 and 1.363, recommending a buy on dips around 1.364-1.365 [14] Group 4: GBP/JPY Market Analysis - GBP/JPY broke the H1 trend line, reaching a new high of 198.6, closing with a bullish candlestick, with a pullback observed to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level [16] - Resistance levels are identified at 199.5 and 198.6, with support at 197.0 and 196.2, suggesting a buy on dips around 197.6-197.3 [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. Federal Court ruling has boosted market risk sentiment, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand and a decline in gold prices for four consecutive trading days, reaching a one-and-a-half-week low [1] - Multiple factors are pressuring gold prices, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent weakness in gold prices due to a rebound in the dollar and decreased safe-haven demand, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the U.S. PCE price index on Friday is highlighted as an important reference point for assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and gold price trends [1] - The short-term gold price trend is indicated to be weak, with the Bollinger Bands showing an upward opening, while the short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, continuing to exert pressure on gold prices [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes maintaining a low long position, focusing on buying opportunities after pullbacks, with specific resistance and support levels identified for trading [2][3]

一、基本面： 美国至5月3日当周初请失业金人数公布值为22.8万人，略低于市场预期的23万人，同时较前值24.1万人 有所下降，显示劳动力市场仍保持相对稳健。由于初请失业金人数下降，表明就业市场并未明显恶化， 这可能强化市场对美联储维持较高利率更长时间的预期，从而支撑美元走势，并对以美元计价的黄金构 成一定压力。此外，就业市场的韧性可能削弱投资者对经济衰退的担忧，降低避险需求，进一步抑制金 价上行空间。 关税方面，英美达成贸易协议，美国将保留对英国10%的基准关税、扩大双方市场准入、取消对英钢铝 关税、对美农产品实行0关税、对英汽车进口实行阶梯关税。协议中保留了英国10%的基准关税，同时 取消了对英国钢铝的关税，这一举措可能缓解两国在金属贸易领域的摩擦，降低相关行业的成本压力。 钢铝关税的取消可能提振工业金属需求，但对黄金的直接影响有限，因其更多作为避险资产而非工业商 品。不过，协议中对美国农产品实行零关税的条款可能增加美国农产品对英国的出口，从而改善美国的 贸易平衡，若美元因此走强，黄金作为美元计价资产可能面临短期压力。此外，协议扩大双方市场准 入，可能进一步促进双边贸易，增强市场风险偏好，削弱黄金的避险吸 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent dovish trade signals from the Trump administration are reshaping the dollar pricing logic, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a shift in risk asset preferences [1][3] - The dollar index has dropped to 99.65, down 0.25% from the opening price of 99.90, indicating a dual battle of "policy expectation reversal" and "technical resistance" [1] - The Trump administration's shift in attitude towards the Federal Reserve, moving from criticism to a more cooperative stance, is seen as reducing systemic risks related to political interference in monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Analysts note that the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve is improving, which is strengthening the Fed's policy independence and raising market expectations for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period [3] - CME interest rate futures indicate that traders have reduced their bets on the number of rate cuts by the Fed this year from 2 times to 1.5 times, suggesting a revaluation of the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The dollar index is at a critical juncture; if it can break through the 100.00 level and stabilize above the downward trend line, it could open an upward channel towards the 101.50-102.00 range [3]